Very cool.

Wow, Iaquinta is a huge fav again, granted he was crushing his last fight until he got finished but that's interesting

I guess Damm looked great 2 fights ago but not really last fight

Camozzi is tempting as a dog since I consider him about on par with Natal but he's so bad sometimes, then again Natal isn't exactly lighting the world on fire

Overeem by decision is +432, does anyone think Ben Rothwell survives often enough? He's so slow and bad, but Alistair has been fighting more conservatively since the losses to avoid gassing. Obviously Reem wins unless Rothwell somehow lands, and he should finish Rothwell but it seems tempting

Not Rothwell Decision -2000... I mean, it's so steep why bother, but it's never happening right? Overeem's chin is bad enough that if Rothwell is winning for a round and a half surely he finishes right? If it was lower vig though since Roth Dec is +1000

Lots of steam on Derrick Lewis, I don't really have any feelings one way or the other so but I assume it's smart money

My plays for the next card so far

6.2u Chiesa -138 average
1u Oliveira -130
1u Mousasi +253
0.25u Overeem/Lewis/Chiesa/Oliveira/Scoggins parlay +717

I'm with you on the same fighters SwoopAE, although for 1u each or to win 1u. I don't feel quite as confident as you do to bet that big on Chiesa. I'm probably going to make a small hedge on Lauzon by sub when it comes available since that's his main way to win. I also like Mousasi by decision at +530 and put .4u on it. I've been shying away from parlays lately, but I like that one you made, so I tailed that for .25u at +737.

Think Chiesa is one if the most valuable lines of the year. He is going to smash Lauzon.

Derick Lewis steam is Definitely smart money. Meathead loses to every good opponent he fights, and wilts to aggression, and Lewis is just that.

Chiesa dropped back to -131 on Pinny and is -140 everywhere else so I added another 1.8u to take it to 8u total at -136ish average

I can't help but think Chiesa is the best line of the year so far either at -131, Lauzon can sub anyone but Chiesa has decent BJJ and current Lauzon will need to land a random big shot early or he's just going to get pressed up against the cage and/or taken down because Chiesa is so much stronger than him

Also added 0.5u Lewis -151, didn't realise he had a win over Rosholt or I would have fired when he was closer to evens

Don't see value in Damm even at this price. He is a natural 45 fighting a solid 55 in Iaquinta. Look at Medieros vs Jackson from last weeks card. It is always super tough for anyone to fight up a weight class unless there is a huge gap in skill and ability. Damm certainly doesn't have that here.

Chiesa should use speed and range on the feet to beat Lauzon and actually think that keeping it standing at distance is the safest route for him. As solid as Chiesa's ground work is Lauzon has shown ability and tenacity on the ground and the fight is a bit closer there.

Gif just convinced me to make it a full unit on Lewis

Scoggins is tempting too but the price is pretty high so will probably pass

How is chiesa/lauzon over 2.5 at +? Neither should win by ko and ground game should be neutralized on both sides. Seems like over should get there half the time at least

Congo opened at -200 vs lavar johnson, like that a lot

1u: Louisville (-5) vs. Miami + Mousasi = (+588)

Lewis should win. George Foreman tried to recruit this guy into boxing. I doubt Foreman would waste his time unless he had high hopes for someone. Obv. boxing isn't the same as MMA but if he can keep the fights on the feet he's live against anyone. If he wins impressively I'd like to see him vs. Big Country or Hunt.

Kongo -200 against someone who hits hard? No thanks.

Exactly my thoughts. Johnson is at +195 now as money comes in on Kongo. Will probably bet it at +220 or above. I think Kongo will probably look to take Johnson down its risky to stand with a dude that hits as hard as Johnson.

Ya I like Johnson here.

I like Kongo at evens due to if gets the takedown he wins but not laying that vig on someone who hits hard

He did survive Travis Browne a while ago though

Johnson hits hard but is terrible. Sure he can KO Kongo but I don't think he does it more than 1/3 of the time. Johnson has looked like he is slowing down while Kongo has seemed to maintain even at his age. If he can make it through 5 rds with Minakov I think he still has enough value to fade the Johnson KO.

I fired at -190 and -200. For those of you that dont like kongo at -200 you should be all over the U1.5 -155

Anyone have opinion on Moraga/Scoggins? Scoggins showed that he struggled with grappling vs Ortiz. Moraga had a similar fight with Ortiz but won the split dec. Price on Morgag is tempting, seems like this line should be in the 150-75 range but having trouble visualizing the style match up.

Took Mousasi +250 -_- Price on Chiesa is dropping, not sure about your guys' read there.

It's right around where it opened on Pinny atm, price has fluctuated in both directions from -127 to -144 and is currently at -132, unless i'm completely wrong about Lauzon being in the tail end of his prime or past it and Chiesa improving with every fight I like my spot.

Lots of Oliveira and Lewis steam so I guess I got it in good on Oliveira at -130 and -151 on Lewis seems fine. Mousasi steamed slightly too so happy w +253, I do think Jacare wins over half the time but surely the fight is closer than those odds

Damm out to +453, at what point do we fire? Iaquinta's been beaten by Chiesa, Audinwood and recently by Mitch Clarke in a fight he was dominating he got subbed against the flow of the fight, he should handle Damm with ease but if the price keeps rising i'll have to fire Damm eventually, Iaquinta was getting steamed as a big fav against Clarke too and was expected to beat Chiesa from memory as well. Damm looked bad in his last fight but looked good vs Jorge the fight before. He's definitely a decent dog to Iaquinta but once we get above +500 it's tough not to fire against a fighter who can unperform in Iaquinta

I like Scoggins to beat Moraga but would need to watch the Ortiz fight for Scoggins (missed it) to even think about it. If Moraga was +300 i'd be tempted but Scoggins is young and should be improving so will prob stay away

Didn't realise Lashley was fighting again at the Bellator card, could be value fading him if it gets to +700 or whatever even though he's fighting an 8-7 nobody who is 3-7 in his last 10 simply because he's a part-timer who has never beaten anyone good and while it's a tailor made fight he's supposed to win at the end of the day Lashley just isn't very good, I mean he lost to the only two not quite UFC caliber guys he's faced and his best win is a way past his prime Wes Sims. Will definitely be value if he gets a legit Bellator-level guy in his next fight if he wins.

Always found scoggins a but overrated, I actually picked ortiz to beat him. However he did impress me in that fight. Really looked great out there, and that armbar finishes 95% of the time. Think he mstches up real well with Moraga here, not sure I would fire though.

Chiesa isn't losing this one . The line is way off, and I'm shocked everyone else isn't seeing it as well. This is one of those fights where people are going to be kicking themselves for not reading the signs.

why is the over 1.5 at evens for Chiesa/Lauzon. Which of them is supposed to finish this fight? Don't think either has a 25% chance of finishing

Whats this Chas Skelly liike? I thought Sean Soriano looked really good against Kawajiri and is highly rated by his camp so +200 seems like a great price against someone who is not an established fighter. I used to know every UFC fighter on every card relatively well but with the amount of fights going on its not as easy to keep up anymore.

I don't like that bet. I expect one or the other will submit his opponent in the first or second round.

Jimgunn who do u like in chiesa lauzon at current prices nirmally id be on chiesa even bigger than the 8u i have but ive been so wrong lately my confidence is a big down ill feel better about it if most of forum agrees so far i think its 2-1 chiesa in picks here