Wow just seen that Barao had to pull out, seems fairly weird like when Ken Shamrock pulled out against Kimbo hours before the fight doesn't seem legit. They still making this a PPV? should just stream it on fightpass can't see many people paying for it.

My 177 bets w/ Dillasaw and Soto bets cancelled

4.4u Castillo +210ish average
1u Nijem +177
0.5u Baszler +125

Decided not to fire Larkin or Medeiros as it seems like i'm fading sharp money on both

I would have considered adding on Nijem but after the weight debacle guess not

Hopefully Castillo gets his breakthrough win.

Card was never awesome

Well it was never awesome but it did have two title fights, an extra HW fight and some interesting debuts in Cejudo and Soto at one stage so it was at least acceptable for a PPV

Now it'd be considered a weak UFN card despite having a title fight

If you discount the main (which would never be booked normally) you have one fight that might make the main card of a normal PPV (Castillo/Ferguson, which while being main card worthy probably isn't co-main worthy on a PPV, it could co-main a UFN card for sure) and I guess Correia/Baszler is semi-interesting due to Baszler debuting and the 'Correia wants to beat Rousey's three horsewomen gatekeepers enroute to a title shot' storyline

I like Ramsey and Larkin as fighters but you couldn't really call either fight PPV main card worthy

Only bet I have for the card is Castillo at +240, might put a little on Joe Soto is he hits somethings like +950 upwards.

It started out as Jones/Gustafsson 2.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_177

I stand corrected

I'm never betting an underdog early again. I mean I objectively liked Castillo at +196 or whatever but still, even at home the favourite gets steamed instead. Got as much as I want on him now, at least I got the average to around +210. Still tempted to add more but I won't, saving my powder for Chiesa over Lauzon, got a pile on already and may add more if he looks better at weighins

Surely the Jacare/Mousasi line can't get steamed any further right?

We going to get odds on Dillishaw ITD. Think I smash it at -600 or better.

Had to add a bet on Dillashaw ITD even at -245. TJ is a finisher and Joe hardly ever goes to a decision, win or lose.

UFC 177 Risk $726.90

TJ Dillashaw wins ITD (-245) $245.00 for $100.00
Joe Soto/TJ Dillashaw Under 1½ (+150) $50.00 for $75.00
Castillo/Ferguson Under 2½ (-115) $57.50 for $50.00
Ferguson wins in round 1 (+300) $10.00 for $30.00
Bethe Correia (-134) vs Shayna Baszler $67.50 for $50.00
Correia wins by 3 round decision (+140) $60.00 for $84.00
Baszler wins by submission (+475) $25.00 for $118.75
Ferreira/Nijem won't start round 3 (-106) $42.40 for $40.00
Damon Jackson (+100) vs Yancy Medeiros $40.00 for $40.00

Derek Brunson (-130) vs Lorenz Larkin $52.00 for $40.00
Hamilton/Potts Under 1½ (-145) $58.00 for $40.00
Wade/Carrizosa Under 2½ (+150) $20.00 for $30.00

UFC 177 has begun.

Chris Wade def. Cain Carrizosa Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:12


We have now taken the first step towards a Joe Soto vs Chris Cariaso superfight!

the fight with them two heavyweights might be the most brutal stoppage I’ve ever seen

+850 seems like unreal value for Soto, no?

Sigh split decisions. That went badly. +210 tho so whatever. downswings, if chiesa loses to lauzon ill have busted my pinny acc for first time ever probably

Dillashaw by sub +800, wish me luck!

Hit a little Correia/Dillashaw parlay. Didn't watch anything besides a bit of Larkin fight and the Medeiros sub. Anything notable?

I think Ferguson vs Castillo was good.

On the other hand, since you presumably already know the outcome you might not find it that exciting.

In other news:

Dana White: "if Ben Askren keeps winning, he will get a shot over here."

never mind:

Ben Askren ‏@Benaskren 55m
Oh thank you master @danawhite can I please have a shot

haha I like Askren and maybe One FC pay him pretty well to destroy cans. Enjoyed the event thought the majority of the fights were good. Only bet I has was Castillo, thought the decision was correct but in most of those scenarios the hometown fighter gets it.

@elliot/sect we all run bad flying home tomorrow (i bricked main but my gf cashed so that was nice) will sort out what we owe each other from last to cards when I can go over our PMs/bets so we can settle up

I guess castillo +230 has to be fine given it was a SD, disappointing though

On the next card i'm loving the Chiesa line and have a bunch on plus a Mousasi odds play but i've been so off lately who knows

On one hand its good that they're starting to give props to being active off ones back and score takedowns for what they are. But still, I felt decision could have gone to Castillo, he did control Ferguson a lot on the ground and in the standing it was quite even. I just fastforwarded the fight so not entirely sure if I missed anything big.

Hey guys,

Pretty gutting night,

I honestly thought Danny had it, we thought Danny would out strike tony (and I think he did) thought he'd score the takedowns (again he did) and knew ferguson wouldn't be able to sub him on the ground. Plan was to either drop him standing or go for the head and arm (was so close at the end literally 10 more seconds to adjust would have finished it). Really frustrating to have top control for 80% of the fight, take literally no damage at all and lose..... It's fine if all fights are now judged this way but just feels like another robbery in his home town.


Still feel the +190 and above was a great price, this is one of the first fights to be scored this way.

In other news TJ gave me a bit of a mention at the press conference so that was cool.

Are you the hypnotherapist?

Yes