Turns out it's only the second one in UFC, PRIDE, Strikeforce and WEC combined history.

The other:

Was there a fight that got pulled on this card or was this the original lineup?

Didn't know that either, gl gl

Fight got pulled MM was supposed to be co-main but now that fight is on instead of Jones Cormier in Vegas.

And Danny Castillo vs. Tony Ferguson, Lorenz Larkin vs. Derek Brunson, and Bethe Correia vs. Shayna Baszler were all supposed to have been on the UFC 176 card (the August 2 event that got cancelled when Aldo pulled out).

And poor Gray Maynard was supposed to fight Fabrício Camões at UFC 176. They rescheduled it for August 16. But Abel Trujillo pulled out of the Ross Pearson fight. Gray Maynard filled in and we know what happened.

Think i like mousasi chiesa and alvarez prices, thoughts anyone?

Surprised mousasi is that much of a dog, he won their first match and looked amazing in his last fight. The problem is sometime he just decides not to fight.

I locked a bet in on Mousasi at +285. That line is nuts. I would like to bet Chiesa if I had gotten him at the opener of +100. He's pricey now at -170. I'm holding off on Alvarez for now. I might like Cerrone at dog odds in that one.

When that Jacare fight was announced I was pretty eager to bet him against Mousasi and I definitely think he should/will win but I gotta say I'm pretty tempted by that Mousasi price. Any time this fight is on the feet, it's gonna be close and Jacare seems to have quite a bit of confidence in his boxing nowadays. Not that it's at all bad just don't think that's where he should be looking to engage Mousasi. Looks to me like there might be value there.

Nothing really looks good to me this weekend except for maybe Castillo. I'll probably prop him for a small amount by dec +420 but I'm not very confident. Ferguson isn't that great but he can really box and he can wrestle some too. Neither have what you would call great chins. Skillwise this definitely favors Ferguson I'm just not sure he should be -250.

Feel the books might be setting a trap with Dillashaw being only -150 after he ran through Barao already.

Why is Meat a dog to a dude I've never heard of?

Rothwell is like drawing dead against Overeem I think, I mean he is just so plodding. Even bitchmade Overeem should walk through this one.

Agreed there may have been value on Chiesa at the opener not sure about now though.

Nelson looks decent as a dog against Hunt. Probably both guys will be unable to knock the other out early and it will just be a close slugfest where whoever's cardio holds up better ends up winning. Definitely a risky fight for the UFC to market as a five-rounder though I could see that one becoming hideous after 10 minutes.

Lean Cerrone over Alvarez as I think Eddie might fold up under Cerrone's pressure like he did the first time he fought Chandler.

This is getting too long so /stream of consciousness. Just talked to a friend for an hour on the phone about various upcoming fights though so I had a lot swimming in my head...

I agree re: nelson/hunt - hunt has more power but nelson's chin is slightly better although both good, and then nelson has the ground game edge although hunt should have a small edge standing

lewis has been winning on prelims watch his fights i guess id have to rewatch to cap it

Cheisa and Lewis lines both have value imo.

I do feel like Chiesa is a stronger younger hungrier Lauzon and Joe has not lit the world on fire his last few times out I think he might be on the decline

Considering going big on it, medium on Mousasi as an odds play (I see Jacare as something like a -160 fav so I think I like Mousasi +260 or w/e it is and Alvarez mostly because I feel like Cerrone will wilt against a well rounded guy who can both strike and wrestle with him and and Guillard, Barboza and Miller all had him in trouble as well as Pettis outclassing him and RDA (although RDA's looking better in each fight)

It's a tough one to call really i'll probably go small I think it'll be a hard fought back and forth fight I just feel like Alvarez might have the slightest of edges although I might want to rewatch a few of his fights before I fire since from memory I had the second Chandler fight 48-47 Chandler and haven't actually watched a few of his bigger wins. I can't help but feel Cerrone should have lost one or two more than he has though.

It's hard to see how Lauzon beats Chiesa other than landing a big shot in the first minute or subbing him with a triangle or something from the bottom though, Chiesa has so much more power and core strength plus good BJJ he's just going to be on top in the scrambles and I don't see how Lauzon stuffs his takedowns all fight and wins it standing, so it's a random sub or nothing right?

Also trying to find a way Rothwell can beat Overeem, surely he's too slow to land anything, he hits hard but Reem -500 just seems spewy when he's out cold if Rothwell lands even though I can barely think of any scenario where Overeem ever has any offense landed on him.

Think Cerrone wins. Since his lost to RDA he has looked like a different fighter.

His wins over Dunham, martins and Miller he has looked unbeatable. Barboza was stylistically a tough fight, but Cerrone still capitalized on the opportunity he was given, and finished the fight.

Alverez is yet to prove he can beat the best guys in the world. He has some solid wins over the top guys outside of the ufc. Chandler, curran, Aoki, and Kawajiri stick out. However there is no way to know if those guys are good enough to beat the best in the world either.

Also alverez lost to Chandler twice. Regardless of what the judges day, he lost that fight. I'm not willing to put my money on a unproven fighter, vs a guy who has stepped in there with the best in the world , and has been onthe kind of run cerrone is on.

Agree with you in Cheisa. Chiesa is a much better striker, and wrestler. His ground game is more than enough to hold top control and work a bit. The if Lauzon gets aggressive from bottom he will just have his guard smashed.

Don't think a prime Lauzon beats current Chiesa, forget about current Lauzon.


Also agree with overeem. He should smash through Ben here. He is also the only guy at HW i see having a 20%+ chance of beating both Cain and JDS. However I bet on him vs Bigfoot and Browne, think I'm done with him when he passes the -350 mark.

Cerrone didn't look unbeatable against Miller or Barboza, he was losing both fights until he landed the big shot

I might hold off on Alvarez until I get a chance to watch a few of his fights and rewatch Chandler 2

I think I will smash the Chiesa line though when it opens on Pinny. Big movement originally but it's come back a bit, no idea where it goes from here but -145ish looks great

Also loving MM/Cariaso under 4.5 rounds, MM has shown he can finish and while i'm a big Cariaso fan and have bet on him a lot, he is finishable and in 5 rounds I think MM puts him away more than half the time and it's +120 plus we have Cariaso finishes somehow suckout equity

Overeem and Werdum are definitely the only two with a decent chance to beat either Cain or JDS imo (assuming we could Cormier as a LHW and Jones or Gustafsson not moving up etc)

I'd love to see Cain vs Jones and JDS vs Gustafsson, but not going to happen obviously. Would settle for Werdum/Cain which we get and Overeem/JDS assuming they beat Rothwell and Miocic

JDS vs Jones at 205 would be awesome too, I think he could get from his 239 to about 227 or whatever dropping fat/muscle and then cut from there maybe?

I feel 65-75 % of HWs could cut to LHW if they tried... But they never will so w/e.

lol Cain would be like -500 against Reem. Justifiably so. But ya Overeem is just not a guy you can lay big juice on cuz he's liable to wilt at any moment.

Agree with your assessment of Hunt/Nelson Swoop that's my read as well and that doesn't sound like a recipe for Hunt to be -180.

Also believe Chandler is 2-0 vs Alvarez.

Just rewatched Cerrone vs miller, don't get why people think miller was winning that fight.

Cerrone looked like a killer in there, and finished him twice in the second round lol.

Also Dillishaw at -145 seems amazing to me. Gonna go big on it.

I agree that the Mousasi line is massive value I was looking to back Jacare at around -130 to -150 but going to have to take +260 on Mousasi as its a close fight. I also agree on Castillo being value at +205 he's got good momentum will be fighting in his home town and has got good power in his strikes now alongside his wrestling. He's a tough matchup for most lightweights.

Jacare last fought vs Carmont, and he lost the last round there. +250 is good value on Mousasi.

I disagree with guys saying Hunt has a slight an edge standing, but am usually wrong. What am I missing?

Nelson has a big right. Hunt is good counter fighter, has more varied strikes, has better ring craft, and better striking defense. I would say Hunt has a sizeable edge standing, but Roy's chin is pretty ridiculous. I know he got knocked out, but Hunt looked WAY better to me against dos Santos than Nelson.

Nelson has the edge on the ground, but doesn't have great takedowns. Everyone wants to take Hunt down, and he's been doing a decent job of not letting that happen.

thoughts?

I agree with hunt having a massive edge standing, however think that edge slowly deteriorates as the rounds go on.

By round 3/4 I expect it to be two exhausted guys with a lot of power and great chins throwing huge haymakers..And in the end I'm betting Roy's chin holds up.

Also If this fight ends by decision I feel it is because Nelson stole rounds on the ground, or in the clinch.

Gonna be happy to take Nelson as a dog in this one.

Roy Nelson has never really had much striking success against strikers. He did beat Kongo, but Hunt had just beat Kongo in the same amount of time.

Agreed that Hunt looked much better against Dos Santos - that was a pretty competitive fight.