I think Andy's ribs really hurt his ability to stuff any takedowns in the first fight. If you compare it to his fight with Okami where he stuffed takedowns rather easily. I know Sonnen's takedowns are much better than Okami's, but it was like you could knock Silva over with a feather against Sonnen.

I think takedowns will be much harder to come by this time. Sonnen may still get takedowns cause his wrestling is so elite, but he's going to work for them. And Silva is going to hurt him coming in.

I'm waiting to see if the line get better.

Man Forrest Griffin triangled that dude cmon.

Anderson may not be the greatest grappler around, but the guy has a pretty threatening guard. Certainly threatening enough to say Sonnen will be in danger whilst inside it.

The way Silva has looked since that fight make it pretty likely he was battling a significant injury IMO. Just use the eye test, watch the fights. Pretty clear difference.

I've been thinking, how the f is cody mckenzie facing Chad Mendes, he just fought for the title, surely he isn't that low on the ladder. I think they really just want McKenzie out of the ufc.

Either McKenzie wins and they have a ZOMG GUILLOTINE OF DEATH HE BEAT CHAD MENDES promo or Mendes gets an easy win and can fight a contender while he's 'on a 1 fight winning streak'

Fight has to be fixed. It probably has something to say at just how shallow that division is.

McKenzie is a known name from TUF, has his gimmick with 'all wins by guillotine' and is coming off a win, so I mean he's low down, but Akiyama basically lost his way to a title shot, so who knows. Sometimes they just go off who's available.

I do think FW is the weakest division though and yes i'm including BW MW and HW in that statement

Also anyone else find it weird that Pyle/Neer is on the main card over Pierce/Rocha? Guess they're both more impressive in close losses to Ellenberger/Hendricks/Koscheck than Pyle and Neer's wins over cans etc. but losses still mean something. I feel like Pierce and Rocha would wreck Pyle and Neer respectively though regardless of which matchup they had.

Anyone got any hot tips on the undercard among the lesser known fighters fighting?

Also any thoughts on what line Ebersole/Waldburger opens at? I'm betting Ebersole if he opens at the -140 or so i'd expect. As much as I love Sam Stout I don't hate a Fisher bet at the price given their history but probably won't because i'll be cheering so hard for Stout as one of my fav LWs and with Stout looking better in recent fights etc.

How good is CJ Keith? Wouldnt mind betting Ramsey if there's a decent price there, he can decision most guys imo and is probably underrated after his loss to Ferguson. Depends on the odds of course.

At the next fuel event anyone else think Cariaso is a lock over Ferguson too? He should be a ridiculous favourite there, i'll be on him at up to -300 or so and never really bet favs that big.

Also I don't hate Vaughan Lee over TJ Dillashaw if Dillashaw is as big of a fav as I expect him to be. Don't mind Munoz over Weidman as a slight dog either, I've bet against Munoz and been proven wrong before, and I think Weidman is getting overrated the same way Davis was before he faced Rashad, Munoz may just outclass him overall imo and for some reason I think Munoz matches up well there.

Big Nog should destroy Kongo too if he's only -200 or so, will be interesting to see where the line opens, but Nog's chin is good enough and Kongo is bad enough at gameplanning that Nog will either KO him standing or find a way to sub him.

Couple of the books have undercard lines out.

First line that jumps out to me is Henry Martinez vs Bernardo Magalhaes. Martinez is -155 and -180 on the 2 books and that looks like a bargain here. He had a competitive fight that some thought he won against Matt Riddle, while Magalhaes looked horrible in his UFC debut, his striking is pathetic. Meanwhile, Martinez landed liberally with his hands against Riddle. This fight shouldn't even be close.

Will probably throw Pierce in some parlays, he should box his way to a decision fairly easily.

Papazian -145 against Pague? Yes please. Once again, Pague did not even look like a UFC-caliber fighter when he got starched by Prince Albert. Papazian meanwhile, showed an excellent chin and good Muay Thai when he traded almost evenly for 3 rounds with Mike Easton. Don't know much about his ground game but he should be able to win this.

As for the main card, already have a bet on Silva and don't see Jorgenson losing to Wineland, his wrestling should be more than enough to carry him to victory. Wineland did show improved TDD in his bout with Faber though, so there is some concern.

Also happy I get to watch my all time favorite fighter, BJ Penn, embarrass himself once again in the near future. Not.

I just read the news as well, he's facing Rory, just about the worst matchup for him again. I sincerely hope BJ Penn gets in shape and demolishes Rory.

Agree on Martinez, I thought he won the fight vs Riddle, he has solid striking.

Winelands striking is solid standup guy, but whenever he faces wrestlers, he has to be prepared for the takedown attempt and that's why his standup suffers which leads to the wrestler both owning the standup and ground game. This happened both against Faber and Benavidez. And when he gets taken down, he stays down and has only a defense guard, so there's 0 of him subbing jorgensen and a very little chance of him getting back to the feet.

Is a close fight against Matt Riddle really a plus?

Martinez is -180 and Papazian -125 atm

Will have to wait and see when most of the other books release their lines

I also like Rocha at +205, I think the true line is more like -150/+150 Pierce/Rocha and will bet him if he opens above +200 on Pinn

Also how good is Matt Grice? He's +155 and his record looks bad losing to all of the UFC caliber fighters hes fought but Leonard Garcia is, well Leonard Garcia and could be on a 9 fight losing streak if judging was good

How about Seth Baczynski over Benoist? Seth Baczynski has looked good and Benoist is a relatively unknown commodity how did he look against Riddle? I didn't see the fight. and Baczynski did beat Matt Brown etc, could be value at -115

Big Nog opened -169 vs Kongo too. Kongo just threw away a fight against Mark Hunt and Nog almost beat Frank Mir. There's a big difference there in the level of competition, and with Big Nog's improved striking that he showed vs Mir and Schaub, he should be able to turn Kongo's lights out (better chin, etc.) and will have an advantage on the ground obviously

The only way he loses is if his arm isn't fully healed imo

Hope the pinnacle line comes out soon, i'll be all over Big Nog at anything under -200

Rocha has no path to victory against Pierce. His striking and his wrestling are far inferior unless he has somehow made massive gains. Pierce would have to show the lowest fight IQ ever to lose this.

Martinez was beating Matt Riddle, who is a huge WW, up. Martinez was WAY smaller in that fight, arguably won, and is now fighting at an appropriate weight class vs an inferior fighter.

Yeah I might tail Martinez will need to watch his fights first

I just remember being really impressed by Rocha's ground game against Ellenbeger, who imo has better striking and equalish wrestling to Pierce so he could win by sub. Despite his arguable win over Koscheck (which he won imo but that was Kos's worst performance in a long time) and close fight vs Hendricks (which he lost imo) Pierce sort of underwhelms me for some reason.

I agree Pierce is the favourite, the question is by how much. I guess Rocha is a very unknown entity coming in here given he's had so much time off, and we don't know what aspects of his game he's been working on.

Do you agree there's value on Big Nog over Kongo out of curiosity?

Yes Rocha has slick grappling. But how is he getting it to the floor? Pierce doesn't have the scrambling issues that Ellenberger has (that we've seen) and it's extremely unlikely he's getting any sort of takedown. Where does that leave him?

Kongo looks pretty done to me. Nog beats Mir if his fight IQ doesn't fly out the window. So yeah sure.

I like Neer, Mccall, Silva.

Does anyone think it's a tad odd that gray is 3/1 fav over guida?

I also like, franklin > silva, Werdum > Russow, Dongkim > maia, Pegado > faber, Te Huna > Vera, Henderson > edgar.

i think i also like weidman>munoz

Silva vs Sonnen 2 is stacked card, lots of interesting potential plays thurr.

I don't like Werdum at current odds even though he almost always beats Russow, he's a heavyweight and anything can happen etc.

I still need to watch McCall/Johnson 1, I missed it somehow to decide there

I don't particularly like Kim over Maia, but it's 3 rounds not 5 so he wins a decision a bunch I guess. I'll definitely take Maia if he's a decent underdog, at current line it's close.

Hope you got in early on Franklin there Pierce, he opened as a slight dog and is gonna be close to -180 by fight time imo

Same with Barao, opened at -115, will close at -170 probably. No value anymore. I may even get on Faber if he hits +200 (and Faber is one of my least fav fighters in the UFC)

I think Frankie might just beat Bendo in the rematch too especially if it goes to decision, Bendo will need to rock him hard and throw him off his gameplan in the first 2 rounds to have a chance imo. That said, I love Edgar, but I almost hope he loses so I can bet 20 units on him to beat Aldo when he comes in at +220 or whatever coming off 2 losses

Good news, Thiago Silva is out and Siyar faces Chris Clements now. Should be a easy win for Siyar.

Also, Boetsch fights against Hector lombard(who apparantly is on a 25 win streak outside UFC), might be worth looking into this guy.

We also got Shogun vs Vera, I would like Vera to win, I always liked his style and there's not many strikers better than him, or well who were better than him, don't know which shape he's in now.
His last performance looked quite decent if it wasn't for the last round where he got clipped and showed tremendous weakness against a nobody in Elliot Marshall. So idk, Shogun has a better chin but idk who has the better standup, if someone has, it's not by much probably though.

Aldo would destroy Edgar IMO. Gets hit WAY too much.

Maynard should be a -400 or worse favorite against Guida so ya it is weird lol...

Boetsch vs Lombard is interesting. Lombard is far more skilled but his cardio kinda sucks so if its goes late he might lose. He has great power tho and Boetsch is so so hittable.

Shogun vs Vera wow I have a hard time thinking of a less interesting main event in recent memory. Shogun will probably just club him at some point but who knows any more with these guys.

Must now take a moment to vent...goddamn it sucks that 5dimes and Bovada took so fkn long to open their undercard lines. Brutal. Martinez now -220 and Papazian -165 sigh. Oh well think I will still bet them but value down the drain there.

Also don't hate a bet on Grice just because Garcia is so bad. But then again judges...

Can Silva stop Brenneman from taking him down? if he can't, will he be able to get back up/submit him? He's never fought a wrestler before and Brenneman has never been submitted.

This IS the question. The problem is Silva's power plus Brennemans never finishes anyone, PLUS Brenneman has been stopped by strikes twice in the UFC already IMO. I see Silva only needing a small moment of offense to win this.

The Johnson stoppage was def premature though. I don't see how Brenneman wins that fight anyway, but that kick to the face obviously didn't KO him.

Ya I think we can say the guy has a solid chin. Glad I got on Silva when he was -155 I'll say that much.

Yeah that annoys me about Pinnacle too.

Papazian's -134 at Pinn, and i'll tail that

Just put some bets in

I have 3u on Silva (most of it at -160ish, last unit there at -175ish), 2.5u on Papazian at -134, half a unit on Rocha, McCall, a unit on Baczynski, 0.8u on Martinez and 0.8u on Grice so far

Might add more bets, might not. Wait and see I guess. Tempted to throw down a 4 fight parlay with Papazian Baczynki Silva and Martinez as well.