The Thiago fight was more idiotic bc it only remained so little of the fight and Kampmann had no answer for Thiagos standup. In this fight, it was a bit more competetive on the feet, though Ellenberger came out the clear victor in r1, just saying it was not like Kampmann was completely lost on the feet.
Idk what Ellenberger was thinking in the 2nd round tbh, I mean was he just pacing himself or was he tired or what?

And you're right about Sicilia, seeing him throw every punch trying to land the KO was rather hilarious. He's going to get picked apart but anyone decent.

Ya Alves fight was way worse because he only needed to...not get finished -_- There was at least a lot of time left in this fight where anything could happen.

Side note, I think Cofer should get a look for a UFC fight even though he lost. He was quite competitive against probably the best talent on the show, especially impressive since it was almost all standup. Certainly he seems to be a superior fighter to Sicilia.

Btw, assuming everyone has by now read reports that Mir was given a TRT TUE. The PED issue in MMA is getting downright sickening. I never thought I would lose my passion for this sport, but the prevalence/acceptance of cheating in MMA is disgusting.

Cheer up Sparky, NFL is the same way. MLB prbly still too

LOL no. Not with the league literally not caring when PED use is blatantly out in the open.

Mir's T/ratio thing was 1/1 which is what a normal man's should be

Overeem's was 16-1

there's a difference between using TRT and abusing it

i agree it prob shouldnt be allowed but still

Well, Overeem's was 16-1 long before the fight and I think it would probably have sunk to the allowed ratio close to the fight. Though Reem says he didn't know it was steoroids or smth when he get it injected for a rib injury.

But yes, I agree all these drugs are sickening, hate for it to become like for the olympics or bicycle dudes.

3 locks for ufc on fx 3 imo,

Pierce over Rocha, stylistacally bad matchup for Rocha again, facing a solid wrestler who arguably beat both Kos and Hendricks, well def Kos imo but Hendricks was a lot closer.

Jorgensen over Wineland(even though I like Wineland as a fighter more, but I think he's just going to get GnP for either unam or sub).

Silva over Brennerman. Unless Brennerman can squick out a 3 round unam dec I don't see how he wins. Silva should be strong enough/good technique wise to stop takedown attempts from Brennerman. Also Silva is an up and comer and Brennerman is probably going to just become a gatekeeper when someone needs to be tested against a wrestler. And he trains with AS fwiw.

Rocha dominated Ellenberger for a round. Depends on odds on that one and how the layoff has affected Rocha. Pierce overperformed vs Kos and arguably deserved the decision and is the definition of gatekeeper to the contenders. I'd take Pierce at evens but I may bet Rocha if he's a decent underdog.

I'll be making a huge play on Erick Silva definitely, esp if he stays around the -155 region. Haven't done it yet though.

Jorgsensen/Wineland i'm not too sure about the stylistic MU but leaning Jorgensen by decision if I had to pick

lol @ Pierce overperformed. He's probably harder to take down than Ellenberger, Rocha is gonna get beat for sure there unless Pierce shows awful fight IQ.

Jorgensen should def beat Wineland but I imagine the odds will be steep.

Already with you on Silva as well.

this thread is the bomb... im just lurking and will add some comments when i feel like there is something i have value on...

looking forward to swoop's predicitions for ufc 148

Surprisingly I don't love 148 for betting really so far - I missed the Barao opening line at -110 and now i'm actually starting to lean Faber as the line has shifted so far. I hate Faber fwiw and would have bet 10u+ on Cruz against him at the -200ish the line was at. Barao can beat him, but Faber's gone from overrated to underrated now I think. Wait and see at current line. If it gets close to evens take Barao, if it gets to +200 take Faber imo.

Silva should beat Sonnen, but wait and see where the line settles, very little value where it is right now as Sonnen does have a path to victory. See how Anderson's knee is etc. If it was 3 rounds Sonnen is way more likely to win than 5. I'd actually like to see the Silva by TKO prop vs the Silva by sub prop as one of those could offer more value than straight betting Silva. For now stay away.

Don't hate an underdog play on Tito at +270, he can win a 3 round fight enough ways against Forrest that even though he wins under half, it's like the Bader fight, very winnable for him and he'll be extremely motivated for his last fight, while Forrest i'm not so sure. If Tito gets to +300 and I think he will, it's worth a play. Tito is done as a top competitor, but is still underrated by most. He'd walk through most mid level LHWs still. I wouldn't be surprised to see Forrest lose to Tito, Bonnar beat someone, then Forrest fight Bonnar a third time, lose and retire. The way he just quit against Shogun (and would have lost to Franklin in a 5 round fight) tells me he doesn't want to be a fighter anymore. While physically he has more tools than Tito, Tito wants it a lot more. This fight is either going to be an absolutely amazing war, or terrible if one of the two doesn't show up.

Le vs Cote we'll have to see where the line opens but if Cote is a big enough dog it might be worth a play. Le's chin and cardio isn't the best, he has one round to put Cote away I think and after that I favour Cote, who I think should be a decent underdog. Not sure what happened in the Lawlor fight, but this guy is a striker who went 3 rounds with Anderson Silva and didn't look that bad until he got injured.

I kinda wouldnt be surprised if Cote opens at +250. If so, i'm snapping him up. +160 or so would be the cutoff for an early bet, I think.

I don't mind Maia as a +130 dog to Kim, while Kim wins if it goes to decision, Maia will win if there's a finish. Depends how motivated Maia is in the leadup to the fight. Wait and see I guess. It's a fight to bet after the weighins probably, depending whether Maia looks to be in shape and motivated.

Menjivar should beat Easton but prob no value and I don't know much about Easton tbh need to watch more of his fights.

Mendes will beat McKenzie by dec or TKO but if you can get +700 or something on McKenzie (and the odds may well reflect that) it could be worth a play on his guillotine. If possible to bet McKenzie by Sub and Mendes straight up with any value at all, that's a lock.

Haven't seen enough of Nurmagecyuwweiucvfeuwiewejjppfwvov and would need to watch his last few fights first but Tibau has impressed me, he's had quite a layoff since RDA fight but he impressed me in that (I had bet RDA in that fight and found it ridic that it was a SD when Tibau clearly won), would need to check out the stylistic MU and opening lines to pick.

Guillard will TKO Camoes. I hope he gets underrated after all his sub losses. If Guillard is -200 or better i'm going to go hard on him. I havent bet on or against him since I had him over Roller way back at 132.

Wouldn't be surprised if Costa puts Fukuda to sleep but wait and see on the odds there. I went from thinking Costa was awful and overrated after the Rivera fight to thinking he actually may be underrated. Would need to rewatch some Fukuda fights first.

And finally, Shane Roller probably loses and gets cut. I'll take Alessio most likely especially if he's a dog, which I think he will be. Roller is done, Guillard stole his soul at 132. Depends on odds, and will have to rewatch Alessio vs Bocek and Roller's last fight too first.

Conclusion: Underdog plays of the card are Cote (assuming he's a dog) and Tito (assuming he stays healthy and wants it badly enough). Possibly Faber if he hits +190 or so. Possibly Maia as well depending how he handles the weight cut and whether he seems motivated going in.

Honestly I would expect 2 of the 4 of those guys to win on average, with 1 being slightly more likely than 3.

For favouites (or expected favourites) i'll be taking Menjivar (if the odds are ridiculous), possibly Silva depending on how things play out, possibly Barao (if the late fanboy money comes in on Faber). I'll also definitely be on Guillard unless the odds are ridiculous.

Also a decent chance I take Tibau, Philippou and Alessio, depending on the odds. Mendes/Mckenzie I can't even begin to handicap but I could wind up taking either side of that depending on how big of a favourite Mendes is. It will probably be Mendes but only using him in parlays due to lack of value elsewhere.

Those are my early leans at current prices, or the prices I expect the fighters to open at anyway. Subject to change as prelim prices are released (sometimes my handicapping is WAY off and I end up taking the other guy because the line opened so far off what I expected it to and what i thought the true odds are)

If I had to guess right now, I think the bet of the card will end up being Cote assuming he's as much of a dog as I think he'll be, but it's hard to say without all of the lines out. Kinda think he'll do a Kampmann vs Ellenberger, and get beat down for a bit before knocking Le out in the second or third.

In the meanwhile, 147 should have some great betting opportunities with the TUF Brazil guys. Shame Werdum is an unbackable fav over Russow, I almost want to bet Russow by default as a 'competent HW +400 favourite' but it's SUCH a bad matchip for him in Werdum.

Will be interesting to see where the odds end up in Franklin/Wandy. Wandy wants it more, but Franklin is a better fighter at this stage of their careers. Should probably have got on Franklin as a dog right when it opened to arb off, but Pinnacle are always late opening their lines and I don't keep significant funds anywhere else so whatever.

lol @ Tito being motivated and "wanting" anything. That dude is straight up showing up for paychecks, same as Forrest. I'd be surprised if either of those dudes showed up at anything close to their best.

I'm also anxious to see where the Le/Cote line opens. Like you, I'm thinking there is going to be value on Cote. But there's no way this is opening at +250 lol I'm guessing the line will be close to even but I'm still going to be looking to bet it.

I kind of like Maia over Kim but it's always risky to bet a fighter making a big cut for the first time. I always considered Maia a smaller WW but the cardio issues he's shown are not going to get helped by cutting more weight. Probably with you on "wait till weigh ins" stance.

Gray Maynard down to -330, will probably be worth a bet against Guida.

Another intriguing upcoming line is Ross Pearson -215 against Cub Swanson. I've never thought much of Swanson as a fighter, tho that burned my in his last outing. Pearson's standup is very good though and from what I've seen Swanson is always willing to engage on the feet so this should be Pearson all the way.

What Mo says about Forrest/Griffin +1.

holy ****, just read "The Well: rsigley"

sort of changed my life in a strange way

that guy is such a loser but I want to be him

got inspired and spent about 10 hours today coming up with a model for trading tennis to market-make on betting exchanges and find value in derivative

unless you are putting a crapton of stock into TRT and Anderson's ribs, Anderson should not be a favorite over Chael, I can understand why the line is where it is though

lol? Sonnen's last performance wasn't exactly inspiring, he was getting outgrappled for stretches by Bisping. That's not gonna fly against the champ.

The fight is 5 rounds, that's 5 rounds that start standing against the best striker in MMA and 5 rounds that Chael who has a history of being subbed has to sit in the guard of a BJJ black belt.

There's a very good Chael is winning the fight before he's finished, but Anderson has 5 rounds to finish him. Chael has one path to victory and that's 50-45 with five flawless takedowns and topcontrol/gnp (well, he could technically win by GNP or Sub, but I doubt it in both cases with Anderson's chin and BJJ black belt)

Line is pretty fair right now but if Anderson gets down to -200 i'll be putting a bet on (and may do anyway). Remember, bad matchup aside, this is Anderson f'n Silva we're talking about here.

I would bet a very large percentage of my net worth on Silva at evens. I think the true line is around -270/+270ish.

Ya I'm thinking there's value at -250 too.

I don't think Anderson is >50% to get that sub off his back, even over 5 rounds. Most of Sonnen's sub losses have come against ground beasts, Silva being the exception (compared to Maia, Horn, etc).

This is just a tough matchup for Anderson. Chael has a rock chin. Bisping showed much better TDD than Anderson, that's why that fight was close the first 2 rounds.

Did you just say that Anderson Silva, who has submitted every fighter in the UFC he has gone to the ground with (Lutter, Sonnen, Hendo), does not have an elite ground game?

Even at say 45% for Silva if he spends the whole fight on his back, add in the 50% that he knocks Sonnen out standing and he's winning the fight about 72-73% of the time between the two which makes him about -270 or -280 or so. Pretty much how I calculated it anyway. That's not even factoring in the very slight chance that Silva can win by decision (although I agree he won't stuff Sonnen's takedowns in enough rounds to do that unless he dominates the first round or two and hurts sonnen badly)

He's not elite compared to just about every other guy who has subbed Sonnen.

And he's nowhere near 50% to knock Sonnen out, Sonnen has never been knocked out and we expect Silva to spend a large amount of time on his back.

I'm also factoring 'Anderson dominates 3 of 5 rounds standing and wins a decision' into the 'knock sonnen out' calculations which is probably 10% or so.

And I do think Anderson is 40% to knock Sonnen out at least. It's Anderson Silva.

Vitor hadn't been knocked out since UFC 15 until Silva
Leben is known for having an iron chin and he didn't last a round
Forrest granted doesn't have the best chin but we saw that
Okami only had 1 TKO loss before Silva
Franklin's only been TKO'd by Belfort and Machida other than Silva twice

If Silva can stuff takedowns for one full round, Sonnen is going to be knocked out (granted i'm not sure that Silva can do that) but in addition to Silva having a legit ground game, he's definitely the favourite. The actual % is he is to win comes down to your views on the rib injury, TRT, and what adjustments both fighters will have made since last time

I guess we will see in round 1 what kind of fight it will be. It's a little different fight than the others he fought since most of them didn't pose a ground threat or even tried to go there. All I know is Sonnen is probably the best offensive wrestler in the whole UFC, how he forces those takedowns and that Bispings takedown defense is even or better than AS takedown defense.