MMA Thread - Page 916 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

I should bet most of my money on Moraga. Then Khabilov. Then High. Then Sanchez. And least on Edwards.

Differences in my odds versus Betfair odds :

MORAGA 400-186 = 214
KHABILOV 200-100 = 100
HIGH 250-170 = 80
SANCHEZ 160-104= 56
EDWARDS 156-127 = 29

go bigger by %, not by the number.

An example would be capping a fight at -1000 (91%) and it opens at -900 (90%)
then you cap a different fight at -150 (60%) and it opens +100 (50%)

By your logic fight A is a 100 difference, vs fight B that is only 50, so Fight A should be twice as big of a bet. However fight B has a 10% edge, where fight A only has a 1% edge (which isn't even worth a bet in my opinion)

According to the way you caped the fight, you should be huge on Rustam, and pretty big on Moraga/Sanchez.

Quote

06-06-2014 , 03:33 PM

#22877

elliot10181

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Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by phenomenal

Independently verified them by thinking of them.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...umbers-updated

This article said that in 546 fights there were three DQs, three draws and 2 NCs. 8/546 = 0,015 = 1,5%

Ah I wondered if you were using a stat based program.

The DQ is a loss rather than a draw (Jones Hamil) and I'm pretty sure a NC is a push (although happy to be corrected here)

So either 5/546 or 3/546 so 1% or roughly .6%

Quote

06-06-2014 , 03:43 PM

#22878

elliot10181

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Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Vitors test level came back at 1400 in feb, to put it in perspective 400-800 is the normal range. Not sure NV will be that happy to license him for this fight.

Quote

06-06-2014 , 06:34 PM

#22879

elliot10181

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Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

No real shocks at the weighins

Only thing on note is that high looked like he made weight pretty easily and will be interesting to see how he performs now he has dropped a division.

Quote

06-06-2014 , 06:44 PM

#22880

yoyobo

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Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

only bets for Bellator is Prindle. Ended up putting another 2units on it for 4u at +200.

Feel i should have put more on it, especially since it is +130 now, but wasn't that confident in my read.

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06-06-2014 , 06:59 PM

#22881

SwoopAE

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Reminder to self to place sects bets later

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06-06-2014 , 07:12 PM

#22882

Chris M

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 580

Quote:

Originally Posted by phenomenal

Quote:

Originally Posted by elliot10181

That Bleacher Report article is looking at data from 2001-2009, and also left out all the Fight Night and TUF Finale events over that time frame for some reason.

And Elliot is correct, DQ and NC don't count as draws.

Since the beginning of 2013, I believe there have been two draws out of 566 total fights, which is a rate of only 0.35%.

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06-06-2014 , 08:39 PM

#22883

just_mo

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Just looked at lines. Like Pearson -160 and Khabilov +220 or whatever. But Henderson ****s me every time.

Quote

06-06-2014 , 09:36 PM

#22884

yoyobo

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Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Sokoudjou about to fight on bellator.

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06-06-2014 , 10:07 PM

#22885

yoyobo

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Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Well there goes 4u...

That was embarrassing.

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06-06-2014 , 10:24 PM

#22886

Aquasces

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 106

I like Jake Lindsey over John Tuck at +143, Perez over Caraway at -105, and Lance Benoist over Voelker at +106. I broke down the reasons on my blog (link removed) What do you guys think?

Also Pearson odd is starting to look attractive at -161, if it goes lower, definitely value in dropping some units on Pearson.

Aquasces1

Last edited by PropPlayer; 06-06-2014 at 11:12 PM.

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06-06-2014 , 10:45 PM

#22887

elliot10181

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Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Nice blog, I'll enjoy following it!

Quote

06-06-2014 , 10:51 PM

#22888

Aquasces

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 106

Thanks Elliot!!!

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06-07-2014 , 03:15 AM

#22889

SwoopAE

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Heard a lot of good things about Lindsey everyone seems to like him as a dog so I might fire some there

Quote

06-07-2014 , 03:32 AM

#22890

SwoopAE

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Ok I have at base units

0.5u Pearson -145
2.5u RDA -257 average
1.5u Caraway +101 average
0.5u Meza +450
0.5u Lindsey +144
0.5u Benoist +107
0.5u Hallmann -166
0.5u Jorgensen -213
1u Dodson/Bendo/RDA parlay +132
0.1u all of my picks except Meza parlay +7753

Last edited by SwoopAE; 06-07-2014 at 03:54 AM.

Quote

06-07-2014 , 03:57 AM

#22891

Aquasces

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 106

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Ok I have at base units

0.5u Pearson -145
2.5u RDA +257 average
1.5u Caraway +101 average
0.5u Meza +450
0.5u Lindsey +144
0.5u Benoist +107
0.5u Hallmann -166
0.5u Jorgensen -213
1u Dodson/Bendo/RDA parlay +132
0.1u all of my picks except Meza parlay +7753

I like all your picks except for Caraway. You should rethink that one over

Quote

06-07-2014 , 04:16 AM

#22892

SwoopAE

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I suppose i've been underwhelmed by Perez and I think Caraway would have won the Mizugaki fight (their only mutual opponent) if not for bad corner advice that he was up two rounds when he wasn't. It's going to come down to whether Caraway can get a takedown probably.

Quote

06-07-2014 , 04:47 AM

#22893

phenomenal

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,524

Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

EDGES

Khabilov 50%-33%=17%
Moraga 35%-20%=15%
Sanchez 49%- 38,5= 10,5%
High 37%-29% = 8%
Edwards 44%- 39% = 5%

There must be some formula that says how I should spend my 50 euros with these edges. Feel formulas says :

15 on Khabilov
12,5 on Moraga
10 on Sanchez
7,5 on High
5 on Edwards

Quote

06-07-2014 , 07:40 AM

#22894

just_mo

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Fired some degen bets...

RDA KO +335 0.5u
Pearson decision +110
Pearson -163
Pettis KO +180
Jorgenson -225

Quote

06-07-2014 , 09:55 AM

#22895

SwoopAE

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I think I like all of those, Pettis KO is a bit iffy but probably okay like the rest

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06-07-2014 , 12:06 PM

#22896

elliot10181

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.6U Khabilov +205
.5U Meza +450

Quote

06-07-2014 , 12:43 PM

#22897

yoyobo

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Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Only one bet tonight. Khabilov +210 (5u)

9/9 on calling Bendo fights so far (Although 3 suckouts) and made some pretty good money on him vs Thompson, Edgar, Pettis, and Diaz. Feel Pretty good about this one making it 10/10.

Khabilov should be able to keep rounds close, and Steal them with TDs, and a flashy kick or two. He might fade late, but i think he easily wins 2 of the first 3, then it's all about his Cardio, and with Him being used to the High Altitude, He should be okay.