5dimes.

JDS should win in round one, but the price on round 2 was good and there's a decent chance they will feel each other out for a bit or maybe Mir will somehow survive a round, I mean he DID eat some vicious bombs from Lesnar and see a bell.

I'm trying to understand why Hardy would be favored to KO Ludwig. I don't see it at all...

I do see him winning a decision though

If I had to pick an exact result it's Hardy 29-28

It's worth noting that Ludwig's a big step down in competition from the four guys Hardy lost to (GSP Lytle AJ and Condit) and before that he was on a winning streak. Ludwig's 8-8 in his last 16 with his best win being either Yves Edwards or Amir Sadollah. Hardy's best win is probably Swick

I'm kinda talking myself into this being a flip now but for some reason I just think Hardy's going to win and it's a good stylistic matchup for him and I feel he's going to want it more

Ludwig is the better striker. I think Hardy's got a better chance if he goes for takedowns. He's got the edge in BJJ.

I usually like guys taking a step down in competition too, but Hardy wasn't competitive vs GSP, AJ, Condit.

Hardy probably has edges in size/strength/chin though. Kinda feel Ludwig looked good against a fighter in Sadollah who is really just drifting right now. Don't feel strongly enough to bet it though.

Like Machinehead said, it's not like Hardy had competetive fights w those guys. Also his winning strike consisteds of 2 split decisions over 2 low level fighters, 1 KO and 1 decent win over Swick. That's it. The only reason he got the title shot is because the division was weak, and then when he took a step up in competition he clearly showed he doesn't belong there.
But who knows, maybe he has revamped all of his training and is suddenly this new fighter, it remains to be seen. But I think picking whoever is the biggest underdog here is the best. Should be close to a flip.

man, I was dying to get this money on and hit these props before they got worse, but in the last couple days they have gotten better!!!! I dunno if I wanna push my luck or just get it in right now but damn these are good.

Hedge: Frank Mir inside distance +450

alright did some stuff for this card that I normally dont do. Swoop got me on some parlay ****

Risk Win Action
$60.53 $66.58 Dos Santos wins in round 1 +110* vs Any other result
$199.93 $74.60 Dos Santos wins inside distance -268* vs Not Dos Santos inside distance
$120.00 $100.00 Fight won't start round 2 -120* vs Mir/Dos Santos starts round 2

$50.00 $37.93 Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 5/26/12 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Junior Dos Santos -525* vs Frank Mir
Pending 5/26/12 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Cain Velasquez -400* vs Antonio Silva
Pending 5/26/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Edson Barboza -550* vs Jamie Varner

I really like ^ this parlay and wish I had put more on it. I have all the guys in front in both parlays.

$20.54 $300.03 Pending 7 Team Parlay
Pending 5/26/12 11:59pm UFC Fighting 1002 Junior Dos Santos -525* vs Frank Mir
Pending 5/26/12 11:30pm UFC Fighting 1102 Cain Velasquez -400* vs Antonio Silva
Pending 5/26/12 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1401 Lavar Johnson +115* vs Stefan Struve
Pending 5/26/12 9:30pm UFC Fighting 1502 Diego Brandao -280* vs Darren Elkins
Pending 5/26/12 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1602 Edson Barboza -550* vs Jamie Varner
Pending 5/26/12 8:30pm UFC Fighting 1702 Jason Miller -145* vs C.B. Dollaway
Pending 5/26/12 7:30pm UFC Fighting 1852 Dan Hardy -125* vs Duane Ludwig

$100.00 $100.00 Fight won't start round 2 +100* vs Mir/Dos Santos starts round 2

Totals: $551.00 to win $679.14

Dos Santos better come out and fkn kill him or im not gonna be a happy camper

I expect this to be over within a minute though.

With this lol...I will really be hurting if JDS doesn't com through here. But every thinking, rational bone in my body says h will.

I don't think it will be 1st round though, Mir is going to play it cautious and JDS is gona feel him out I think. Late 2nd/early 3rd probably, unless JDS decides to **** him up in r1 and juust rush him.
And ldo if Mir decides to starts playing the standup game in round 1.

who cares if mir plays it cautious, thats all the better for us. If he rushes JDS he might actually get him down or something, if he just hangs out JDS can chuck boulders at his ass from range and he wont last long.

Honestly think Frank has like 10% to win this fight max and maybe 30% to get out of R1

"If Mir decides to start playing the standup game"?

What choice is he gonna have? The only way I see him dictating position at all would be if he could clinch up with JDS and possibly do some fencewrestling.

that's what I mean, if he purely decides to do defensive standup which would include clinching up and wasting time, just not engaging in any sort of standup exchanges.

Had a drink with Hardy's manager yesterday (know him from back in the UK) Hardy's in shape of his career and very motivated. He also said Mir's looking great in the gym (obviously Santos still massive favourite) but should be a better version of Mir than we are used to.

Obviously biased but thought I'd let you guys know.

Cheers Elliot

That's very interesting, Hardy did look pumped and in good shape on the weighins, but he's always looked pretty good athletic wise and "fighting attitude". Don't think the stamina is going to be the issue in Hardy fight. But I'm very interested to see this new 2.0 Hardy.

I just see Hardy as the sturdier fighter here...more power, better chin. Think he'll get landed on a good amount but as long as he trades fairly evenly he will be dishing out the more damaging strikes.

Weigh in wise, the most concerning thing to me was how good of shape Mayhem looked in. Still hoping Dollaway's wrestling and punching can carry the day though. Kingsbury looked less musclebound to me, which should bode well for his cardio.

Though if u compare Dollaway's physique to Miller, Dollaway looked way more ripped. Though that doesn't mean better cardio, Miller looked leaner and I hope is going to have the cardio advantage.

Put a half unit parlay on Miller+Hardy+Struve

I really like my Miller bet, line moved in my favour since I got it in on Miller and Struve and Brandao, against on Del Rosario and stayed about the same on Hardy

So in addition to those I added a partial unit on Nelson, a partial on Nelson+Velasquez, partial on Brown and a few parlays for $1-10 including combinations of all the above

I have a large bet on JDS for knock out of the night! and various parlays involving big country jds miller cain struve ect

Like all of those, except i'd be worried about Cain knocking out Bigfoot more impressively than JDS knocks out Mir, or potentially a Barboza wheel kick or something or maybe even if Lavar gets the slight upset on Struve

What price are you getting on it? I'd mostly be concerened that there should be min 3 KOs tonight although the main does have an above average chance of the award I guess

Also I never got to get on Cain by TKO since I ended up doing all of my bets on Pinn, but I still like it.

got jds for knockout of night at 5/2 and a little bet on cain because i was thinking the same thing @ a nice 17/2 price.

Believe I saw this at 3:1

how is the under 1.5 on miocic/del rosario +130 right now (pinnacle)? How does that make sense?

del rosario has never been over 1.5 in his entire career. Miocic has been under 1.5 6 of 8 fights (and one of those overs was joey beltran, who is nearly impossible to finish). Both are hard hitting HWs with big KO/TKO power. Really, it's an underdog to finish early?

Hitting that while I can.