I really find the Anik and Florian combo terrible. It was like they were commentating WWE - completely over-exaggerating every hit, inventing drama that just wasn't there.
Really irritating.
Also, McMann will beat Rousey and Rousey will win the rematch after some soul-searching journey about how she lost her way in the bright lights of the movies etc. The UFC is then going to get a lot of heat about the turnaround time between UFC 168 and UFC 170. Dana will get mad at Ariel about this in the post-fight press conference, notwithstanding that it's true.
Really glad that Cormier is fighting Cummins now so it has some heat about it. Cormier v Rashad would have surely sent me to sleep and I would've missed the main event; it was destined to be a war of attrition.
McMann took quite a bit of damage when she faced Gaff.
Another aspect of Rousey's game I like is that when she controlls you against the cage or on the ground, she remains active with punches and knee's. If she doesn't have any opportunity to go for submissions, she goes for punches. It's a big difference when you compare it to other top heavy ground/wrestling guys who don't really do much damage from the top, but just focus on maintaining control.
I think McMann is going to nullify her for a lot of rounds and either grind out the decision or get some kind of crucifix-type TKO stoppage. (Which btw I think are bull**** stoppages but that's for another day)
Rousey is still a big favourite in a normal fight, but I just think she's liable to break under the circumstances of an insane year and McMann is the exact type to be able to do it.
I can't see Rousey getting broken mentally, hard to imagine her style being nullified too. She seems like the type you need to finish to beat, its hard enough just to survive in there with her let alone be offensive and win rounds. But I don't really know much about McMann except that she has huge arms.
Rousey should take this pretty easily, her judo means she'll have top position at some point and that will likely lead to the sub. Even if McMann takes top position dodging rouseys guard will be a nightmare.
However I think cyborg vs rousey will happen by the end of the year and that cyborg will crush Rousey. Fingers crossed she'll be +money when it happens
McMann took quite a bit of damage when she faced Gaff.
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Just went back and re watched the fight, still not sure what you are talking about. Gaff landed a couple of knees to the body directly after the standup. However none of them really did anything. That was the only offence she landed all fight...
Just went back and re watched the fight, still not sure what you are talking about. Gaff landed a couple of knees to the body directly after the standup. However none of them really did anything. That was the only offence she landed all fight...
Yeah, it was only some knees she ate to the body. Forgot a bit about it.
On another note, say Lawler somehow wins against Hendricks and gets the belt, this could be Nick Diaz's shot to get a miracle title shot against Lawler on the account he KO'd him once before, and I think Lawler would welcome that fight with open hands considering he wants a payback. He'd probably have to get a good matchup first though but you never know though, the way he got his GSP shot, maybe he could get it again.
Well, he's 1 win from being the WW champion of the UFC. He has one of the best WW punchers chance. Do we think he's a favorite to beat Hendricks? No, I at least don't think so.
10.4u on Rousey -376 (don't see her ever losing really unless McMann is way better than I think)
3.68u on Koch -368 (don't see him ever losing bar random punchers chance)
1u on Maia +240 (steam seems to have shifted to Maia and since I cap it around +200 figured i'd lock it in now)
3.66u on Assuncao -183 (and here I was thinking Munhoz might be opening at +500 and worth a play, line was so far off what I expected I switched sides)
4.28u on Makovsky -155 (think he's more like a -200 fav)
Way more excited about these bets than any of the last few cards, I expect to go at least 4/5 here and think I go 5/5 quite often. Granted four of the five are favourites, but I really like the Makovsky and Assuncao lines (I think Assuncao is more like -230 but I expected him to open at -400 or -600 or something)
I quite like the Thomson line but i'm a huge fan of both fighters which may be clouding my judgement so i'm staying away there. I'd take Pyle too but too many questions about his chin and age.
If Cummins gets to +1000 I might give it a shot just because of punchers chance, Cormier's first fight at LHW etc
Thompson/Pyle seem good. Sterling May still be good at -240.
Only bet I really like this card though, is Davis at -150. She should be a much bigger favorite. She may not have the speed of Eye, but she should easily outstrike her. Then when this thing hits the matDavis easily wins.
Rory by decision +140 (5d) - 1u to win 1.4u
Koch itd +120 (5d) - 1u to win 1.2u
Sterling -225 (******) - 2.25u to win 1u
Davis -150 (5d) - 3u to win 2u
Wonderboy -135 (5d) - 5.4u to win 4u
Staying away from main and co-main because it just doesn't' feel right. If Rousey loses it's gonna be to someone like this wrestler and she is still so green and the distractions, Cormier's cut wasn't easy.
Also 0.3u on Cummings at +926 because I placed Elliot's bet for him and figured why not tail, also I dislike Cormier and want to cheer against him so why not at +926, they're big guys, anything can happen even though Cormier likely wins quickly it's a nice sweat if the fight is competitive
So many question marks though, Pyle's chin is bad, Waldburger's chin is even worse, Pyle is old, Waldburger sucks if he can't get it to the ground, etc.
Adding 1.25u to win 1.11u on Koch/Oliveira u2.5 rounds
Oliveira has been finished in his last 3 losses, Koch in his last two granted by better fighters and Koch (the likely winner) has finished three of his last four wins, with three guys (Assuncao, Rivera and Brookins) being fighters who I would favour over Oliveira.
Feels like this fight is more like 35%/30%/35% or something for decision/sub/tko and we need way less than 65% for -113 to be profitable here on getting the finish
Outside of the main event, this is up there with the Pyle and Cormier fights for 'fight most likely to end in a finish' on this card.
