Mauy-Thai beats Karate. It's not as simple as that, but it is generally the way it works. Shogun proved that Machida is no exception.

Not to mention that Mousasi's striking is much better than Shoguns. Also Mousasi's cardio shouldn't be an issue, as there won't be to many grappling exchanges here.

I got the real line as Mousasi -180.

what's the last fast pace machida fight you've seen?

Also i highly doubt that Machida will be shooting double leg takedowns. His trips are also pretty overrated. He has landed 2/5 TD attempts in his last 7 fights.

I like the Mousasi line and think if the fights stays standing then he has a great chance of winning. The big threat to him is getting outgrappled as even the the "dean of mean" had decent success there and Machida has great takedown's and a good ground game. I think this fight really depends on Machida's gameplan and whether he mixes things up.

Lombard and sokodjou were both high level Judokas (Lombard olympic level and Sokodjou US champion) so not sure that means he was particularly susceptible rather than that was their main strength. Gono was 2006 so a little too far back to have much relevance (just 3 years into Gregards 11year career).

I do agree though Machida has a better shot if he just tries to grapple but I don't see it happening. I can't see any reason other than an uneducated fan base for him to be a -250 favourite.

My biggest concern regarding Gregard is he is too tough for his own good and will happily turn up and fight injured which with his previous knee history isn't ideal.

Phil Davis vs Rumble Johnson set for UFC 172

http://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-17...Teixeira-34401

sigh, the laziest possible analysis.

Luke Rockhold vs. Tim Boetsch set for UFC 172

Breakdown of why Machida's good at -250 owed by Just-mo

do you think mousasi's competition in his last 7 fights is even remotely comparable to machida's? and my point was not that machida wears guys out like cain velasquez, just that i'm not sure mousasi has demonstrated an ability to go 5 rounds at any pace more frenetic than lying on his back.

Davis should decision Rumble easily.

Going over Mousasi's record I feel like Machida would be 39-0-0 if he had fought the same guys, I guess Hunt would have had a punchers chance against him and that's about it, Jacare would have a small chance too I guess.

I'm just not that concerned for Machida regardless of stylistic matchup when his opponent recently fought Keith Jardine to a draw and lost to King Mo while Machida's clear legit losses were to the p4p #1 in Jones and the best Shogun we have ever seen (I had him winning the Davis and Rampage fights easily) - fighting Rampage/Rashad/Shogun/Jones/Davis etc is just a level above anyone Mousasi's ever fought.

Did you see the Jardine fight? It was considered one of the biggest robberies of that year and Gregard also had a point deducted for an upkick.

King mo fight he legit lost (although with another point deduction) but I feel Machida has nothing like the skill set that caused Gregard issues in that fight.

I'm not trying to talk you out of our bet though

Shaun Al-Shatti ‏@shaunalshatti 9m
"@MMAFighting: Rafael dos Anjos faces Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC on FOX 11 http://sbn.to/1lzEMpP "

April 19 in Orlando, Florida USA

That's the Werdum/Browne and Cerrone/Barboza card.

http://www.sherdog.com/events/UFC-on...s-Browne-35107

Nice, they're setting Khabib up for a title shot, making sure he gets a very winnable fight even if they have to wait.

Hope Khabib opens at close to evens with all the RDA hype lately.

khabib has made me a fair amount of money as of late. Think I'm going to hit RDA at +140 or better though. Kahbib's stand up is still quite a bit off of the average top 10 fighter.. and RDA showed some pretty great TDD against Bocek.

mousasi overated for some reason machida is the master hit n runner

Go watch Machida/Shogun 1 again. Machida had absolutely no answer for the kicks of shogun. Mousasi is also a better striker than shogun is.

Machida's hit n run game plan only works vs decent level strikers, that generally just get upset and start leaping in and rushing things. He even had a problem with Dan Henderson due to him not rushing in, or trying to close the distance improperly to hit a take down.

Mousasi is hands down the best striker he has faced, and is going to have a very hard time dealing with the kicks and jab of mousasi. Also Mousasi is the first fighter since Shogun that has the ability to effectively counter Machida, which gave him all sorts of problems in his fights with Shogun.

Edit: although to Machida's credit, he did check quite a few kicks in his 2nd fight with shogun, before being KO'd.

older analysis, but might fit to some extent:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...world-champion

1u Sousa by Sub +165

For me this fight is a total no bet. Machida is the better fighter physically and skillwise, but judges can see even less straight when it comes to this guy than your average fighter, so I'm certainly done laying any kind of juice on him.

On the other hand though, how can you ever trust Mousasi to take a 5 round decision from somebody? You can't, not if you're sane, so I do understand a small bet on ITD but I wouldn't be bothered to bet anything else. Then again, this is a guy who couldn't finish Lofa Tatupu or whatever the guy's name was. Faded badly against Jardine/OSP.

Mousasi backers, ask yourselves this...when was the last time he looked impressive against a quality fighter? I don't know what my answer would be, but I'm pretty sure Mike Kyle doesn't count. 29-28 against a wet behind the ears OSP certainly doesn't count. Jardine? Yes that fight was a whitewash but 2 wins in his last 10. If we're being honest, your answer would probably have to be Sokoudjou or Babalu, as they were still considered competitive fighters when Mousasi blew them out (Babalu won his next against Lawler). That was in 2009, folks.

Could the striking be close? Absolutely, but only for a couple of rounds. We all know what's gonna happen to Mousasi after 10 minutes. Maybe that will be enough to win a decision, I mean Phil Davis won like 60s of the fight against Machida and they shipped him the win so 10 minutes should be more than enough.

Honestly, I love watching the guy fight because he has a tantalizing skillset, but Mousasi is a fighter who just doesn't seem to take his career that seriously, which is incredibly disappointing. But 40 fights into his career and he still hasn't proven he can look good past 10 minutes? That's a little bit embarrassing, and the only reasonable explanation is that he doesn't take his training seriously.

In conclusion, -250 seems like a pretty fair line.

Hey,

Thanks for the response always useful to here an educated contrary opinion. I don't think cardio will be as much of a factor in this fight as it has been in others as machida won't push the pace in the way wrestlers do. Machidas hit and run is perfect for Gregard and shouldn't tire him.

I disagree that he faded vs Jardine here's end of second and the third round. He pretty much stalked and battered Jardine until the bell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kp0gm7cmkA

Gregard hasn't faced as many top fighters recently but he has also not been losing. His loss against Mo was via lay and prey something machida won't be doing. I do agree though that we don't have a great idea of where he stands as we just haven't seen him fight enough good guys in the last 3 years.

Hopefully it helps Gregard that the fights at 185 as it should mean he's increased his cardio to drop the weight. Obviously worst case is that he hasn't trained hard and has a crazy cut fight week.

I still feel it should be close to evens due to styles so will be interesting to see how it pans out. I currently have 3U on Gregard and will also look at ITD props closer to the fight.

GL with your bets.

He hasn't been losing but he hasn't LOOKED GOOD winning, that's the key. You can impress without facing top guys. Mousasi hasn't done it. Perhaps the step up in competition will have him take it more seriously, we'll see.

That's what I keep thinking. When you're 34-3-2 against a bunch of mostly weak competition, it's probably hard to push yourself to constantly improve.

It will be interesting to see how he responds over the next few years.

He's still only 28 years old. But I think he needs to get with a good camp. The Red Devil Sport Club or whatever probably isn't going to bring out the best in him.

He's done as well as can really be expected since Mo

4 first round finishes, completely dominated Jardine and Latifi (with torn knee), only questionable fight was OSP which no one really disputes he won, he went too hard in the first and was gassing by third.

He just landed a bunch of leg kicks on Latifi, I mean dominated sure in that he never got hit but hardly impressive. 29-28ing OSP is not as well as can be expected, nor is not finishing Jardine, one of the chinniest fighters in recent memory.