If the line is -220/+190 or whatever i'm going to be pretty heavy on Gastelum

I expect more like Story -130 Gastelum +110 and i'll be taking Gastelum as long as he's at better than evens.

Time for me to try and handicap the next card

Rockhold -220 Philippou +200
Larkin -150 Tavares +130
Dillashaw -140 Easton +120
Romero -380 Brunson +340
Moraga -175 Ortiz +155
Miller -185 Sicilia +165
Nijem -140 Edwards +120

The rest of the fights are hard since I haven't seen one of the two guys fight

Alves can't wrestle? His wrestling is actually pretty solid, not sure where you would get that idea.

Dillashaw is going to be like -250 against Easton.

Alves can't grapple, he has good TDD though.

Yeah Swoop, is that post meant to be your personal assessment of where the lines should be, or is that your guess of where the lines will open? I agree with Mo on Dillashaw v Easton, I think Dillashaw wins at least 70% of the time, and I think the opening line will reflect that (-200 or worse).

Yeah I think he should be a pretty righteous favorite here. Other lines look at least ballpark, though I think Miller and Moraga would be overpriced, and Nijem underpriced. Probably most interested/curious in where ME and Brunson/Romero open.

in

Where I think they open but none seem hugely off to me. At those prices I like Rockhold and Dillashaw though. I'm also a huge Nijem fan but his chin is just so bad. I think I might take Larkin at that price too.

Will be interesting to see which fights are spot on and which fights i'm way off on.

While we're guessing opening lines that aren't out might as well do some more

Bendo -240 Thomson +210
Miocic -145 Gonzaga +125
Cerrone -360 Martins +320
Elkins -120 Stephens +100
Caceres -110 S. Pettis -110

Hopefully we get some actual lines for the Rockhold vs Philippou card soon. I'm hoping to get Rockhold, Larkin and Dillashaw at decent prices

Also if Smolka is +300 or better i'm very not sold on Alp Ozkilic still and he seems to have a lot of hype and I would assume if Brenneman is -300 or better it's a play since his opponent has never fought anyone good

Wagering 0.5u on Rousey/McMann under 1.5r +165.

I think I like that, I doubt McMann has Tate's level of BJJ and I doubt she rides out the whole first and second round on top and as soon as Rousey lands a judo trip i'm expecting the armbar.

I actually can't wait to see both Rousey and Tate fight again, i'm hoping Tate can rebound from a questionable loss then losing the biggest fight of her career against her most hated rival... it would be interesting to put her in against one of the Team Rousey girls (Shayna Baszler or Jessamyn Duke) because of the backstory, although i'm thinking they want to build Duke up slowly as she seems pretty marketable and the built in backstory/trash talk with Baszler would be a bunch of fun although i'm not sure whether she's signed by the UFC currently.

according to some twitter news (tito offering/asking and tate accepting) tate might go train with cyborg... could open up some stuff haha

Not sure if serious, since leaving the UFC tito is busy destroying both his own career and legacy and cris cyborgs

Also he just got arrested today for a suspected DUI

I'm a big Tito fan but he needs to get his **** together

In order to stay relevant Tate should be a) trying to train with Rousey's next opponent and b) trying to beat one of her TUF team or c) get booked into a fight against a name opponent she can beat. She's already beaten Kaufman who is high risk so i'd recomment going for a fight with Carmouche, Baszler, Duke, de Randamie or Rackozy, they're all winnable fights and they're all recognisable named either through having fought in the UFC already or from being on Rousey's TUF team. I think i'd take Tate to beat all five of them at evens although they're all competitive fights imo (except I think Rackozy is terrible and have no idea how she made the TUF finale) and she might be a dog to Carmouche, and idk about Baszler

lol if true... that's really a new low point of titos career... that he even wanted to have the fight with rampage (another sad story)...

Dominick Cruz injured (groin tear), vacates title; Urijah Faber in against Renan Barao at UFC 169

http://www.mmafighting.com/2014/1/6/...-against-renan

26 days notice for Faber.

Not sure Rousey hits herjudo throws at will vs Mcmann. She has much better TDs than Tate did, and it will be a lot harder to reverse them. As well as Mcmann should be much stronger in the clinch.

Also Ronda's open passing allowed Tate to stand back up on more than one occasion (also led to a Tate takedown in r1 or 2) . that is going to be a serious problem vs someone who will be much more explosive in getting back to their feet.. Especially if I'm right about it being much harder for Ronda to take her down. As that will just cost her precious moments of top control.

Still upset I completely missed the opening lines.. But I think +150ish is the proper line for Mcmann here.

.....

That tilts me to no end. Really love watching Cruz fight. Go Faber!

Barao beats Faber again. Even if Faber had the standard amount of time, I`d still bet on Barao.

Cruz has no business fighting anymore. Retire and be done with it.

Really?

Yes.

He can`t stay healthy. There`s a point when you have to ask yourself whether or not your body can still take the punishment needed to be a successful fighter. Clearly this isn`t the case with Cruz.

I`m guessing you feel he should still be the champ and just have an interim belt float around the UFC bantamweight division too?

At this point, he's probably better off vacating. If he comes back, he'll get a winnable fight or two instead of coming right back with ring rust to face a beast. Hope he makes it back, but at this point, who knows. If he does come back and isn't awful, it's not like he's going to have a long path to a title shot.

I think if Faber's +300 or better I might play him, otherwise Barao prob just wins again

So tilting as a massive Cruz fan, good chance we never see Cruz/Barao now

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ua3yyQr-2ys

McMann's fight with Shayna, I think it says a lot.....McMann looked pretty uncomfortable when Shayna was threatening submissions from both the bottom and the top. Despite looking good holding Shayna against the cage Randy Couture style, McMann does NOT want to be there for extended periods against Ronda. She didn't seem to do well in the grappling scrambles, surprising since she's probably physically stronger and has such good wrestling. That last point is huge, Shayna has a good submission game, but she's doesn't have the killer instinct on the ground that Ronda possess, Ronda thrives on those types of scrambles. McMann's best hope is to secure take downs and maintain top control, but as we saw in Rousey's last fight, she's ridiculously active off her back, threatening subs constantly, I think McMann would handle that type of constant pressure well. Think a fair line is Ronda -567.

Oh and there's this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nASGLbaZJ3Q
It's from a few years ago, so it might be whatev at this point, but still interesting.

Sigh, the last part of that paragraph should read "...active off her back, threatening subs constantly, I think McMann won't handle that type of constant pressure well."

Think Faber is a pretty good bet here above +250

He's improved a lot since the first fight and has been more active than barao since. Camp length won't be a huge issue as those guys train all year so doesn't come into play in the same way as with other fighters.

Wont go huge but at least 1U around that price

Faber is great fighter but I mean stylistically...he had nothing for Barao last time. Was never even in the fight.