Think overeem at -450 is a bet. And I except to get better.

Mirs weakness is against the cage, and it just happens that this is where overeem shines. His cardio and chin may suck, but don't see Mir lasting long enough to test the cardio, nor does he land a shot worth mentioning in first 2 minutes.

Overeem is going to throw him against the fence, and knee him into a brutal victory. Don't see many other outcomes

I agree. If this has any decent price this is a lock.

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That's the most likely outcome but if Mir +400 is available you better believe i'll be on Mir for multiple units, Bigfoot and Browne showed that Overeem turtles as soon as he's in trouble and Mir is a finisher

Overeem's been knocked out 12 times remember and he's been submitted. He's very finishable.

Overeem. Lock. I was on him against Browne and Bigfoot too and those were 'locks' as well at the time. Never underestimate Overeem's ability to let you down (or Mir's for that matter)

I'd cap it at Overeem -200 just because it's likely he lands an initial onslaught and Mir never gets anything going, but -450 is ridiculous if Mir lands anything standing or manages to get it to the ground even if he's on the bottom Overeem is very finishable.

I feel like betting on this fight to not go the distance is a much bigger lock than Overeem since if he doesn't finish Mir in r1 (which granted is likely), he will gas or take damage and Mir will finish him

I was in Reem in his last two fights, but in both if those there were clear paths to victory for the other fighters.

This one is Reems greatest strength vs Mirs biggest weakness. And we are yet to see Mir being able to avoid the fight going to the cage.

Edit: yeah not going the distance is definitely a line to look out for.

There's not a clear path to victory for Mir? Punch Overeem in the face and/or grab a limb and sub him? The guy gets finished every time he loses lol, this is whoever lands the first big flurry. Most likely Overeem but this is far from a lock.

Bagautinov will be favored over Lineker.

I wouldn't lay anything on Reem at -450 against any top 10 fighter in the UFC. This is due to Reems lackluster ability to recover, proneness to turtle up when in danger, glass chin and his cardio. My opinion is that he should hover somewhere around -200-250. While the striking credentials go to Reem, Mir has demonstrated a solid striking game himself, rocking Kongo before submitting him and KO'ing Noguiera.

With that said, what is the most likely outcome? Reem muscles Mir against the cage and then proceeds to land knee's and punches to which Mir's responsds by freezing, like he did in the Carwin fight, and go down.

at this stage of his career frank mir is nowhere near the fighter that bigfoot or brown is.

It's true that Mir didn't look as good as those two have recently but it's the principle of the fact that the second Overeem is in trouble he calls it a night. It's the way he's always been throughout his whole career.

IMO, nothing Wiedman had displayed in either fights suggests he's a better fighter.

I beg to differ. He displayed solid standup defense as Silva wasn't able to land anything significant in the standup. Weidman also rocked AS in the first round the second time around (I'm not counting the first fight since everyone will say it was Silva own undoing). Both of the bouts affirmed it a possibility Weidman could hang with Silva in the standup, even if it is just enough to secure takedowns.
What remains a mystery is if Weidman would have been able to land takedowns at the same success rate as in the first round in the later rounds. Though if he demonstrates that ability versus someone like Machida or another fighter with good TDD I'm inclined to think he would be able to take down Silva in the other rounds as well.

I hope this a general consensus of most UFC fans so that I get a good line on Weidman against Belfort. The fact that he rocked Anderson with a short punch from the clinch shows how much power he has. He has the best wrestling in the division and shows improvements in every fight. People seem to forget that in the first fight against Anderson he was coming off a long layoff, had surgery, had a difficult camp due to his house flooding.

In the second fight he dominated the first round and showed great understanding of range and movement against the best striker to ever fight in the UFC. Can Belfort beat him? Belfort can beat anybody on his day but if I can get Weidman around -150 to -180 I'll be very happy.

Feel like it will open up somewhere around -200 on Weidman, which is quite accurate. I see Weidman driving Vitor against the fence and beating him in the same way Randy Couture beat Vitor, clinch work, dirty box and wearing him down. Wouldn't be surprised to see Weidman tko/sub him in the later rounds.
Also, don't think we will see the regular TRT Vitor as the fight most likely won't be in Brazil.

The fighters I see dethroning Weidman are Machida, Gregard or Jacare. Machida because of his TDD and his standup skills which involve a lot of kicking techniques which seems to be one of Weidmans weaknesses. The other two because of their high level in grappling and/or muay thai.

vitor 100% wont fight without trt weidmans in for a rude awakening

How will he handle the TRT considering the fight will be in a state in which the regulations concerning TRT is handled differently than in Brazil? Will it be the same Vitor we've seen the 3 last times, meaning is there any legal way for him to maintain the same levels during training and fight day as before?

Against Mir he is a lock. Its just a style thing. Mir doesn't beat the strong gorilla strikers (excluding a green Lesnar). He will get knocked out again and quickly. I just don't see Mir improving enough standing and I don't see him able to get Reem down to the matt and sub him. The only Mir that has the slightest of chances is the Mir who fought Nog the 2nd time. He had real crisp striking, but that even looked like Mir saw something in tape that he implemented that modified uppercut.

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He won every round they fought? I'm not sure what more he could have done. He dominated 1st round of 1st fight then KO in second and then near KO in 1st of second fight and then TKO with the leg check.

Did you see anything in those fights where you felt Silva demonstrated he was the better fighter?

I know there's a lot of silva fans but Wiedman absolutely has Silvas number.
That being said I won't touch Wiedman vs Belfort

I was as big of a fanboy of Silva's as anyone, but he showed up old in this fight with a weak chin and a massive loss of swagger that he always had. Leg kick to the shin never would've happened to prime Silva. Prime Silva landed wherever he wanted.

Still, I feel like we were left without a proper dethroning of a legend like we got with Fedor. I would much rather see Silva go out via GnP in round 2 than either of these endings.

This fight played out eerily like the first fight. Weidman gets a first round TD and wins the round, yet you get the feeling future takedowns will not come easy. 2nd round all standup until Weidman wins via odd but legit finishes.

Weidman knocked down Silva, it wasn't a TD. What makes you think he wouldn't get future TD's anyway?

Yep. This.

There was nothing Weidman had done to Silva in the first round of the 2nd fight that Newton, Sonnen, Henderson, or Lutter hadn't also done (or something similar) to him at some point in their fights with Anderson. So apparently, unlike the majority on this board, I wasn't too surprised to see Weidman do it too.

Also, to suggest that Weidman had displayed superior stand-up based on 1 punch that rocked Silva is ludicrous. Anderson has been rocked multiple times by multiple fighters. Had Weidman displayed something different that we hadn't seen before, there wouldn't be anything to debate here. And since Anderson had an unfortunate breaking of a leg, who is to say whether Weidman would have been successful in later rounds with his take downs or with his stand-up.

I'm really not trying to take anything away from Weidman. He most definitely deserves to be the champion but I don't think either fights are indications that Weidman is better than Silva. The first fight Silva chose to combine all his in-cage antics we saw against Okami, Bonner and Griffin into 1 fight and the 2nd we saw Silva get rocked, knocked down, and controlled on the ground in a very similar fashion to the way Sonnen did, only to show a better performance in the 2nd round before breaking his leg.

I don't see how you feel Silva did well in round 2, he only lands 3 leg kicks all of which were checked with the final one breaking his leg. Literally nothing else lands.

I never said Silva did "well", I said that he looked better in the 2nd.

Weidman didn't land any shots that hurt Silva and Silva's foot work and ultimate rhythm was better than in the previous round. And this overemphasis of the leg-check is crazy. Many fighters time leg kicks. How often do you see the leg snap as a result? It was an unfortunate occurrence but not something one can use to determine that Weidmans stand-up is superior.

The leg check is a huge factor, in fight 1 the only significant strikes all that landed for silva were leg kicks and in fight 2 each leg kick was checked.

Silva told his corner he felt a crack in his shin from the first check and decided to continue kicking so it's fair to say it wasn't a 100% fluke. Did I think he would break his leg of course not but it stops you throwing leg kicks which is a huge advantage for weidman early in the fight. Silva decided to continue throwing them and the break was a result of that, he just didn't give weidman credit for his timing.

Silva didn't look great at any point vs weidman in 2 fights. Potentially he could have done better if the fights went longer but in both fights he was finished. He was also nearly finished in the first fight via sub and in the second via KO so we're not talking dumb luck here.

edit: btw I'm not saying weidman has better standup I'm saying he has a perfect style to beat silva as demonstrated twice. Great defense the power to KO with one shot and a superior wrestling and sub grappling game.

"Fluke", "luck", these are words that you all are using, not me.

I don't think Weidman is lucky at all, in fact, I believe the exact opposite. Although all the perks that come from being a champ, especially the champ that beat Anderson Silva twice has its benefits, I don't think he wanted either fight to end the way they did.