MMA Thread - Page 712 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Looking forward to Gonzaga/Miocic. I hope Gonzaga is a +200ish dog again so I can play him. Winner of this fight can have the winner of Mir/Overeem maybe then a number one contender fight if they win that since it'd a be decent streak

Also got 1u on Diaz, Maynard's chin seems to be shot and while Maynard can definitely win a decision it's a 5 rounder and Diaz should have the advantage standing and cardio wise and he has the BJJ to survive on the ground

With a perfect gameplan Maynard could LnP him but I just don't know whether he'll be able to do it, I think Maynard's prime is coming to an end

Awesome analysis. U convinced me to lay a bet.

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11-30-2013 , 04:35 PM

#17777

RB87

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,210

Also got Bader for next week at -300, I'm thinking of loading up on that line and then hedge out as I think it will go towards -350 pretty quickly once its released on a few more books. Anybody think the money will go the opposite way and people will be backing Perosh?

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11-30-2013 , 04:58 PM

#17778

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Bader's -300 vs Perosh? Jesus I'll probably just go all in there, he should be -750.

Tonight, Blanco, Diaz, Niinimaki, Spencer, and Holdsworth for me. Bit on Diaz inside as well

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11-30-2013 , 06:43 PM

#17779

Sect7G

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 11,234

Is Maynard vs Diaz a 5 rounder or 3?

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11-30-2013 , 06:50 PM

#17780

21times20

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,302

i remembering diaz complaining and saying that it should be a 5 rounder, but i don't think it was ever changed from 3 rounds.

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11-30-2013 , 07:00 PM

#17781

lakemonster

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 73

for those of you that pay attention, how has the fight day steam performed lately with these fights?

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11-30-2013 , 07:31 PM

#17782

Showtimez

banned

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,131

Doing a parlay:

Julianna Peña -260* vs Jessica Rakoczy
Chris Holdsworth -220* vs David Grant
Jessamyn Duke -235* vs Peggy Morgan
Rani Yahya -110* vs Tom Niinimaki

0.4u to win 1.8u 5d

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11-30-2013 , 07:47 PM

#17783

Chris M

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 580

Adding 1u on Rani Yahya -105 at 5d. Soooo, all my plays for tonight so far:

0.5u Diaz ITD +335
1u Holdsworth/Grant under 1.5r +125
1u Pena/Rakoczy under 2.5r +155
1u Rani Yahya -105

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11-30-2013 , 07:53 PM

#17784

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Glad to see I like the same sides as Chris M

Less happy with Diaz if it's a 3 rounder (I assumed all non short notice mains were 5) but I mean it's still fine I guess, just a larger chance Maynard can LNP him - I still like him as a dog here because I don't know whether Maynard will fight smart when Diaz starts flipping him off and calling him a pussy mid fight

Starting to like the Akira line a bunch at +185, I think he's more like +125 here

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11-30-2013 , 08:01 PM

#17785

just_mo

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Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by lakemonster

for those of you that pay attention, how has the fight day steam performed lately with these fights?

More often than not it seems to be right.

Swoop it IS a short notice, at least shorter than normal notice.

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11-30-2013 , 08:11 PM

#17786

anteatereater

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,977

Yeah, Diaz/Maynard became the main event just 20 days ago.

Tonight's event was supposed to have been headlined by Johnson/Benavidez 2, but when Pettis pulled out of the Dec 14th event (vs Thomson), Johnson/Benavidez got moved there. And Josh Thomson will now fight Bendo on Jan 25.

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11-30-2013 , 08:16 PM

#17787

RB87

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,210

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

Bader's -300 vs Perosh? Jesus I'll probably just go all in there, he should be -750.

Tonight, Blanco, Diaz, Niinimaki, Spencer, and Holdsworth for me. Bit on Diaz inside as well

A few euro books opened the line. I got it on Skybet.

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11-30-2013 , 08:20 PM

#17788

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Finished locking in my bets for the card. Got another 2u sidebet picking every side/fight on the card against mossified as well

Bets are

1.4u Diaz +122 average
2.5u Holdsworth -186 average
1u Yahya -113 average
0.75u Akira +168 average
0.7u Sampo -113 average
0.25u Duke -206
0.1u Holdsworth fight u1.5 +130
0.1u Pena fight u2.5 +100

Parlays
Diaz/Pena/Holdsworth/Yahya .25u to win 2u
Diaz/Pena/Holdsworth/Yahya/Akira/Duke/Sampo/Rosholt .25u to win 22.4u

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11-30-2013 , 08:25 PM

#17789

PuntIt

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 1,242

on maynard decent your about to see how overated nate diaz is cant believe so many ppl on him

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11-30-2013 , 08:25 PM

#17790

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

I'm going to the aus card next week, it honestly looks like now that Whittaker is off the card fading every aus/nz guy is probably the right play, I think Shogun even washed up is a small fav over Te Huna, Bigfoot beats Hunt with a smart gameplan and then the TUF Smashes rejects all suck, Barry should beat Palelei if he can survive the opening 2 minutes or so... Bader is obviously a big fav against Perosh... could be a very sad crowd (although i'll be happy if i'm fading the aussies either way)

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11-30-2013 , 08:31 PM

#17791

KillaCam818

centurion

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 106

Anderson Silva retaining his belt!

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11-30-2013 , 08:32 PM

#17792

anteatereater

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,977

benoit/sampo entering the cage now

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEZMcp_z-P0

there's only this one fight on the youtube/facebook stream.

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11-30-2013 , 08:37 PM

#17793

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Quote:

Originally Posted by PuntIt

on maynard decent your about to see how overated nate diaz is cant believe so many ppl on him

A year ago i'd have lol'd at the prospect of betting Nate over Maynard but watching him get KTFO'd by Grant and his talk of maybe retiring after that fight leads me to believe his head isn't in the game anymore and his chin is gone

I also scored the Guida fight 48-47 Guida and the second Edgar fight either 47-47 or 48-46 Edgar with r3 being a total coinflip so in my opinion Maynard is winless since 2010 (granted against elite competition)

Diaz looked bad against Thompson and Bendo but i'm less convinced he's washed up than Maynard

Also adding another 0.25u to win 1.3u on a Diaz/Duke/Holdsworth/Pena parlay

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11-30-2013 , 08:42 PM

#17794

PuntIt

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 1,242

guida is a hit n runner. grant is a legit contender as well whod run over diaz. diaz is going wanna box and not be afraid end up getting hit with bombs imo. but i guess well see nate i show up for paycheck like my brother diaz. diaz playable at 200+ but close to even for gray is a steal.

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11-30-2013 , 08:52 PM

#17795

SwoopAE

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Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Sampo looked good except for losing position to sweeps a couple times unnecessarily

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11-30-2013 , 09:01 PM

#17796

Chris M

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 580

Adding 1u Pennington/Modafferi under 2.5r -125

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11-30-2013 , 09:05 PM

#17797

piranha

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 1,239

Prelims on Direct TV 618 if anyone with DT is having trouble finding

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11-30-2013 , 09:11 PM

#17798

EbutDrool

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 496

Looking at some early lines Cruz is a quite a dog to Barao, what do people think about Cruz coming back from his injury? Renan looks great but it is still Cruz, ring rust and all.

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11-30-2013 , 09:28 PM

#17799

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Dober's from my hood. Glad I faded him lol man his chin is godly tho.

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11-30-2013 , 10:05 PM

#17800

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Quote:

Originally Posted by EbutDrool

Looking at some early lines Cruz is a quite a dog to Barao, what do people think about Cruz coming back from his injury? Renan looks great but it is still Cruz, ring rust and all.

If Cruz is pre injury cruz I lean him narrowly, in a vacuum I think Barao is a small fav since we dont know if cruz is the same fighter. I Like Cruz at +180 though, McDonald showed that you can take a round from Barao with perfect gameplanning

Need Yahya to win here to keep my big parlay live

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