Jones finishes everyone...but yeah there will definitely be a line for this.

Miller won round one against Bisping and had a close fight with Shields who is good. Bisping is also good.

He should work on his cardio in camp and not have the same problems he had vs Bisping.

Dollaway has lost to everyone remotely good he's faced. Miller is good on the ground, and Dollaway's biggest strength is his wrestling.

Overall, Miller is just the superior fighter in every way, and Dollaway doesn't even really have great KO power or anything, he has 1 knockout and it was against Mike Massenzio years ago in the UFC. He's been submitted twice and knocked out twice, I feel like a well rounded fighter can beat him anywhere.

I was all over Bisping vs Miller, as Bisping is better at everything but subs. This time though, Miller is better at everything than Dollaway except wrestling, but his ground game is good enough that if Dollaway gets it down (idk if he even can) then Miller has a chance, and if it stays standing, Miller should win provided he doesn't gas.

Worth noting is it's a 3 round fight so if Miller wins r1/2 and doesn't get finished he wins even if he fades late.

I haven't seen all of either of their fights but I feel like i've seen enough of both of theirs to know that Miller is the better fighter. If he's a small favourite or dog, i'll definitely be on him.

Is this a terrible bet or what? $150 on each

Brendan Schaub v Ben Rothwell Fight Of The Night 12.25

Pretty terrible, if it goes over 2 rounds then Rothwell will be gassed, if it goes under 2 rounds it's less likely to win FOTN. That said it's +1125 so whatever but I think it's a -EV bet

Eddie Yagin v Mark Hominick Fight Of The Night 8.80

If you feel like Yagin can hold on for 3 rounds or so it's okay, i'd be worried that he's getting knocked out in the first

Miguel Torres v Michael Mcdonald Fight Of The Night 8.10

Meh, not the most exciting BWs but any BW fight at +710 is okay

Rory Macdonald v Che Mills Fight Of The Night 8.10

I like it if you think Mills is good enough to keep it standing for a while

Jon Jones v Rashad Evans Fight Of The Night 5.60

Prob slightly +EV. If it goes over 3 rounds though it's basically a lock unless it's wall and stall or lay and pray

and i like Alverez thinking of doing an Alverez Bocek parlay

Meh, no real opinion

Anyone got a stat on how often prelim fights win FOTN? All four prelim card fights should be fairly exciting and evenly matched compared to the main card imo

This is laughable. How about wrestling, athleticism/physicality, and punching power?

I would just stay away from this because there are too many question marks about Miller. Is he even motivated any more? Dollaway is also nothing to write home about though.

I misspoke there I did state elsewhere in the post that Dollaway's wrestling is better but thats all and Miller is comfortable on the ground.

On the punching power thing Dollaway has precisely 1 TKO in 9 UFC fights and it was against Mike Massenzio. Miller was good enough to land punches and hurt Bisping standing, that's more than Dollaway's ever done (remember, Bisping is the #3 or 4 MW depending on whether you have him above Belfort, Massenzio isn't top 25)

Erick Silva only opening -175 vs Brenneman looks like value. Brenneman can win by wrestle-to-a-decision and thats it. I think Silva's good enough to TKO him.

Any value in Aoki at +250? I always think he's going to get stomped because his route to victory seem so obvious, but he always manage to cling onto some limb and drag his opponent down. Unless he fights someone really disciplined and smart like Gilbert.

Schaub -250, cool?

Will be losing some money on Escudero again at +175.

Ummm Massenzio is WAY better than anyone Mayhem has ever TKO'd. They also have the same amount of TKOs even those Dollaway has less than half the fights. Punching power clearly in favor of Dollaway. lol @ Mayhem hurting Bisping standing. Dollaway is also a far superior athlete to Mayhem.

Silva being -175 seems like free money, I'm right with you on this one. Brenneman's striking defense is bad. Ya his takedowns are good but I feel like this is a situation where Silva is only gonna need to get off one or two flurries of offense and the fight will be over fast.

@kingofcool when I just look at that fight logically I just see zero reason that Alvarez can't do exactly what Melendez did. But like you said, there's always that doubt in the back of my mind with Aoki.

Anybody else have an opinion on Escudero Danzig fight? I think this fight will be very close and getting +177 on Escudero on Pinnacle right now seems like great value.

I kinda assumed it would be at evens and was going to take Danzig

At current odds lean Escudero since I always take any +150 or better underdog in a fight I consider to be close to a flip but I won't be making a large play on that fight

A lot more value on 146 than 145 imo.

Schaub is going to crush Rothwell unless he gets clipped, but Rothwell is slow, so he should be okay.

I'm hoping some lines move in one direction or the other, if I make any plays beyond the 2.4u I have on Torres and 0.2u on Mills and Evans i'll post them before the event. There's a good chance I end up on Njokuani and maybe Thompson depending where lines end up.

Swoop thank you for sharing your logic but that just solidified my case for Dolloway. Hopefully the line opens with CB as a dog.

It's not a fight i'm super well versed on as i've only seen a few of both of their fights (compared to say Hunt/Struve where i've seen nearly all of both of theirs, or say Evans/Jones or whatever)

But if I have to pick a winner i'm taking Miller.

Dollaway has historically had weak sub defense. He got tapped twice by Amir who I think was a white belt at the time. He was also subbed easily by Tom Lawlor.

This is true. But Mayhem looked completely shot last time out, so I must doubt his ability to sub someone who isn't a can these days.

Jump on Jones -450 or hope it keeps going down hmmm

andre gusmao and stephen bonar went the distance .Quinton jackson also made it to round 4 and he is more agressive than evans .I wish I could get 3-1 on this going the distance

sportingbet/william hill/paddy power all giving 3-1

That was at the beginning of Jones's career when he had literally been fighting for about 9-10 months (or something nearly as ridiculous).

I think it's much more relevant that he recently finished lyoto, bader, rampage, vladdy and shogun inside the distance. And 8 finishes in a row. Just something to consider.

schaub/rothwell is terrible, rothwell's recent fights have been horrendously awful. he has no gastank. Plus fights that are 1st round stoppages, like HWs do more than anyone else, rarely get FOTN.

Yagin/Hominick is bad because it's a squash match, and those rarely get FOTN. It needs to be somewhat competitive.

Torres/McDonald is good. BWs go to decision more than any other division, but these guys are both talented and evenly matched. There's lots of potential for 15 minutes of fast paced action with lots of ground and stand up fighting.

Mills/McDonald is meh for the same reason as Yagin/Hominick.

Jones/Evans is short odds, not sure. The fact that Jones is likely to blow him out hurts.

torres/Mcdonald by far the best bet imo.

lol thx for doing that so I didn't have to. Three years ago, Andrei Arlovski was the number 2 HW in the world. Relevance ftw.

Betting -450 favourites in MMA against a fighter the caliber of Rashad is a bad idea. You only bet fights like that if it's Cris Cyborg vs a random can imo, it'd be interesting to see the full results of all +400 favourites vs all -400 favourites over the past few years and see which is more -EV to bet, i'd wager it's the favourites

ummm wat

If someone's a -400 favorite, they are overwhelmingly likely to win. As long as I judge that chance to be >80% or whatever the specific odds are, the bet is actually a good idea no?

Of course, I just mean it's rare to be able to accurately judge someone wins over 80% of the time against competent opposition unless it's a total mismatch.

I suppose Jones could just be that good, but Machida made him look human, and given Evans has trained with him and is also an elite LHW it's tough to see value at -450

Well I did a little research on your theory that betting -400 favorites is unprofitable.

Small sample size, etc but I checked back on every -400 or more favorite this year and it seems they are 16-2 thus far. That would turn a nice little profit if one had bet on every one of them.

Sure Rashad could win. It's sports, underdogs win sometimes. I just see it as extremely unlikely.

go back another 6 months. Big Underdogs seem to win waaaaaaaay more than expected in MMA.

lol it was annoying enough going back through 4 months. Not saying it's gonna yield an insane profit but the point is that betting on sizable favorites isn't as insane as Swoop here is making it sound

I think overall just betting on favorites is -EV, otherwise you could always bet on favorites and turn profit. Point is, you have to look at individual fights and make the assesment if it's + or -EV.