FYP.

swoop, i don't have any money on struve/hunt either way, but I think there's a flaw in your thinking.

you've said several times that Struve only loses to X level of HW and beats Y level of HW. What this fails to take into account is that Hunt is very, very different depending on where the fight goes.

It's not so simple as saying "Hunt is not a top/elite HW". That's a true statement, but so what? Hunt is absolutely an elite HW striker. He's the best striker Struve has ever faced other than JDS. He's not an elite HW because of his wrestling/ground game. But his best attribute (punching power) plays directly into struve's worst aspect (defense and chin).

It's not so simple as the case that struve loses to 'top/elite HWs'. He loses via a specific mechanism when he loses (getting hit squarely in the chin). The same goes for Mark Hunt, actually. Hunt almost always loses via the same mechanism (submission). Reducing it into 'Hunt is not a legit top HW, Q.E.D. Struve wins' is foolish. It's about the matchup. Hunt is a much better fighter than McCorkle but lost to him because of the matchup involved.

The line is close because the fight could go either way, and it may be the case that Struve is good value. But the reasoning you've used isn't very sound.

Kongo is a fav over hunt for sure if they were fighting now.

no he's not.

Pretty much what CTM said.

He dealt with Barry's striking well enough not to get KO'd and got the sub

Barry is the most similar fighter to Hunt that he's faced so far imo if we're going for a comparison

yes he is because after what happened last time he'd spam takedowns and win via GNP and topcontrol over half the time unless hes totally ******ed

CTM bringing the logic ITT.

But I do expect Swoop would be correct about Kongo's strategy in a rematch. Would he be able to execute it tho? Diff matter entirely, guy isn't exactly a "takedowns at will" fighter.

Bisping -315 vs Boetsch...thoughts?

Is there any value at Jon Jones -450. I know it's unpopular to call anything a lock, but how does Jones lose this one? Any scenario aside from some freak hit?

We've never seen him off his back, that's about it.

If Rashad got him down I wouldn't be shocked if he was able to pass guard

Will be interesting to see as Rashad is definitely one of the best MMA wrestlers in the division. If he gets Jones down I expect him to keep him down a bit actually as he has very good ground control and because it's alot harder for lanky fighters to get up than it is for short. I hope Rashad comes with a good gameplan, he can definitely win some rounds or even possibly TKO/KO Jones if he keeps him guessing with the hands and takedowns, it requires a lot of faints and closing the gap real fast. Then again, Jones is one of the most effective strikers in terms of damage. I see him at some point in the fight either getting Rashad to the ground or teeing off of him on the feet to a TKO.

Also, I never bet -450, especially this. There's some fights where you just can't see how the opponent can win, but this ain't one of them.

Will bump this if Struve wins by TKO

It's more possible than you think (although less likely than by sub or hunt by KO/TKO obv)

Bisping wins easily 90% of the time via being better at everything and get flash KO'd the other 10%

Wait for one of the better sites to come out with lines though (sportbet or pinnacle basically) as you'll get Bisping for -250 to -280 region probably

Using a one fight comparison isn't really that helpful. But if we really want to force a one-fight comparison, Hunt is a better version of Barry with much better striking and more power. And probably better grappling as well. Barry is truly horrendous, the man got submitted by Cro Cop and Tim Hague.

And you overlook the other striker Hunt is kinda similar to, Roy Nelson. Fat guy who hits extremely hard. Yes, Roy has way better grappling, but seeing as Nelson/Struve lasted less than a minute, that hardly mattered. Again, if we're using one-fight comparisons, we can prove anything.

You should really just admit that this fight is more complicated than you originally allowed. You know that the above post is not solid thinking.

...assuming that Cheick Kongo is not totally ******ed, i guess. And that him spamming takedowns means he can easily take hunt down, which I don't think is necessarily true. Hunt's TDD seems to have improved somewhat, although it's still not great. But mostly, I don't trust Kongo to fight intelligently.

This is basically right, although maybe sub 80% for 90%.

The Bisping odds seem about right to me, tho Boetsch is a very physically imposing MW with solid power. Still can't imagine Bisping will lose this.

@Swoop, the only way Struve ever wins a TKO finish is a bad step in by the ref or a situation like Wand/Fujita where he lands a bunch of unanswered strikes while Hunt is struggling to get up and the ref calls it due to not "intelligently defending" even if Hunt is able to get up right after the call. Sure there's a chance, but I don't think it's enough of one to even discuss. But do you really think money is gonna come in on Boetsch? I'd be shocked honestly.

I think there might actually be value on Jones at -450. Rashad's gonna hold him down for 5 rounds? Doubt it. Jones is one of those rare fighters who only needs one moment of offense for the fight to end.

No, I think the spread will be similar but the vig is WAYYYYY smaller at pinn and sportbet

Like -315 +240 becomes -275 +255 type difference

Got a bit less than 2u on Thompson @ -350 but that line got hammered to -420 fast.still -300 at sport bet I think.

Matt brown is in trouble this weekend.

He's back to -298 now

I'll wait and see if I can get him close to -200 i'll make a big play, -250 i'll make a small play but I rarely bet -300 or better favourites

I expected the lines to open closer so its a pity. Still hope he wins, the WW division needs contenders and I can't wait to see if Erick Silva or Stephen Thompson can

Annoyingly the 4 guys I wanted to bet opened at worse odds than I expected, may still get on Njokuani at -175ish though

I'm on Torres and Schaub for this card, but I'm kind of like you swoop - I was annoyed the undercard lines weren't juicier. I thought they were mostly well set. If I had been able to grab Browne when he opened at -155 I would have jumped on that, but he quickly went up to -250 to -260 range most places.

I'm fairly high on Hendricks against Koscheck looking forward. He was a better pure wrestler than Koscheck was, he's six years younger and closer to his actual wrestling years than Koscheck, and he hits harder than Koscheck.

Josh gross picking Ben rothwell to win straight up really annoys me.
Swoop do you mind explaining a little bit your logic on Mayhem over Dolloway? You came at it from a perspective of Dolloway not being a particularly highly ranked MW, which is fair, but I was wondering how you see Miller actually getting the win, or where you see him having some advantages.

When Schaub is fighting, there's always a risk for KO on his part lol, but I think he's just going to outwork Rothwell a bunch of the time. He's got better TDD's, he's faster, a lot better cardio(which is a pretty big part), and not to mention, he lost via KO last time, so we know he's going to be pretty careful not to lose by KO again. He's going to tag Rothwell a few times on the feet, then shoot for a takedown and either finish it there, or possibly grind out a decision.

Everyone is judging Mayhem on his last fight, which may not be fair because I don't think we'll be seeing that Miller this time around. With that said, whilst being a good grappler and having many wins in his career, he's facing UFC competition now(not the best ldo), but still Dollaway is a well rounded fighter(5-4 in ufc) and unless he can take Dollaway down and quickly submit him, or possibly come in with a great gastank and grind out a decision, he's going to have a hard time winning. Fwiw, I think Miller can takedown Dollaway, he has that clingy type of takedowns with nice trips.
Prediction, bc I like Miller, 2nd round rear naked chock for Miller.

Hominick over Yagin,
Bocek over Alessio,
Mcdonald over Che,
Thompson over Brown,

Miguel vs Mcdonald is one tough fight to call. I hope Torres wins it though, he's got a good ground game, even on his back, so I hope he can pull it of.

And also, Rashad, I hope, via TKO, faking a double leg, then quickly throwing a right hook and staggering Jones and then getting to side control and throwing monkey fists to make the judge step in at end of round 2.

I think McDonald will beat Torres though I'm not sure he's going to have much offense.

Any thoughts on Aoki vs Alvarez? Alvarez is a bit over 2 to 1 right now.

Is this a terrible bet or what? $150 on each

Brendan Schaub v Ben Rothwell Fight Of The Night 12.25


Eddie Yagin v Mark Hominick Fight Of The Night 8.80


Miguel Torres v Michael Mcdonald Fight Of The Night 8.10


Rory Macdonald v Che Mills Fight Of The Night 8.10


Jon Jones v Rashad Evans Fight Of The Night 5.60

and i like Alverez thinking of doing an Alverez Bocek parlay

Does anyone know if there is a line on the jones /evans fight going to a decision? I think this is going to be a boring fight and a lot of dancing around.I think its going to be a decision

Stephen Thompson -277 vs Matt Brown, UFC 145... ugh I wanted a better price but it's tempting

I think I may largely avoid the card at current prices - got a couple units on Torres, and a tiny odds play on Mills and Evans but the card just sucks for betting as all of the guys I wanted to bet opened at way worse prices than I expected. Maybe Njokuani if price gets slightly better?