Yeah, Lil'nog makes no sense. Gustaffson just passed nog in terms of rank imo. I mean it really all depends whether they want Gustafsson for a title shot or not. idk whites thoughts. The thing is, his next fight should def be his last fight before the titleshot, assuming he wins and therefor, whoever he faces has to be at the same stage, if he wins, he gets the shot, and atm I just can't see anyone except for Hendo. Shogun isn't going to get a titleshot, Bader is also a bit too far away.

Swoop, which direction are you leaning towards on Hunt/Struve? I have some thoughts, but since you seem to have a very strong lean I'd love to hear what your thoughts are. Who do you favor and why?

Post event thoughts...

Diabate would probably lose to DeBlass if he had a full camp. As Swiiftx said, he was lucky to escape that with a win. That draw scorecard was an embarrassment, one of the judges gave DeBlass the 2nd. Simply indefensible.

Thiago looks like he might be shot. His last fight was not a good performance either (tepid decision over...David Mitchell) and his chin is clearly not what it used to be.

Scored Siver fight 30-28 Siver, wouldnt argue with 29-28 Nunes though. Called that one to a tee a couple weeks ago when we first discussed, Nunes just has not been impressive with his offense, he doesn't score near enough points.

I would say Gustafsson should be one more fight away from a shot, the division needs new blood pretty bad esp if Jones wins, which is a near certainty IMO. Let Gus take on Bader or Hendo if he's down to man up and pick up the gloves instead of turning down fights when he didn't even rightfully win his return fight. Machida makes no sense as his next fight for the reasons Swoop mentioned. Too likely he'll beat Gus and then when Jones wins, what?

PS sick rungood taking down a 215 PLO tourney Swoop lol, WP.

Thoughts on Torres/McDonald? I think Torres is kind of overrated and McDonald underrated....feeling like a small play on Mcdonald is correct but wondering what you guys think?

Struve, and he should be closer to -180 than -110. I have a large bet on him. Scroll back a few pages for my reasoning.

I like Torres, as McDonald fought to a SD with a lower level guy and Torres has only lost to the best although its hardly bet of the century

Struve has a tendency to get hit square in the face in all of his fights. Knowing Mark Hunt is going to do that gives me pause on betting Struve.

this, and its not like he just goes in looking to take fights to the ground, ever. Didnt do it even against Barry, and Hunts TDD is much better than barrys, though the groundgame isnt a big enough difference between the two for anything but the same result

I think there's ok logic behind backing either, though I favor Hunt to KO Struve. Struve could honestly probably sub him by pulling guard though.

Sick fight either way.

Great match-making

Yeah, he's facing the same type of fighter that KO'd him the last times. Struve is a very high risk fighter, in nearly all of his fights that he won, he's been nearly finished. I think the fight is going to be a flip tbh.

I never got the hype about Joe Silva, best match-maker in the game. I think it's fairly easy tbh and some fights are just logical to happen. Like what ability does he have that other match-makers don't have. I mean say u have 20 fighters, they're divided into top 5, top 10, top 15 and top 20. Basically you match guys about the same rank, a better ranked guy faces a lower ranked guy if the better ranked guy lost a fight and the lower ranked guy won a fight and also no more than 5 ranks away. And especially at top 5, there aren't many choices.

Ok cool, i'll brag again like I did after he beats Herman when all that all of you remember are his highlight reel losses and none of the wins he grinded out

Might I remind you that Struve is 7-3 in the UFC and has only lost to two top level guys and a flash KO to Browne (who may be a top 10 guy in the future)

He's 7-0 against lower level to mid level guys. Hunt is a lower level to mid level guy and he doesn't beat Kongo over half the time, we're being results oriented by the fact that Kongo had a bad gameplan AND that he didnt jump on Hunt when he slipped.

If there was a rematch at evens i'd take Kongo over Hunt fwiw.

I just don't understand how anyone can think Hunt is the favourite here, even if he happens to win the fight Struve is the +EV bet just like he was against Herman and Barry and McCorkle.

I kinda think Struve can be a top 10-15 HW in a couple years as he works on his striking and fills out his frame. He's going to be a beast when he cuts from 280. He's never going to beat Cain/JDS caliber/style fighters though obviously.

Also yeah Joe Silva's job is common sense, any educated fight fan could do it.

Anyone else REALLY hoping that Stephen Thompson opens at a good price vs Matt Brown?

Same with Njokuani vs Makdessi. It would be nice if one of the two of them opened as an underdog or only slight favourite.

I don't think he will swoop, he got too much attention with his flash head kick in the media and now everyone is going to be all over him. If there's going to be any value, it's going to be on brown.

Think this could be the opposite of results oriented, whatever that is.

Haha fair enough, but he's still going to win. Everyone can continue to tell me i'm wrong, just like they were all so sure Herman was a lock.

I'd be very surprised if Thompson opened as an underdog. Brown's record is extremely underwhelming, and Thompson has some hype behind him.

Thompson has great striking, and seems to have pretty good TDD (although we haven't seen much). I think he's a solid favorite over Brown, who is mostly a grinder without any high level skills in any area.

To be even more fair to Struve, Travis Browne is hardly a random. He's undefeated and a big time prospect imo. It's not a bad loss at all.

thoughts on browne/griggs undercard fight? Underrated fight. Griggs is 11-1 with 11 finishes, Browne is 12-0-1 with 10 finishes.

How long are you going to keep holding onto that one? Everyone makes rights and wrongs. In reality you can never be 100%, there's surely been a time when you were certain a fighter would prevail and then he lost. Do you think Nelson has better striking/power than Hunt?

I remember you holding onto to Kongo vs hunt as well, even though Kongo had never really pursued a wrestling based gameplan and he was facing one of the best standup guys in HWD with a very good chin, which is opposite to Kongo, very hittable and has been dropped lots of times vs fighters w Hunt's power.

lol @ Hunt doesn't beat Kongo half the time. Kongo is one of the most hittable fighters in the world, literally no head movement. Hunt has great power. I considered betting Kongo because he has such a clear path to victory (decent takedowns and top control), but Kongo just looks over the hill at this point. He has looked good in exactly 1 of his last 7 fights and that was against Paul Buentello.

Also once again you cannot call a KO "flash" when someone gets socked square in the face by haymakers in every single fight. Serra beating GSP was a "flash" KO. If Browne and Struve fought 10x, Browne would probably starch him a bare minimum of 3x, that's not "flash."

Fair enough

What it boils down to is the same as the herman fight - is Struve's opponent a legit top heavyweight

I maintain that he isn't, as evidenced by the Rothwell and McCorkle fights.

McCorkle just got TKO'd by Brian Heden for what it's worth. Who? Yeah, exactly

Apologies if i'm coming off as combative, I just really like Struve both as a fighter and as a pick for this particular fight and like usual, i'm the only one making the case for him.

I kinda think even if Hunt hits him, if it isn't a one punch KO then he can pull guard while rocked like Werdum did against Fedor and start working from guard for the sweep or triangle from there - not to mention he has all the subs as well as good GnP if he can get a takedown.

Additionally, if it goes more than 1 round, Hunt will gas, and that's an automatic win for Struve basically.

Hunt has about three minutes to knock struve out in a single punch imo. Any longer and he's done for. He'll get it done about one in three times. I'd say Struve wins via sub about one in three and by lopsided decision or ground and pound the remaining third. I don't see Hunt winning by sub or decision ever.

If only it were that simple lol as a fighter has to be at a certain level to beat someone though. Then all of this analysis would be a whole lot easier. But it's not because the dynamics of fighter matchups arent as simple as A is ranked higher than B, so A obv beats B. B can still beat A if A has a hole that can be easily exploited by B. Both fighters have clear edges here.

You're right, they both can win. I just think out of 10 fights it'll be something like Hunt by KO twice, Hunt by TKO once, Struve by decision once, Struve by sub four times, Struve by TKO twice (give or take, estimates obviously)

I've put my money where my mouth is with 650 on Struve so we'll see who's right soon enough I guess