I'd definitely like to see it, and JDS isn't a huge HW so if he comes in at 220 Hendo would only be giving up 15-20lbs or so

I definitely agree with all above, was simply contesting someone ITT saying "no one wants to see JDS vs Cain again". Although I believe JDS vs Mir is just BS. It's better not to sell a championship fight then to sell this one. Previously this year we had jones vs rampage, and the outcome was boringly expected. I think Mir chances are just as thin. For a competition point of view, I hate this match. I wanna see the champions being challenged by the best out there constantly, not just collecting title defenses. Agree with Hendo and Werdum being better match ups. Those guys actually have a shot. Not bashing Mir here, but his weaknesses are just too easy to exploit against a guy like JDS.

saw the bet and thought about it cuz horodecki shouldnt be -350 against just about anyone, but decided dude must be terrible and let it be at that

So Reem is def out? That's a bummer, he's the one that had the highest % of winning against JDS. 2nd is Cain but as swoop said, you can't give a guy who just lost via KO to him a shot, he needs to win 1 or 2 more fights.

Not sure, doesn't look good for him.
My friend and I just got tickets to see 148, and we will certainly be running multiple parlays, thoughts on undercard fights?
I really like Brandao at a reasonable price, and really like Dolloway at frankly any price.
I like Barboza over Dunham but that seems like a pretty well set line.
At first I was all over Ludwig, but after watching some fights and spending about 15 minutes in deep thought, I think Hardy wins.
Thoughts on any of those fights?
And I like JDS over anyone in the main event.

Not definitely he has until April 24 to test clean at the hearing. The UFC will make a ruling on April 24 on whether its Reem or someone else but confirmed JDS is still defending his title on that card.

@IBPoker JDS is on 146, not 148

148 is

Light Heavyweight bout: Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin[6]
Middleweight bout: Rich Franklin vs. Cung Le[6]
Middleweight bout: Michael Bisping vs. Tim Boetsch[6]
Welterweight bout: Demian Maia vs. Dong Hyun Kim[6]
Bantamweight bout: Renan Barão vs. Ivan Menjivar[6]
Lightweight bout: Melvin Guillard vs. Fabrício Camões[6]
Middleweight bout: Constantinos Philippou vs. Riki Fukuda[6]
Lightweight bout: Gleison Tibau vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov[6]

plus Cruz vs Faber for the BW title

on 148, i'd set the lines at roughly (and lean towards taking either fighter at a better price than)

Tito +190 Forrest -190
Rich -240 Le +240
Bisping -320 Boetsch +320
Maia EVENS Kim EVENS
Barao -500 Menjivar +500
Guillard -270 Camoes +270
Philippou -130 Fukuda +130
Tibau -130 Nurmagomedov +130

Note that for the last three fights odds are approx. as I haven't seen Camoes, Fukuda or Nurmagomedov fight enough to make an accurate judgement

Anyone think any of my lines are way off?

That was fun so i'm going to do the same for 146

JDS -170 Overeem +170 (current price -165/+158)
Velasquez -270 Mir +270 (current price -355/+319)
Nelson +160 Bigfoot -160 (current price +182/-199)
Del Rosario -120 Gonzaga +120 (current price -180/+171)
Hunt +180 Struve -180 (current price +109/-109) - currently have 6.5 units on Struve at average of -108
Barboza -200 Dunham +200 (current price -234/+220)

Brandao -320 Elkins +320
Miller -200 Dollaway +200
Volkmann -120 Sass +120
Hardy -120 Ludwig +120
Kingsbury +210 Texeira -210
Brown/Pineda i've never seen Pineda fight so no idea couldnt even guess.

Some sick cards coming up. 146 147 and 148 all look amazing.

UFC 146 is going to be interesting with five heavyweight fights as the main card.

Anyone else want to take a crack and handicapping some of the upcoming events at prices based on what they think the actual win % is? Curious to see if there are any huge differences.

Oh and Cruz/Faber would be Cruz -290 Faber +290 or so fwiw

Here are a few of my very unscientific guesses on fights where the line's not up yet...

UFC 146
Hunt +105 vs. Struve (I think Hunt should a reasonably heavy favorite)
Barboza -240 vs. Dunham (I thought the line should have been more like -300)
Brandao -400 vs. Elkins
Volkmann -200 vs. Sass
Hardy -250 vs. Ludwig
Teixeira -250 vs. Kingsbury
Brown -200 vs. Pineda

UFC 147
Werdum -350 vs. Russow
Arantes -400 vs. Vieira

UFC 148
Bisping -250 vs. Boetsch
Franklin -300 vs. Le
Barao -350 vs. Menjivar
Griffin -280 vs. Ortiz
Philippou -300 vs. Fukuda
Guillard -400 vs. Camoes

(I did these without looking at your picks, BTW.)

So now that I've looked at your picks, looks like we differ with a bunch of them.

In UFC 146, you think Struve is good up to -180, I think Hunt is good up to about -150. I think Barboza, Brandao, Volkmann and Hardy should be heavier favorites.

In UFC 148, I think Griffin, Philippou and Guillard should be much heavier favorites. You think Bisping and Barao should be a heavier favorite.

Man that sucks about the overeem/jds fight potentially falling through. I totally tricked myself into thinking maybe just maybe he got yolked from working hard .

The five heavyweight maincard will be interesting to watch.

Interesting

I'd like to see a few other people do the same, then work out whether the thread average is close to the actual odds or if there are a few we all agree on

Ludwig could def beat Hardy, I see that as a tossup.

Yeah, ludwigs a standup veteran, anytime there's a guaranteed standup battle, because let's be honest, Hardy won't and isn't good enough to take it to the ground, there is a pretty damn good chance of veteran winning.

Also just saw, pitbull vs akiyama in the summer, hello free money.

JDS -100 Overeem -100 (current price -165/+158)
Velasquez -350 Mir +350 (current price -355/+319)
Nelson +180 Bigfoot -180 (current price +182/-199)
Del Rosario -120 Gonzaga +120 (current price -180/+171)
Hunt +150 Struve -150 (current price +109/-109)
Barboza -300 Dunham +300 (current price -234/+220)

Brandao -250 Elkins +250
Miller -150 Dollaway +150
Volkmann -100 Sass +100
Hardy -100 Ludwig +100

Bisping -200 vs. Boetsch +200
Franklin -300 vs. Le +300
Barao -400 vs. Menjivar +400
Griffin -200 vs. Ortiz + 200
Philippou -300 vs. Fukuda
Guillard -350 vs. Camoes +350

Interesting there swiitftx, I like Paul Sass too but i've underestimated volkmann before.

Also interesting to see you favour Struve over Hunt; did he win you over in the herman fight (I remember you had herman there) or do you think Hunt is bad, or do you think Struve matches up well with Hunt, or a combination?

Am I also the only one who thinks Boetsch will turn out to be nowhere near as good as his win over Okami (in a fight he was losing) suggests? Bisping is going to absolutely wreck him, and if Bisping is anywhere close to -200 i'll be all over him.

Do we remember what happened last time people underrated Bisping and I said he's got a chance? Oh right, he 'lost' to MW #1 contender Sonnen in a close decision (that I had 29-28 for Bisping)

I actually think Bisping is going to finish Boetsch by TKO (or if not then win a lopsided 30-27 decision)

I am not sure about Struve Hunt fight, on one hand, Struve is def the more complete fighter, but he's had problem with short aggro power punchers. I think this is actually a -100 for both fighters, or somewhere around there, though Struve may be a small favorite odds wise. This fight is going to be a bit similar to the Pat Barry fight I think except for the fact that Hunt doesn't throw as many leg strikes as Barry but has a better chin and more technical hands.

Considering if he's won me over, not yet, I think his first round against Herman was pretty bad. I don't think he will be able to do what he did in the first round when facing Hunt because Hunt is going to be a lot more aggressive and not as tentative with his strikes are Herman was. At some points Herman was playing the distance game with Struve which is the worst thing you can do. The way to beat Struve is to get on the inside and start brawling, which is exactly what Hunt is good at. However, Struve has a very good submission game and it is totally possible that what happened in the Pat Barry fight, happens here.

I think Bisping wins majority of the time and his odds would be higher if it wasn't for the fact that he has a suspect chin and Boetsch hits decently hard. Now that I think about it, Bisping should probably be -250 to -300.

Idk why I put volkmann as a favorite tbh, he's lost to 2 good grapplers in kampmann and Thiago, and judging from Sass resumé, he's at the same level if not higher as those 2.

Yeh I meant ufc 146.
I'm torn on Hunt Struve, Struve is so hittable, but Hunt would seem to be hugely vulnerable on the ground. I do like the idea that Hunt is being overvalued though.
I think if you had Ludwig fight Hardy's last 4 guys, he gets owned even worse then Dan did, so I am not really killing Hardy for losing 4 straight. He should be a bit bigger than Ludwig, I don't know...
Surprised I am the only one on Dolloway. How does Miller win that? He looked so atrocious on the feet, will be much smaller than Dolloway, and has no way to get it to the ground where he probably has an edge. Maybe I am overreacting.

A lot of people are acting like round 1 vs Bisping didn't happen, he looked excellent in the first round and terrible in rounds 2/3 after he gassed, if he can get his conditioning in order he can definitely beat Dollaway, CB is the gatekeeper from 'semi can' to 'gatekeeper to the contenders' level in the MW division. Basic lower-mid level guy in the UFC. If Miller can't beat him, he's done, and I don't think Miller's done yet. I'll definitely get on Miller if he's at close to evens but I doubt he will be especially since casual fans like him.

The thing is, Hardy is supposed to be an elite striker but he loses pretty harsh against other quality strikers, and it's not like he put up a competetive fight against any of his 4 last losses. He was losing the standup to all of the before mentioned 4 fighters. Yes, vs GSP and Johnson he was worried about being taken down, but he didn't show much better succes vs Lytle or Condit who he didn't have to worry about taking him down. I'm not saying he doesn't have good striking, just that it isn't really all that good and when he's facing a former Middleweight Muay Thai world champion, it's going to be a lot closer.

Hardy stated "....tap?...I dont know the meaning of tap." Yeah we saw that in the Lytle fight...

Ludwig is better than Hardy technically but Hardy is probably going to have more size and power. Hard to say who will have the edge but I think Ludwig will do well enough to warrant a bet at decent dog odds.

Also hard to judge Miller's chances. Obviously he looked horrific against Bisping, completely unable to get anything going besides some tepid top control in round 1. If he comes out looking anything like that, Dolloway is going to pummel him with ease. But when someone puts forth a career-worst performance like that, it's always tough to draw conclusions with any level of confidence that matters.

I certainly wouldn't say Miller looked "excellent". He did nab a takedown, and did absolutely nothing with it, it was a close round, and its fine to even say Miller won it.
But its unlikely he can takedown Dolloway, who is much more physical than Miller, has better wrestling, and pretty good power. Dolloway is hittable, but it doesn't seem like Miller has a ton of power for a 185er, so it seems like Dolloway's weakness shouldn't be exploited.
Like I would give Miller the edge in a pure grappling match I think, but I don't think he can submit Dolloway from the bottom, and if it goes to the ground, Dolloway is likely on top. Do you disagree with any of that?