Man lol @ bocek coming out at +150 vs Wiman. I gotta get some money to 5d to jump on those lines.

Also how in the hell is Gonzaga +165!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! against Shane Del Rosario. Gonzaga is a mfin beast and Rosario is coming back off of a Mir esque accident..

Jebus theres some soft lines coming up.

View: Hunt doesn't have bad sub defense, all his losses are just flukes.

Discuss.

He's been armbarred three times. I know you're just trolling my 'some of struve's ko losses are flukes' type statements but when you get armbarred by McCorkle at UFC-level, you're doing something wrong.

Hunt absolutely CAN win this I just don't think he does at anywhere near the % needed at current lines

Gonzaga is tempting at +171, he would have won the Schaub fight with better gameplanning.

Big Country is actually tempting at +195 too, Bigfoot's chin isn't the best, Nelson's is good and Nelson could turn his light out like he did to (ironically) Struve and Schaub

I'm almost always one to bet against Big Country but if he gets over +200 I might make an odds play.

I actually kinda like all of the underdogs at 146 at current prices (except Hunt but that fights close to evens anyway). I couldn't bring myself to bet against JDS but Reem is very dangerous.

Obv I'm trolling to point how absurd it is to call a guy's loss a "fluke" when every loss he had he was starched by punches. Hell he was dropped by em in just about every win too. That's the opposite of a fluke, it's a trend.

Gonzaga looks like a definite play to me too, I mean we don't even know what the hell Del Rosario is going to look like, and he wasn't anything special in the first place.

anyone else like Siver +131 vs Nunes? Siver was a beast at LW against anyone not huge like Cerrone, won't have that problem against Nunes who struggled with Florian's size

I think Siver wins about half the time, Siver's been bet in a lot already from +179

Seems decent to me, I mean obv +180 is a helluva lot better lol...why shouldn't Siver win this though? He's struggled in the standup with aggressive, high volume guys (Pearson, Cerrone). Nunes doesn't really fit that mold.

If I remember correct Nunes only lost to Florian bc he got taken down repeatadely and spent considerate time on his back. Siver doesn't posses the same dangerous ground-game/takedowns that Florian had. That's a legit tough decision to make, one of the closest fights of the night I think.

And yeah, it seems you use the word fluke liberaly whenever you want to dismiss a loss a fighter has.

Gonzaga gameplanned a lot better in his last fight, he's a pretty crafty BJJ practioner and I think he's going to do the same in this game. Though I have to see some more of Shane.

Silva has a lot better technical standup than Nelson and should dominate it, and I don't see Nelson taking him down or subbing him. Yeah, there's a possability of Nelson catching him, but I don't think it's going to be that often.

Fedor finally in the UFC! Hopefully he drops to LW.

But Nunes' striking has not rly impressed all that much so far. He's winning decisions and not even winning them all that dominantly, dropping rounds to MTB, Gamburyan, etc. Granted both of his recent losses were to fighters with more wrestling-based games than Siver but Siver is gonna bring a higher-volume striking style than Nunes' other recent opponents.

I'd say the possibility of Nelson catching him is pretty damn decent. Silva's chin is awful.

It's April 2nd already in Australia

Also, Fedor lost to Hendo who lost to Rampage who lost to Bader who lost to Tito. So MMA Math says Tito > Fedor.

Now titos win against Bader, that was a fluke.

Sadly after seeing his most recent performance against lilnog, yeah, tito wins that one less than half time time. I wasn't convinced tito was done until the last fight.

Forrest is past his prime too though so it's a good retirement fight for him which is slightly winnable if things go well. I actually hope Tito finds a way to go out on a win.

Forrest > Tito, just in general attitude and personality. Though I'm pretty neautral when it comes to tito.
Either way, both of em are on a decline, tito more so since he's stated it's his last fight. However, I just can't take Forrest any serious anymore, after the Shogun fight especially. It seems he just want to pick up his check. Which is fine if he puts his heart into the fight and tries to win and not just fold over if he gets even a little bit of resistance. I mean, Forrest knows he's never going to get another shot at the title and I think bc he's made so much money, he's not as dependent to fight for his career as other fighters are, even if they are in the same position contender wise. They're not as wealthy as Forrest so they know they have to win in order to stay in the UFC and make money.

I just don't think he cares anymore whether he wins or not. He basically doesn't have anything left to fight for except the money, but he's already got the money after going into the fight, so there's not much left to fight for while he's in the octagon. I might be completely wrong but that's the impression I've got after seeing his last fight and his statements.

I agree

If he decides to retire, win or lose vs Tito, i'd like to see Griffin/Bonnar 3 as his retirement fight - give Bonnar one last shot at getting a win over him, and Forrest a chance to go out 3-0 against his greatest rival

I'd actually give Bonnar a good chance if they fought again, he's improving a lot recently and Forrest isn't

Not to mention it'd make a great co-main event for a card or main event for a FX style card and the fight itself would be a war as always

If Forrest wins he goes out on top, if Bonnar wins he gets a top-10 win and one last chance at a run as a contender

Yeah, Forrest Bonnar would be a good matchup, might even be some nice value on Bonnar if he's too much of a dog.

Also for those who haven't checked out TUF Brazil, I just saw ep 1 + 2, seems a lot of nice prospects.
http://www.ufc.com/tuf-brasil-episodes

I saw one of the best rounds in the preliminary fights, just incredible, the whole fight was just amazing.

Thanks so much for posting. Awesome

Yeah i've been watching it too

Lots of great fights on first ep, second fight was a bit meh, won't discuss to avoid spoilers

Should be a good season

And yeah, I also think the talentpool seemed a lot better than most other tufs.

Forrest should beat Ortiz without much trouble. The guy is consistently folding to body strikes, and he can't exploit Griffin's biggest weakness (his chin).

I expected it to be higher quality. Brazil is the, country-wise, mecca of fighting. They've never had a TUF there before so I expected it to be kick ass.

Poop froze on me from a pause so I had to restart and I still re-watched the first elimination fight.

This Brazil season is a little weird because there's a ton of fighters way off their natural weight classes AFAIK. I think there's even a LW masquerading as a MW (Massaranduba).

Finally watched that Jury/Iaquinta, and I have to say I cannot imagine how anyone would have scored the first 2 rounds any other way than Jury/Iaquinta. Seemed really clear cut to me, Jury landed way more in the first and Iaquinta landed more in the second plus had him hurt twice IIRC.

That's common on TUF. First MW finale was Florian v Sanchez, Danzig won WW, Rashad HW, etc ...

lol it's not "common" in 2012. Who was the last guy to move more than one weight class? No winners since Joe Stevenson and that was season 2.

And it's the first season there, weird.

Rashad could easily cut to MW btw