korean zombie will pull off an upset against Aldo. he will take him down and submit him

It's +1200 if you think that's the case def take that bet!

I see an Aldo highlight reel here, there's a reason TKZ is getting only $20k to fight

Just saw Rua by decision +519 seems really high in a fight that's near evens

1u -- Machida by 3rd dec +115
1u --Watson by 3rd dec +340
1u to win 3.2u -- Aldo by TKO/KO, Machida/Davis goes 3rd dist, McCall/Santos goes 3rd dist

1u each -- Magny by 3rd dec, Watson/Leites goes dist, with...
Aldo in the 3rd to win 54.6u
Aldo in the 4th to win 69.4u
Aldo in the 5th to win 99.1

1u each -- Moraes by sub, Watson/Lietes goes dist, with
Aldo in the 3rd to win 48.1u
Aldo in the 4th to win 68.3u
Aldo in the 5th to win 87.5u

10u to win 9.4u -- Aldo/Jung starts 2nd, Conor McGregor

Didn't think so at Aldo winning r5, it was r3 that was the deciding round if it was 48-47 Aldo from memory

I agree Aldo is very good. I just don't think he's on the Jones/Anderson/GSP level of dominance that would say top 3 p4p (If Weidman wins the rematch i'll reconsider Anderson's current status there) I just don't think he beat Edgar, think Edgar had an off night even in the close fight AND think he cheated to beat Mendes who hadn't had the benefit he's had now of improving his striking with Bang Ludwig - the TAM guys are much better strikers now than at the time of that fight and he showed vs Florian and Hominick that he's vulnerable to guys that aren't actually that amazing. I don't expect Jung to win but he's +640 now there are worse underdog bets to make imo

Added a unit on tome after lineker failed to make weight

Good to see hes back on horse meat. He should TKO/KO Browne if he doesnt **** around. Or just LnP like he was doing to Big Foot.

I think everyone in the world agrees Edgar won round 4. Therefore the myriad 49-46 scores out there lead me to believe most scored Round 5 for Aldo.

Evidence.

This Edgar had an off night **** is a joke. He looked fine. He was simply up against a better fighter.

Florian and Hominick didn't show ****, they got dominated except for Hominick taking the last round after Aldo won 4 straight including a 10-8, knowing he was safely far ahead on the scorecards.

It's sad that you won't recognize how good Aldo is, I would figure as an MMA fan you could appreciate him but I guess not.

Also, if Aldo loses, I figure there's a decent chance it's because Jung subbed him. Guy is one of the slickest grapplers in MMA, bar none.

Of course I think Aldo is good I think he's top 10 p4p I just don't think he's top 4 like a lot of others. I think an equal sized cruz beats him, I think mendes is 50% or so to win the rematch and Anderson jones and Gsp are all better assuming Anderson still cares about winning. I also think Edgar is 50%ish to win a rematch on neutral ground and would take Pettis and bendo over him as dogs too. Not denying he's good I just think he's not as good as the odds suggest vs other elite fighters and think if he had to do his whole title reign over he loses at least 1 fight over half the time

Bets for UFC 163:
0.76u Machida/Davis goes distance -165
0.5u Machida by decision +115
3u Watson/Leites goes distance +103
0.25u Watson by decision
0.5u Ferreira/Santos goes distance +165
1u Lineker/Tome under 2.5r -120
0.25u Yahya/Clopton goes distance +250
1u Sergio Moraes -130
0.5u Barroso ITD +150

Will post if I add more. Good luck everyone!

Not many bets for this card, machida is pretty much my make/break.

Machida -370 5u
Machida -355 3u
Machida via dec +115 2u
Aldo via KO -160 3.5u
Vinny -400 1u
Machida/Aldo/yahya -169 1.5u

Florian actually came out looking very good the first round but I think Aldo is an absolutely fantastic fighter, love his ferocious soccer kicks.

Yoyobobo, how do you determine your units?

Look at their respective fights against Faber. It's not hard to draw meaningful conclusions at that point.

Ya'll should go back and rewatch Florian vs Aldo round 1. 10-10 round if I ever saw one, wall and stall at its finest. I don't believe that's enough to win a round, and I firmly believe Vera got robbed by terrible judging against Couture when the same thing happened.

Disappointed in Lineker but hopefully he can still win :/ Need a finish from Aldo as well, hopefully he can crack that Zombie chin. Might fire Zombie sub prop as a hedge, I really am impressed by his grappling. Though Aldo supposedly is an excellent grappler (which I believe, I mean look at his team), we haven't seen his grappling look anything other than what you would call solid. Zombie is just so slick on the mat.

Its hard to remember the last time I was this disinterested in a UFC card. My only play is Machida at -300.

Disinterested from a sports betting perspective or a viewing perspective?

Both.

understandably so

I've changed the way I've been doing it since getting murdered at ufc 162, but 1u = 1.5% of my roll... And if I say 1u on a fav, im playing to win 1u (for example 1u on machida at -355, I'm actually risking 3.55u)

Then I just judge what 1.5% is at the beginning of every other month

Probably not the best system, but I'm in the black, and would be killing it if not for WAY undervaluing Weidman

So you have over 20 units on Machida? Or am I reading it wrong?

GL!

Like this card from a gambling perspective, I'm risking around 3U on interesting props and pretty much break even if just one hits.

Wish I'd also added .2U on TKZ prop (site issues) as will be pretty frustrated if it hits but nevermind should be fun card to watch especially r3-4 cheering for an Aldo stoppage!

A decent alternative would be Zombie wins sub of the night, which was +2500 last I checked at 5d's. I think if he subs Aldo, he'll get sub of the night the majority of the time, barring some super slick move elsewhere on the card.

And F me, was about to add more on Watson by decision, which jumped to +527, but it moved back down as I was typing this post.

Dangerous night to bet on sub of the night, lot's of top level bjj guys on this card

Yeah, as I said before I think this Is a really low variance bet, with value... With the exception of something crazy happening, should be an easy win for Machida.. Just no real path to victory here.

With him being such a big underdog, Aldo being a top p4p guy, and the fight being the main event, the UFC will often err on the side of giving him sub of the night even if the sub is standard and non-flashy.

Machida by decision up to +132, adding a unit.

i wouldnt call it that low variance davis is solid and has only lost once and has improved since then but whats 20 units i know in this thread it means all over the place like 1 unit=100$ 1 unit=1$ im just really used to 1 unit = 1% off your roll

True the underdog factor makes it more likely but there's also the potential for some crazy sub to happen early in the card. Some real world class grapplers in the cage tonight!