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07-07-2013 , 05:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by elliot10181
No one can be sure, but there are many similar theories on other forums (mma.tv) I'm certainly not the only one with this point of view.

It's no different to the assumption that he was clowning to impress the crowd or display dominance all of these things are just theories.

Part of my job is as a MMA mindset coach so it's not like I'm coming at this from a position of limited experience.
AS has said himself, it's a part of his gameplan to get emotion out of the guy so he can make mistakes. And then, AS is a theatrical guy, it's a part of him and you won't get any information just for the fact that he does it.

I just felt like someone else said, AS felt a lot faster than Weidman in the 2nd round and he felt it too and got too comfortable. Your point that he realized how serious it was, he would have done the same thing as in the Sonnen fight, he would have tried his best to mount an offense on the feet. Beside, he threw plenty of hard leg kicks, and if he was that worry about getting taken down, he wouldn't have thrown as many. Also, in the first round, after they got up, AS dominated the standup for the rest of the round(a solid 2 min), landing very decent leg kicks, a head kick and some clean shots.
Also, Weidman had one takedown attempt that failed in those 2 mins, and I bet fighters can tell when their opponents strength have gone down a bit, and how secure they're feeling about if they can be taken down or not.

So your point about him feeling that this was very serious doesn't make any sense. AS felt that when he faced Sonnen and it was r3 and Sonnen was taking him down constantly, you could tell by the way he came out and fought the rounds in a very high pace looking for the TKO/KO.

Round 2, first thing AS does is throw a leg kick, that's how worried he is about getting taken down.
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07-07-2013 , 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingofcool
disagree, ellenberger always gas.
It's too bad because i would love for him to win.
Yeah his cardio ain't the greatest but only 3 rounds here. Big thing is though, plenty of people have touched that chin, and Ellenberger's not the guy you want to do that. MacDonald better get this one to the floor, but he kinda seems like he's fallen in love with his striking.
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07-07-2013 , 05:43 PM
I'm saying it's the only option he had left to clown and try and draw Weidman from his game.

Silva didn't dominate the standup for the second 2 minutes, the best shots were the punches Weidman landed by the cage. Clowning is not winning the standup, at worst it was even.

VS Sonnen by the third he knew Sonnen couldn't really threaten him on the ground so he could throw those confident strikes, and if he got taken down more weak GNP and no sub attempts. Weidman in 2mins on the ground landed heavy shots and had 2 close sub attempts. It's two very different situations with a massive risk reward differential.

Silva was throwing the leg kicks very low (because of TD risk), only a couple landed clean the rest were checked or hit lower leg. Re-watch silva lands virtually nothing of significance other than a couple of leg kicks in the whole fight.
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07-07-2013 , 05:59 PM
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2013/7/7/...by-ko-to-chris

haha... crazy... he doesn't say anything about the "ko" though... but the "tired" and "no rematch" parts... feel very much like the post-fight interview.
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07-07-2013 , 06:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by elliot10181
I'm saying it's the only option he had left to clown and try and draw Weidman from his game.

Silva didn't dominate the standup for the second 2 minutes, the best shots were the punches Weidman landed by the cage. Clowning is not winning the standup, at worst it was even.

VS Sonnen by the third he knew Sonnen couldn't really threaten him on the ground so he could throw those confident strikes, and if he got taken down more weak GNP and no sub attempts. Weidman in 2mins on the ground landed heavy shots and had 2 close sub attempts. It's two very different situations with a massive risk reward differential.

Silva was throwing the leg kicks very low (because of TD risk), only a couple landed clean the rest were checked or hit lower leg. Re-watch silva lands virtually nothing of significance other than a couple of leg kicks in the whole fight.
I watched the fight before I posted.

As I said, you cannot draw the fact from the clowning that AS felt it was the only thing left. But yes, he does the clowning to draw people from their games and to make them uncomfortable, either way though, it's not something that we see when AS is losing, otherwise we would have seen it in the Sonnen fight.

In my opinion, Silva won the last 2 min of round 1. He landed several low leg kicks and 1 to the head(though partially blocked by weidmans arm). He prevented a takedown. He landed the crisper and landed more strikes than Weidman did on the feet, which I'm not surprised he did because Weidman has surely been training defensive standup as everyone knows AS big strength is his counter-attacks.

Against Sonnen Silva felt urgency, he felt Sonnen could get him down at will and he had to do something before being taken down. It had nothing to do with the fact that he wasn't scared of Sonnens top game, he wasn't, but he knew Sonnen could win a unam decision by LnP.

My opinion is that AS felt weidmans strength decline after the 2nd takedown attempt and he got confident Weidman wouldn't be able to get him down at will. Just like in the Henderson fight.
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07-07-2013 , 06:13 PM
lol Anderson admitted he did it to try to get Weidman to open up his defense. It's a tactic he's used many times in the past, had nothing to do with "Weidman's strength declining" I mean where are you even getting that from? You're just blindly conjecturing.
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07-07-2013 , 06:18 PM
Silva only lands 3 leg kicks, Weidman slips every punch and a blocked head kick isn't really a scoring strike.

Silva was 2 rounds down vs Sonnen wasn't threatened with a finish on the ground and therefore had no reason not to go 100%. Silva was in more danger with Weidman in 2mins than Sonnen for 4 rounds on the ground.

If he wasn't worried about the takedowns he would have been throwing far more knees in the clinch situation as he usually does.

Still I guess we have to agree to disagree, onto the next card...
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07-07-2013 , 07:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by just_mo
lol Anderson admitted he did it to try to get Weidman to open up his defense. It's a tactic he's used many times in the past, had nothing to do with "Weidman's strength declining" I mean where are you even getting that from? You're just blindly conjecturing.
I'm explaining myself badly, I ment it more like, after the 2nd takedown attempt, he felt Weidman couldn't get him down that easy. It's like with the GSP Diaz fight, GSP got Diaz down easily in the beginning but was struggling in the later rounds and I assume it has to do with cardio and GSP being pretty muscular, or?
Beside, AS is pretty slim, he doesn't pack a lot of muscles so his cardio is actually quite good during a fight.
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07-07-2013 , 07:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by elliot10181
Silva only lands 3 leg kicks, Weidman slips every punch and a blocked head kick isn't really a scoring strike.

Silva was 2 rounds down vs Sonnen wasn't threatened with a finish on the ground and therefore had no reason not to go 100%. Silva was in more danger with Weidman in 2mins than Sonnen for 4 rounds on the ground.

If he wasn't worried about the takedowns he would have been throwing far more knees in the clinch situation as he usually does.

Still I guess we have to agree to disagree, onto the next card...
yeah this is getting nowhere.
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07-07-2013 , 07:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by just_mo
Early looks for next fight:

Moraga +340 looks good, guy has solid power and Johnson gets clipped way too much for my liking. He recovers well and has great cardio but it's gonna catch up with him at some point.

Ellenberger +200 we've already discussed a bit ITT.

Maybe a Danzig sub prop? But Guillard should really win this.

Mitrione looks good good -125, Schaub's chin just can't be trusted, and odds are Mitrione clips him at some point.

Masvidal should definitely beat Chiesa but this is like the 8th time I've said that the guy keeps winning.

Not sure about Siyar vs Lawler, any thoughts? Thinking Bahadurzada, I mean Lawler just gets eaten up by good strikers, all depends on if Siyar can take the counterstrike.
Ellenberger I like a lot. Even though his gastank is not the best, it's only a 3 rounder and Rory himself doesn't have the best cardio + he's very hittable which bodes good for Ellenberger.

While Schaubs chin is not to be trusted, I think we'll be seeing the same thing that he did vs Johnson and that is get Mitrione down. Mitrione doesn't have the best cardio if I remember correctly. Though definitely thinking about u1.5 r for that fight. 2 big active fighters with power.

Think I'm going to be on Siar.
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07-07-2013 , 07:41 PM
lost around 9u on the card mostly on silva and siver. was there live would take silva in a rematch if he wants it but it seemed like he just didnt care anymore after. playing main atm. think siver was a good dog bet at the price. also gracie and kennedy are just ****ing awful crowd started a mexican wave for almost a full round out of boredom
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07-07-2013 , 08:11 PM
2u on Ellenberger at +191. Think the odds will get worse on this one as Ellenberger had a good last fight and he's the underdog and many ppl view this as a tossup fight so they will bet him.
3u on Siyar at +103. Meh, should probably have waited on this one considering Lawler won his last fight against a big name and Siyar lost his fight, so Siyar is going to get better odds.
2u on Guillard at -105. He should beat Danzig easy and I expect people will bet on Guillard so odds will just get worse.
1u on Schaub at +104. He can gameplan Mitrione and Schaub has realized he has a ****ty chin and is going to be looking for takedowns which I think he can get. If he just survives the first 2.5 min, he should win relatively easy.
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07-07-2013 , 08:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by just_mo
Solid
His post or your genitals?

The reason we are all so disappointed is because we spent so much time going through the scenarios but never included AS turning up on magic mushrooms. We still don't know who really had the better argument. But from the looks of the actual action we saw, I'm still confident with my bet on AS.
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07-07-2013 , 11:15 PM
all silva haters anyone wanna book up to 20k at even money on weidman for rematch?
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07-07-2013 , 11:30 PM
Man, even if someone was willing to take that bet there are much, much better spots. Silva could be a shadow of himself after a defeat and he certainly won't be any younger once the fight is put together.

Don't rush to win your loss back place sensible +EV bets on fighters that hold a stylistic advantage and don't try to do it all in one bet.

Good luck
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07-07-2013 , 11:48 PM
2U on Ellenberger, makes sense to book it early
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07-08-2013 , 12:24 AM
Comeonguys, out of interest where are you placing those bets? Most sites won't take large bets on MMA and 50K is serious by anyones standards
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07-08-2013 , 02:10 AM
Adding 0.5u Maia/Koscheck over 2.5r, and 1u Overeem/Browne under 1.5r -120.

Also got 1u in on Rousey/Tate under 1.5r at -215, but it's since moved so it's whatev.
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07-08-2013 , 02:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by elliot10181
Comeonguys, out of interest where are you placing those bets? Most sites won't take large bets on MMA and 50K is serious by anyones standards
You can get 6 figs quite matched quite easily on fight day alone, but obv limits are small, even more so than most market, weeks leading up to an event. However, some uk books (including ones that limit you after 2-3 bets) take unusually high bets from newish accounts at times. Remember getting 2-5k hits in a few times while pinny still had a 1k limit on the fight. Obv didn't last long lols.
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07-08-2013 , 05:28 AM
Elliott, after our discussions, how confident was you feeling after the first round of the Weidman fight?
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07-08-2013 , 07:40 AM
Was confident after the first as wiedman had hit the takedown and slipped almost all of Anderson's strikes in the standup.

I was expecting it to go 3rd/4th with a sub/GNP finish at that point.
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07-08-2013 , 02:40 PM
a rematch in brazil would be interesting.
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07-08-2013 , 03:27 PM
Dana's just said he wants it at the MGM for the new years card
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07-08-2013 , 04:13 PM
Silva looks like he is bored with fighting and the he is taking these risks to keep it interesting. Almost like he is giving himself a handicap.

He is a very confident person, never seen him afraid or doubting himself and that is what separates him from Jones and GSP. At the moment, it looks like he is not even bothered by the loss (or at least not yet) I am sure he knows he can beat Weidman if he had to but that is just not the way he does things.

If you ask me part of Weidman knows he did not beat the best version of Anderson Silva. He actually looked more pissed than happy for someone who just KO'd the greatest UFC champion. He looks short changed, like Anderson told him "even if you beat me, you did not BEAT me".

Silva treated the fight like a sparring session and to me this was disrespectful to his fans, the betting public and to his status as World Champion.

If anything good came out of this is we have new champ who will try and build a legend of his own and many interesting future main events, would love to see Vitor, Jacare and Sonnen against Chris. Anderson at LHW would be great although we may actually see him fight Roy Jones JR lol ...
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07-08-2013 , 05:00 PM
Excellent article on Silva vs Weidman including video's and gifs

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1...illed-the-king
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