oh and assuming both dudes are close to equal in skill a kickboxer has a significant edge over a boxer. frankly it amazes me that some folks have a hard time understanding that. So i will give a very basic reason as to why The kickboxer has more weapons on offense and less to worry about on defense. Can a boxer beat a kickboxer sure but when that happens the boxer was likely a much better fighter. Back to the alistar jds fight. Keep in mind that alistar doesn't have to worry about being taken down or being attacked below the waist at all. So he can pretty much put 100 percent of his defensive effort into blocking punches. Imho the only way jds can win is to jump on alistar and swarm him and yes that can absolutely happen just not often enough for jds to be favored imo.

Frankly, it amazes ME that people are actually coming ITT and saying Reem is going to win because "kickboxers > boxers" in a standup fight. That is one of the most overly simplistic statements I have heard in awhile WRT to analyzing sports.

Is Roy Nelson a "much better fighter" than Struve? They would seem to be on roughly the same level at the moment, beating lower level fighters and losing convincingly to upper level fighters. How about Shogun? Is Dan Henderson a "much better fighter" than him? That would laughable to suggest.

IT COMES DOWN TO THE INDIVIDUAL FIGHTERS, PEOPLE. Blanket statements and hard and fast rules do not exist for stuff like this. I can promise you that if Overeem beats JDS up it will not be because "kickboxers have an advantage over boxers."

Most of the people ITT, including both of you, strike me as knowledgeable, analytical people who have a good eye for MMA (even if Swiiftx thought he could take Ronda Rousey ), and I just think you need a way, way better reason to bet on Reem than this weak logic.

Last time it started with Cruz about -140 or something, he got backed in to -110ish during the leadup, then out to -180 by fight time on the day of the fight

Are you sure? I thought I remembered Cruz being in the -230 range...

I thought that his fight with Faber was competitive but I didn't see it as particularly close score-wise. Don't see any reason this would be any different.

Tusch wasnt a fluke but Tusch is awful. If Kongo pounced when Hunt tripped, Kongo would have won via GNP probably. I maintain Kongo should beat Hunt over half the time. Sure hunt CAN beat Struve, but he has precisely one way to do so and Struve has more ways to win the fight. Odds arent out but if Struve is better than -150 i'll have multiple units on him.

Don't really see how Struve has "more ways to win" unless you're counting there's more than one sub he could sub him with lol but Hunt will prolly only knock him out by punching him in the face. Don't see Struve ever finishing with strikes...

Struve can definitely win via GNP or by hurting him standing leading to takedown then sub. It's less likely, but I remember a lot of people here saying Struve couldn't finish Herman by strikes either. Most likely, Struve gets it to the ground somehow and locks in some sort of a choke.

Struve gets better with every fight and will probably be a top 10 HW in a few years if he can fill out to where he cuts to 265 and get better striking defense

Hunt is a completely one dimensional striker who got a lucky win against Kongo and i'll be putting my money where my mouth is again on Struve as I did against Herman (assuming reasonable odds obv)

To be fair, I don't claim to have any real knowledge, I just like seeing fights and try to break them down as analytical as possible, taking in all factors, conditioning, style, chin etc. I've never fought myself, except for 2-3 muay thai lessons. I'm just one of many keyboard warriors out there.

I just think this is a close fight, with both fighter being around the 50%(I hate putting it into % bc most of the time ppl are just talking wild guesses, I mean the standard deviation may be smth crazy like 30%) mark to win, could be 10% up or down, and since Reem currently has a price at 2.5, meaning he only needs to win about 40% to be, I think it's a +EV bet. Let's compare some factors.

* I think JDS has slightly better cardio. Both of them tends to fade if the fight goes past r2. Though Overeem has become a lot more conservative with his striking than he was before, just by watching his 5 latests fights compared to his old days in pride where he was quite aggressive and open w his strikes, which may be one of the reasons he got TKO'd a few times. Anyway, I don't see this being much of a cardio issue tbh, I think the fight isn't going past round 3.
* JDS is faster, but smaller in size and weight so he's not going to be able to materialize any takedowns, at least not the 2 first rounds when we see a fresh Reem.
* I don't know much about their groundgames but I don't think it's going to be important and I can't really see anyone submitting the other. If anyone gets punched and tagged, I see his opponent more likely to finish of with punches than a submission.
* JDS chin is untested, he hasn't been hit cleanly on the button that much, at least not as hard as Reem has. Reems chin is decent, he does a fine job of covering up when he gets hit these days and is a lot more defensively aware than he was before in his career.
* If the fight stays on the outside Reem is the winner, if the fight gets on the inside, JDS has his best chance of winning, but even then, he's got to be aware of the thai clinch of Reem. You rarely see Reem being in the middle, he's either staying on the outside picking his shots, measuring distance, or he rushes you and attempts to knee or w/e, but you rarely see him trading off punches where his opponent can punch him back, he's pretty much always either coming forward to knee you or staying a bit far away timing w punches and kicks. I think when he moves in with his hands up trying to grab u, that's when JDS has his best shot of firing hooks or uppercuts.

But these last fights Reem's had, he just shown such a proffesional approach to the standup game.

It's like Shane Carwin said, it's funny that Mir is trying to lift weight and says he's gotten a lot stronger, but that ain't nothing bc I've been doing strength training, wrestling, lifting weights since he was 16 or smth. He said smth along the lines of that if I remember it correctly. My point is I respect the standup of the older fighters like Hunt and Reem because they have not only trained and fought in MMA, but in pure kickboxing matches where u have to be truly on of the best to win the tournaments they have.

It's like someone who is a standout in BJJ and competes in Abu Dbabi and wins, you know he's going to have a huge advantage when it comes on the ground. Now the question is ldo, can he keep it on the ground, if not, how well does he transition to the standup area of a fight. That's where a fighter like Hunt has not had the best transition from standup to ground. But everyone who knows anything about MMA, all the prediction videos I watched, read articles etc, said(most of them anyway), Hunt is far more experienced and has faced far better standup competition than Kongo. If Kongo doesn't take Hunt down, he's going to get TKO/KO'd. The question in that fight was whether or not Kongo would gameplan smart or try to stand and bang with him.

Anyway, enough with the rant, hope it explained some of my reasons why I think Reem is a good bet.

He's very good at what he does though and has an iron chin. I don't know the fluke since he's a better striker than Kongo. If they stay standing, he's winning at least 6-7/10 times.
I don't see KO/TKO Hunt on the feet, but he could def get some sort of takedown and do what he did to Herman, mount him and throw down punches till the ref stops it due to not "intelligently" defending himself.

Reem's chin is not decent. He has a lot of skill but someone who finds their mark early and often(JDS) has a huge advantage.

Agree to disagree. We can talk about it after the fight when one of us is counting his money. I am going HEAVY on this fight. At least 8 units if i can find a way to bet that much.

This is essentially what I've been saying. Saying Reem has a decent chin is just farcical, the guy has proven time and again he cannot handle serious pressure and hard punches to the face. Think JDS ends this early. Also, I think JDS chin is pretty proven the guy was tagged with a couple huge bombs from Roy Nelson and barely flinched.

"Reems chin is decent"

wtf is this?

The shots JDS took from roy weren't really that big of bombs. It wasn't any combos, mainly just big right str8's that JDS saw coming.

Reem got tko'd twice by shogun, both where on the ground from ground n pound, especially the first time he got mounted and the ref stopped. Vs Arona it wasn't a clean KO but he tapped while Arona having his back and it seemed he got punched in the eye. My point is, you can say he doesn't have a lot of heart and gives up easily when punched, but his chin is decent.

But anyway, I agree that he has shown weakness to being punch hard in the past and that JDS is totally capable of firing off fast punches and TKO'ing Reem. Gl on your bets.

I tend to favour JDS over Reem, but Reem is seriously dangerous if he lands. I'll get on JDS if he gets to -140 or so i'd say otherwise i'll leave it alone.

so few understand about actual fight dynamics.

I appericate reem has improved, matured is stronger.

JDS is a whole other level above Reem in speed, especially speed, his striking is light years ahead of reem.

Reem can beat JDS but only if the guy dies on his feet here,

That first round, when JDS is fresh he is going to have a considerable advanate vs Reem its going to take the fight going into the second half of the third and Reem having better cardo for reem to pull this off.

Are we saying we like reem to get a hold of JDS and knee him to death?

JDS is special, reem is lethal but he needs to be in there with the right person and JDS is the totally opposite.

Fokes that know about mma bet JDS hard here at -150.

Also this guy normally has a soild outlook on mma, and this is him talking about this one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ll8Y4dOZrWA

I will be putting at least £100 to £200 on JDS, reem wont be able to move fast enough, this is not a beast thai striker against a beast thai striker this is different.

Edit: For ref, I think JDS has taken some considerable head knocks and was well able to recover and carry on.

This fight comes down to movement, if JDS has good movement on the night its all over, you might as well call it now because if he lands on his chin with even a 1/2 of his power reem is over.

Ya I will be on JDS for multiple units here, probably will prop for 1st round finish as well.

And Nelson absolutely hit JDS with huge haymakers. There were at least 2 huge shots I remember, and if Overeem took those I'm absolutely certain he would have been covering up against the cage at the very least.

personally i doubt jds will be able to close the gap is this fight. He has never fought anyone with the reach of reem and he will have a hard time adjusting. Back to the boxer versus kickboxer argument nobody is saying a kickboxer will always beat a boxer. Just the same when you have one of the best kickboxers on the planet versus a guy who wouldn't even be in the top 30 if he was a pro boxer yea i'm gonna say the kick boxer has the advantage in the striking department. I also think it's a mistake to assume that jds can do what shogun and harri did. Not to take anything away from jds but his all around striking will never be on the level of shogun in his pride days. That's not to say he can' t win the fight though. I actually agree with jds backers when they say that if he gets in and lands some bombs it's over. Where i disagree is how oten he can do that.

If a swing for the fences guy like nelson can catch jds then surely it will be that much easier for reem to catch him.

JDS is a very risky bet against Overeem,

Overeem has much slicker stand-up, tons more experience and I believe more power. He also has an underrated submission game that people here seem to have forgotten. He has 19 submission wins some against top competition and thats a huge number for a fighter considered primarily a striker.

Take a punt if you must but don't bet the house on JDS.

Currently Evans looks like best odds to me, he won't be intimidated by Jones after the years of training and has the speed/KO power to cause the upset. Jones is obviously the favourite but +400 seems like a good price. I think the price should be closer to 250/300 in this fight.

How long til we start getingt odds for the tuf live fights, in order to take maney the f do. Maybe since they're considered exhibition, it's problem.

Idk, just a wild guess, I don't think we will see them at most betting sites.

Prob, unless a bunch of ppl want to email the bookmaker or 5d asking about it. Anybody here want to bet on Friday's tuf fight of Lawrence vs. Marcello? I'd take Lawrence for something like 500-2k at evens? Escrow and all...

Odds are up at bookmaker for tuf

For the whole show or individual fights? Interesting

If Lawrence beats Marcello I can see Cruz's team having all but one or two of his guys advance

I love seeing Cruz make Faber sweat his 'pick your best guy' talk then no one standing up completely owned Faber and his team

Odds are currently Lawrence -200 Marcello +150 on bookmaker so you can get action with a bookmaker if you're desperate