Wanted Edgar by KO here but the books didn't put the line near where I hoped, wanted +200 or so. Thinking about taking a shot on Do Bronx actually if he hits +450. Prop by decision maybe since Edgar is practically unfinishable.

i think u guys are sick picking jacare against the thunder at anything near evens. And i aint even an okami fan.

and i can't for the life of me get my head around why anyone, like literally anyone who isnt just straight hating, is on weidman in the 2 to 2.5-1 range ???

spider -265 allllllll day kiddies. i mean ffs last time out he stood with his hands down and his back against the cage blocking punches with his face against a bigger man and still KO'd that fool in rd 1.

also leaning roger, siver (when it hits +200) and munoz but havent booked yet.

He could do that as Bonnar literally offered no threat to him, he doesn't have KO power, Subs or Wrestling. Bonner wasn't even top 20 at the time (ranked 26th when they fought). The size difference is of no relevance when there is such a huge discrepancy in skill, it was a complete joke to set up the fight.

I'm taking the bet as I feel Weidman has the perfect mix of skills to be a legit threat to Silva, and I'm pretty sure there is some truth in the rib injury rumour.

Silva should win but I think this could be the changing of the guard and I'm happy with +230

Their whole promo for the Bonnar fight was that, yeah AS is going to win but he won't be able to finish Bonnar bc Bonnars never been finished before and he's so tough, promoted it more like it was an exhibition fight for AS, which it was.

One thing speaking in favor for AS is that Weidman has to fight the perfect fight(don't see weidman finishing AS, AS has a ridic chin, good skin for not getting cuts, though there definitely exists an opportunity for Weidman to sub AS if AS leaves openings when he's trying to get back up from a takedown), where as AS basically just needs a little room on the feet to finish Weidman. After watching Weidmans standup in the fight against alessio sakara, it was really sloppy and while it has gotten improved a lot, it's so far beneath AS standup.

If Weidman doesn't do what Sonnen did, and that is bring an erratic standup with ultra aggressive takedowns he might do what Sonnen did, and that is make it hard for AS to time him. Though in that, he has to be fearless, and just be pressing forward while at the same time maintaining cardio. Basically what Cain did vs JDS. Only problem here is that AS gastank is going to be deeper than JDS and I don't think Weidmans gastank is as deeps as Cains. If Weidman does what Okami did though, it's going to end up in the same way. What he doesn't want to be doing is trying to stand for a bit, trading shots so he can setup his takedowns.

Silvas standup is definitely above JDS's, and Weidmans standup is below Cains.

Silva can finish this fight at any moment, while they are both standing.

Well yeah, but the point was that we're looking at a similar scenario as the JDS Cain fight with some differences.

I'm hoping for it to look like Silva vs Sonnen 1 (rounds 1-4) if it goes like that I expect a Weidman finish.

Adding 1u Edgar ITD +145, and 0.5u Edgar/Aloevera u2.5 rounds +100.

this could describe anything.

if i myself got in there against the spider, it would be a similar scenario to the JDS Cain fight, with some differences.

but to respond to the point i think you're trying to make, even if weidman tries to "sonnen" him, i doubt he has the skillset sonnen does, is probably not going to be on the roids as chael was that night, and more importantly, even sonnen himself couldnt do it a second time.

Well it sure as hell describes the weidman AS fight more than you vs AS. I used that fight as a reference because of some important similarities between the two fights, which I think we all can agree on.

Anders/JDS has the better pure standup(not talking about takedowns which can alter the standup to a degree, like in the 1st sonnen fight), though the standup disrepancy is much bigger in the AS/Weidman.

It's a 5 round fight, and Weidman/Cain have to use aggressive takedown attempts in order to win the fight. Cain had to do it to bring the tempo up, bc obviously JDS didn't have the cardio to do it for 5 rounds, so he could tire him out, which is why he rocked him in the first round, much like Sonnen kept on tagging AS. Reason why Cain won 2nd time is because he never gave JDS the chance to settle in and do his own attacks.

Now the questions are if Weidman can keep that 5 round tempo, and if he does it for say, 2-3 rounds, is AS going to be as tired as JDS was in the 2nd fight?

^ I dint think so. AS is fairly calm off his back and should be fine card wise. + apart of JDS problem was from the bomb he ate in the first, and being over trained.

The only thing you really have to worry about here, is if silva gets to scared of the TD. In that case Weidman has much more room to breathe.

i totally agree. he got zombiefied by that one huge shot, and i think everything that happened after the first round is not very useful when trying to forecast how their next fight will go other than maybe Cain probably can't finish him.

same thing happened in the couture/sylvia, hardy/swick and falcao/harris fights.

Weidman needs the Sonnen gameplan if he's going to have a chance which is rush in fearlessly spamming takedowns and hope not to get KO'd

I expect him to try and set up takedowns with strikes and Anderson will finish him in either r1 or r2 when he connects, although Weidman will win most rounds that don end in a finish

im betting a insane amount on anderson silva -250 max bet......it is a 5 digit wager...

Unless that amount is insignificant to you this is a dangerous fight to choose, styles make fights and this is still striker vs grappler. There will be much better value bets to make over the year for a huge bet. I'd look for a riddle vs mills type fight where grappler has a great chin and the striker 1 dimensional at evens.

Good luck if you go for it (even though I'll have wiedman, as the units I'll have on will be irrelevant to me)

Just wondering why people have money on Weidman at the moment. All late money will be dumped on silva, why not wait until right before the fight starts (like when silva is walking out) to place your bets?

Apparently every pro fighter is picking Weidman. I'm gonna stay away from the fight. Cruz has an interesting analysis about Weidman's use of single leg take downs and not doubles, it's gonna give Silva more trouble. Article is on yahoo.

Safest bet seems to be Edgar.

That's when some sharp money's gonna come in on Weidman though I think. I'm thinking more wait til fight day.

I just felt +230 was where I wanted to be and secured it. Hoping for 250+ after weighing for another couple of units and prop.

i just like silva its a small percentage of my bankroll.....just hope it hits....

i want more on silva lol but books got max wagers on ufc total b.s

Weidman now down to -206 on Pin and as low as -170 on other sites. Pretty happy with the +230 now

Interesting that money is coming on Weidman. I still expect a final day Anderson surge, so may add a bunch more on Anderson if I can get -190 or whatever a couple days before

Looks like Munoz has taken this fight really seriously, here are his before and after camp pics. Staying clear of this fight now