MMA Thread - Page 523 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Sports and Games Sports Betting

MMA Thread

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 523 of 2165

First

23 323 423 473 503 513 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 533 543 573 623 723 1023 1523

Last

Page 523 of 2165

First

23 323 423 473 503 513 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 533 543 573 623 723 1023 1523

Last

06-16-2013 , 11:10 AM

#13051

sterfry9

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 5,674

do any of you guys do bets against fellow 2p2ers for the ufc fights?

Quote

06-16-2013 , 07:57 PM

#13052

rorrrr

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 2,481

Why wasn't the main event 5 rounds?

Quote

06-16-2013 , 08:04 PM

#13053

Kirbynator

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 52,004

it wasnt meant to be the main event, so they probly had in their contract that it was 3 rounder

Quote

06-16-2013 , 11:19 PM

#13054

Chris M

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 580

Placing 0.5u on Rory/Ellenberger over 2.5r -115.

I have no clue which direction this line will move in the next few weeks, or on fight week, any thoughts? If it gets better I'll make it a full unit.

Quote

06-16-2013 , 11:24 PM

#13055

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

I think it will get better closer to fight week.. When people think rory they think of some crazy killer, and many forget that he really hasn't finished to many guys, and Ellenburger is a straight killer that has proven the power in his hands.

May bet your side if it hits +100ish, even though I am also thinking of betting Jake via KO, so I dunno.

Quote

06-16-2013 , 11:30 PM

#13056

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

I am super excited about this hodger Gracie dec line.. Think for sure bookmakers are going to mess it up.

Hodger should easily outgrapple kenedy. however kenedy survived 5rounds with jacare, and has shown some great bjj of his own. And while hodger has the skills to submit anyone in the ufc, if this line opens at +500+ which I think it may, there is extraordinary value to be made.

Quote

06-17-2013 , 12:30 AM

#13057

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

May bet your side if it hits +100ish, even though I am also thinking of betting Jake via KO, so I dunno.

Probably gonna split my between this and Ellenberger KO

Quote

06-17-2013 , 01:21 AM

#13058

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

If Gracie decision is near +500 would be a great bet!

Love Ellenberger at + money, think I'll stick to an outright bet rather than a prop though.

Quote

06-17-2013 , 01:35 AM

#13059

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Why not just bet Kennedy? Isn't he going to cruise here?

Quote

06-17-2013 , 01:45 AM

#13060

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

Why not just bet Kennedy? Isn't he going to cruise here?

Really? (genuinely not sure if you're joking)

Quote

06-17-2013 , 09:07 AM

#13061

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

Why not just bet Kennedy? Isn't he going to cruise here?

He is going to get completely out grappled in my opinion, just a matter if Gracie gets the sub or dec... And I think books are going to screw those 2 up (giving sub no value, and dec alot of value)

Quote

06-17-2013 , 03:26 PM

#13062

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

How do you figure he's going to get a takedown? Kennedy should be able to stay on his feet, and he may not have power but he has WAY better striking than Gracie.

Kennedy all day here IMO.

Quote

06-17-2013 , 04:10 PM

#13063

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

I'd expect gracie to just get close and pull guard, he's sub'd bigger stronger wrestlers in his career (Waterman, Randelman)

He is also huge for MW 6'4 vs Kennedys 5''11 so Kennedy will have to get in close for the strikes.

Feels like a sacrifice to push Gracie up the rankings for a very saleable Silva fight in the future

Quote

06-17-2013 , 05:59 PM

#13064

anteatereater

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,977

early line out for cain/jds 3:

cain -215
jds +175

UFC 166: VELASQUEZ VS. DOS SANTOS III October 19th
http://bestfightodds.com/

Quote

06-17-2013 , 06:17 PM

#13065

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by elliot10181

lol Tim Kennedy is MILES better as a fighter and a grappler than those dudes.

Quote

06-17-2013 , 06:24 PM

#13066

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

May be better as a fighter but he's a worse and weaker wrestler than Randleman and Waterman.

Once it hits the ground Gracie is a much higher level so comparing their sub games is irrelevant.

Quote

06-17-2013 , 06:42 PM

#13067

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

You don't need to be a wizard to not get subbed right away. As long as Kennedy doesn't spend an extended period of time on his back, he should be fine. If he's anywhere near even money, I love Kennedy here.

Quote

06-17-2013 , 06:55 PM

#13068

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

To an extent I see it the same way I like Gracie by decision if near the +500 mentioned.

Gracie will move enough on the ground to stop the stand up, doubt he'll get the sub but pretty sure he can keep dominant position which should secure the rounds.

Quote

06-17-2013 , 08:32 PM

#13069

Chris M

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 580

Adding:
Edgar ITD +120 1u
Oliveira by sub +975 0.103u to win 1u
Jones/Gust under 2.5r -130 6.5u to win 5u

Think the under for the Jones fight is way off imo. All these at 5d.

Quote

06-17-2013 , 08:41 PM

#13070

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

But when facing someone at the level of Gracie, one mistake on the ground can cost you the fight.

Quote

06-17-2013 , 08:48 PM

#13071

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

This ain't ADCC ya'll. The 5 guys Gracie has subbed in MMA have 24 sub losses between them. Kennedy has never even been in danger of being subbed IIRC despite facing some notable grapplers like Jacare and Jason Miller.

Quote

06-17-2013 , 08:51 PM

#13072

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by just_mo

This ain't ADCC ya'll Kennedy has never even been in danger of being subbed IIRC despite facing some notable grapplers like Jacare and Jason Miller.

And he lost to both those guys in the way I feel he will lose to Gracie (by decision...)

Quote

06-17-2013 , 10:48 PM

#13073

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Jacare just outboxed him. Don't think that ever hit the ground. If this fight goes that way, Kennedy all the way probably, though Gracie's jab is reasonable.

Quote

06-18-2013 , 12:14 AM

#13074

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

My thinking on the standup was that Kennedy is unlikely to use kicks due to risk of takedown and Roger would be able to use his reach advantage on the jab if they fought in punching range.