A weight cut drained Lutter dominated him on the ground in first mounted etc, and got loose in the second

Sonnen Had top position for 4 rounds and has terrible sub defence (TRT did play a part in this though)

Henderson dominated him on the ground in the first, choke came after he was stunned standing (no one is questioning Silvas stand up dominance)

Maia is not a world class wrestler and couldn't show his groundwork, this has no relevance to Silvas sub-game/ground defence. It's only now Maias in the correct weight class we are seeing his true potential.

I know you guys have money on Silva but be realistic about where his real advantages are. None of these guys have near the credentials of Weidman if you take both his wrestling and sub game together as a package.

If you compete you'll know there's a big difference between a black belt and a truly elite competitor. Weidman has shown himself to be truly elite not only in grappling competitions but also his subs in the UFC. Once you reach the top levels it is natural talent rather than just length of time holding the belt that makes the difference.

Look at Nog, Werdum, I feel it will look very similar if Weidman gets him to the ground. Silva has shown weakness from his back and limited sweeps in his fights.

Silva should catch him standing on the way in but if he doesn't don't be surprised to see weidman completely dominate on the ground.

Well I don't compete at that level nor am I blackbelt, but I do know a share of brownbelts that are clearly more talented than some blackbelts, yet that experience can often take the edge anyways.

In this case, Anderson certainty has the experience, and I'm not yet convinced Weidman is a more talented ju jitsu fighter.

I do think his wrestling will come into play, I do think silva will be on his back(possibly more than once) however I don't think Weidman wins by submission or GnP anywhere more than 5% of the time(combined).. Which means for 5 rounds silva will have a chance to KO him..and considering that Weidman docent just bulldoze you in the way Chael does, Weidman may actually try to stand with silva for 30sec-1min every round.

Top that with the fact this is his first big fight, first 5 rounder, and he has never been taken into deep water.. Silva may be able to sub him in the later rounds.. ESP if Weidman gets overwhelmed on the feet and takes a sloppy shot that leaves silva ontop

Time will tell, I think I've bored everyone enough with my breakdown on Weidman.

Gl with your bet

yoyobo and Ebutdrool should be listening to elliott ITT regarding Weidman's grappling credentials. You guys are sounding pretty clueless on this topic tbh (Henderson? really? first off he has been subbed before and second, Silva took top position in a scramble on a guy who is clueless off his back, how in the world is that relevant?), and he is bringing a lot of relevant and true info to the table that somehow isn't getting through to you as you insist Silva has the superior BJJ.

Lol not boring, and gl with yours as well

I'm listening to everything that's being said but I'm just giving you my thought process. You guys are saying be careful about putting too much on him and I'm saying here is my reason as to why I feel comfortable with my bet. All this stuff on Weidman is interesting for sure but in no way did I say Silva had superior BJJ. I never said Silva will win by submission, what I was trying to show was that while you lot are saying how Weidman has an insane ground game, I'm saying that Silva can handle that and then where does that leave Weidman?

I actually like being proven wrong because then it means I need to improve and perhaps I am sounding clueless but this is why I post in here. To me the actual match isn't as fun as actually dissecting all the variables that go into it. And that's why we're here debating it aren't we?

Ebutdrool no worries, always interesting to hear the thought process.

The point that's of most interest to me is the 13 subs in a high level grappling comp. Typically subs are rare when two elite sub fighters compete (just this weekend at the Metamoris show in Cali there was only one sub on the whole card). So when a fighter enters a comp and finishes literally everyone it demonstrates an incredible level of sub game. It also stands out to me the Maia in their fight didn't want it on the mat (even though Weidman took it on only 10 days notice).

Silvas main defence off his back has been the triangle and that will likely be no threat to Weidman who is used to dealing with more specialist and creative sub fighters in the ADCC. Weidman is also a wrestler so his top game and posture will be excellent, as will his cardio in grappling situations.

Silva has never faced a fighter with both of these qualities, and it's also likely he is/or was dealing with some form of rib injury.

Sorry to go off again but I thought it might help explain why I feel Weidman offers a completely different threat on the ground as compared with a typical UFC Black Belt.

Sean peirson opened -165, think there is definitely some value there. Stout also -245, which I'm considering for a small bet (may just parlay him with someone instead)

Really interested to see how this yeves Jabouin line opens though.

EDIT: nvm I'm blind, it is at -350, which isn't quite what I was hoping for . Maybe the line will get a little better, cause fans will remember Dustin from TUF.

My main point was elliott's bringing all these salient points and you guys are just like... "nah, Silva bro. He beat Henderson and Lutter yo!"

It's just -_-

I'm not convinced Weidman has what it takes to not get punched in the face. I expect him to win over 50% of the rounds but I don't see him winning five rounds in a row, and the round he loses will end with him unconscious. That's why i'm betting on Anderson. He just finishes Weidman too often not to at -2xx because it's Anderson Silva and he has the BJJ to not be submitted and five rounds that start standing to knock Weidman out with the outside shot of a sweep/triangle/scramble back to feet each time he gets taken down.

If Weidman telegraphs five shots on Silva, i'd be willing to bet Silva knocks him out coming in at least once most of the time and if he stands and trades to set up that shot it gives Silva more time to land on him standing.

But who else can I compare Weidman to that Silva has faced?

Just pointing out to you that if Silva does get taken to the ground then he's still capable of defending himself.

And Elliot, I know you're saying Siva has never faced someone who can pose as strong a threat as Weidman on the ground but they said the same about Vitor standing up, they said the same about Sonnen's wrestling in their rematch and they said the same about moving up to fight Griffin.

Also, completely unrelated, considering 1u on Barry.

Are we forgetting Sonnen took Silva down in the first round of their rematch and dominated the entire round?

Ye he got a takedown stuffed and got clipped in the second but does that mean Sonnens wrestling does not spell trouble for Silva?
Seems weird.

Silva was a relatively large favorite vs. Sonnen and Belfort. Also vs. Griffin. The fact that "they said" this or that doesn't mean anything as they didn't put enough money to move the line.

I just don't see Silvia as impervious to being finished in the rounds Weidman wins.

Silva has never been on the ground with a sub threat of this level, and he also showed he can be controlled and GNP'd for substantial portions of a fight. In the same situation Weidmans GNP would cause a stoppage where Sonnen wasn't able to.

Again Silva should finish him standing and is the favourite, however I'd rather have 1U at over +450 on a Weidman ITD than 9U on silva (for the same return) and be praying the rib injury isn't serious and that my bankroll isn't effected.

I believe there are better spots for such large bets.

There is no direct comparison to Weidman, that is my point and you have no idea if Silva can defend himself against a Sub guy of this level with powerful GNP. If anything we have evidence that if Silva ends up on his back against a wrestler he's staying there till the end of the round.


Silva was always going to out strike Vitor (he's by far the best in the world) there was a chance at a lucky punch but silva wins that fight easily over 70% of the time.

Sonnens wresting was a huge threat, he owned round 1, just because a fighter loses doesn't mean their skills aren't a threat.

No one thought Griffin was going to win....

i was arguing that the Weidman ITD line was the worst line there was. as i think silva is to good off of his back to lose to a sub or via GnP, i was never discrediting his points, just giving the counter arguments onto why Weidman does not have what it takes to get the finish.

which if silva's record doesn't show this (which i think it does) Weidman has already gone to dec 3 times in his career, 2 of them to much lesser ground fighters than silva.

Each time he has gone to decision he took the fight on short notice, and they were 3 rather than 5 rounds. The extra 10minutes makes a finish more likely for both guys.

He won though didn't he?

(I know that is such a douchey reply but he did enough to win the fight and I think he will do enough to beat Weidman as well)

This is completely irrelevant when looking for information to make betting decisions.

MMA is high variance, to make a profit we are looking at individual strengths and weaknesses and looking for lines where we feel the bookies have it wrong. (Recent example for me was going heavy on Thiago at +150 as I felt Cava was overvalued considering the opposition he had faced and the positive drugs test).

Sonnen, and Lutter and Henderson all showed a good wrestler can keep Silva on his back for a round. This means Sonnens wrestling was a threat in Sonnen Silva 1 and 2. Look at fighter strengths/weaknesses like getting your money in good in poker it doesn't mean you will win it just makes it more likely (and potentially profitable when utilising the value in the odds)

Now if you were to design a fighter that could exploit Silva's weaknesses what would he look like? My guess would be a powerful All American wrestler, with dangerous GNP, a world class sub game, with good cardio and no sign of having a weak chin......

hmmmm now do I want to bet the house on Silva here or should I take a small prop and just enjoy the fight

Silva wins I lose 1U nevermind, Weidman wins I make a strong profit and the big risk you took (because it's silva) is suddenly bankroll changing.

Serious question here. How long do we expect Weidman to stand with silva before shooting for doubles?

Sonnens strategy worked so well partly due to him just bulldozing through for those doubles, with no real setups. Silva isn't really a fighter to give you to many chances to change levels and duck a punch.. And he is to good of a counter puncher to allow you to throw alot of volume in order to set it up.

Weidman strikes me as a guy with alot of confidence in all aspects of his game which may lead him to make a somewhat improper game plan, if he over estimates his striking game. (he Is coming off of a pretty devastating TKO that he set up on the feet)

so do you think he will attempt to stand with silva for a bit each round in order to set it up (which I feel he will), or do you expect him to just rush in and shoot?

I think that alone will tremendously increase/decrease the value of each fighter.

I thought it was pretty important? Shows that Silva can hold his own on the ground.

This I agree with (not that I haven't agreed with several of your points before hand).

The fact that he won isn't nearly as important as the weakness he showed.

Yep. He was only able to recover against Lutter after a sloppy armbar attempt. He was completely inert against Henderson and Sonnen. This could be a major problem. And ya'll actin like Anderson's never been finished before.

I'm sure you recognise this is just a description of Weidman, you agree he offers potentially the most dangerous threat to Silva but you are confident Silva won't lose?

btw when me and just_mo are in agreement it says something

some new lines / props out now~

That was a description of Weidman? Didn't realise

He could be the most dangerous threat to Silva but I still don't see it happening.

As from now I'm not commenting on this topic again until the fight is over because I think we've said all we can defending our views and we aren't budging. I am also willing to write an apology letter for not listening to you guys and teaching me a lesson if Silva is defeated!