MMA Thread - Page 513 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

a lot of lines out now...

- partial u for jordan by sub +1345... greg jackson will tell him to take barry down ^^
- nelson in R1 +160 (I think he finished all but one of ufc his wins in R1)
- partial u on Shields by Sub +975

And tempted by Rashad '50 takedowns' Evans decision line... lol

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06-10-2013 , 04:03 PM

#12802

Calipso

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 115

Anyone betting the house on Silva @ -300 over Weidman?

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06-10-2013 , 04:10 PM

#12803

aim

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 438

http://bestfightodds.com/ <-- if you bet your house you might as well take the -254?

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06-10-2013 , 04:43 PM

#12804

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by Calipso

Anyone betting the house on Silva @ -300 over Weidman?

I have a very large amount on silva from when the line opened... The closer we get the scarier it gets though... All these people on the Weidman hype train have me a bit scared lol.

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06-10-2013 , 05:07 PM

#12805

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by aim

Great long shot bets there, pretty surprised shields by sub that high!

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06-10-2013 , 05:39 PM

#12806

aim

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 438

Quote:

Originally Posted by elliot10181

Great long shot bets there, pretty surprised shields by sub that high!

Haha yes I also have Barry ITD at +145 from earlier... that's the most likely scenario I reckon... And would've taken Woodly by T/KO if it would've been juicier, but not really tempting at current odds. Maybe it will change before the fight?

And @ yoyobo: I got weidman @ +555 ITD for a unit lol... probably won't bet anymore on this fight tho... maybeif the lines move significantly I guess

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06-10-2013 , 06:20 PM

#12807

Chris M

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 580

Adding 1.55u to win 1u Shields/Woodley goes distance -155.

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06-10-2013 , 06:44 PM

#12808

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

love that shields sub line is that still available

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06-10-2013 , 06:46 PM

#12809

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

just looked and shields sub is 600 and shields itd is 780 lol 5d fails

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06-10-2013 , 07:04 PM

#12810

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Quote:

Originally Posted by elliot10181

Shields woodley u2.5 is a bad bet in my eyes, they are two durable lay and pray fighters both really needing the win (so won't take the risks). I'll be taking the O2.5 in that fight for 2U

Other bets all look good

Yeah this over is very likely IMO

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06-10-2013 , 07:05 PM

#12811

aim

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 438

haha yes same with the u2.5 / not going distance prop... you have to make sure to check both out before placing a bet... ;-)

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06-10-2013 , 10:22 PM

#12812

EbutDrool

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 496

Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

I have a very large amount on silva from when the line opened... The closer we get the scarier it gets though... All these people on the Weidman hype train have me a bit scared lol.

I have no worries whatsoever still. I remember everyone (ok, not everyone but you know what I mean) jumping on the Sonnen bandwagon in his Silva rematch and look what happened.

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06-10-2013 , 10:44 PM

#12813

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

^ I agree, also with mia and especially Vitor.. However I will fell alot better when it is over with

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06-10-2013 , 11:23 PM

#12814

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

I still feel this is his biggest test so far and the possibility of the injury rumours being true remove any value in betting silva at these levels.

I'll be taking the Wieldman ITD bet aim mentioned for 1U as feel that offers good value at +555 and it'll make the fight more fun, other than that steering clear of this fight as safer value elsewhere.

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06-11-2013 , 12:37 AM

#12815

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

If I was forced to bet on Weidman I think the dec line would be best bet.

Silva's got some really good defensive jitz, don't see a finish via GnP. On the feet there Is very little chance of a KO.. And silva has better subs/sub defense than Weidman... His only real Path to victory is the Chael sonnen gameplan. Only reason he is more of a threat is that he will work more on passing, then peppering him with little shots... Even then, not convinced he is more of a threat though.

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06-11-2013 , 12:59 AM

#12816

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Weidman got into the ADCC after one year of BJJ! and that was 4 years ago. His sub game is at least on par with Andersons. If Weidman does win though my best guess would be 3 or 4th round by GNP TKO or cut. He has tonnes more power than Sonnen and is better on the ground.

All a little irrelevant as that bet looks like it's gone, currently Weidman +470 ITD best option but I'll be following my new rules waiting till weighin before betting.

Silva should win but you have to bet a lot to win a little in a very dangerous fight for him.

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06-11-2013 , 02:21 AM

#12817

PartyGirlUK

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 23,530

Weidman was telling a story on the MMA Hour of how he went to some high level grappling match, tapped everyone, organiser asks him what belt he was and he says 'blue', and the organiser said that he's only allowed to promote him by one level, but that he would have promoted Weidman to black if he had answered brown. I believe this was the East Coast Grappler's Quest tournament where he subbed all 13 opponents. At this point Weidman had trained Jiu Jitsu for 3 months. If Anderson gets taken down 5 seconds in to the opening round in this one, it might get very interesting indeed.

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06-11-2013 , 03:58 AM

#12818

aim

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 438

wow thats a really cool story... do you know if that was gi or no gi?

and I think weidman will probably not go the pitter patter punch gsp/sonnen route. just looking at the way he took out munoz was nasty (not to mention that elbow). silvas steel coconut head probably will not get koed, but if he gets constantly hit the ref will have to stop it.

probably will leave it at tht 1 unit, but don't wanna lose a lot to win a little (did that with jones over sonnen and that toe really scared me ... after the fact lol)...

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06-11-2013 , 10:39 AM

#12819

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Scientific American has an article about how a fighter smiling at the other fighter during weigh-in photos correlates with them losing the fight. Apparently smiling is an unconscious sign of submission. Also, smiling did not predict that that fighter would lose fights in general, just that specific fight. It relates specifically to some power dynamic between the two fighters. Interesting stuff.

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06-11-2013 , 11:07 AM

#12820

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK

that's a pretty cool story, i heard about him going to the tournament and winning both weight classes with 13 submission finishes.. never heard about the promotion thing though.

however anderson silva earned his black belt in 2006, Weidman is still a brown belt.. i realize that dosen't prove everything, but with the amount of experience silva has under his belt, i think people are overestimating Weidmans ground ability.

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06-11-2013 , 12:43 PM

#12821

pokeranibal

enthusiast

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 95

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisV

Was thinking about this when Thiago Silva was smiling at Rafael Cavalcante on weigh ins.

Didnt work this time.

Quote

06-11-2013 , 12:54 PM

#12822

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

however anderson silva earned his black belt in 2006, Weidman is still a brown belt.. i realize that dosen't prove everything, but with the amount of experience silva has under his belt, i think people are overestimating Weidmans ground ability.

Weidman is pretty close to an olympic level wrestler with ADCC credentials, Silva has never competed to this level in BJJ let alone nogi (which is more applicable for MMA) to this standard.

Many BJJ schools have minimum years of training prior to awarding a blackbelt no matter how good you are, here's a breakdown of the ranking system http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brazili...ranking_system (2 years blue, 18 month purple, 1 year brown etc before each progression)

Many/most of those he fought in Grapplers quest would have been high level BB's and in ADCC it's the best of the best BB's in the world. His stellar results in high level competition are far more important the the colour of the belt around his waist

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06-11-2013 , 02:57 PM

#12823

anteatereater

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 1,977

Weidman also beat Phil Davis in wrestling in college (as well as Ryan Bader) at 197 pounds. Phil Davis eventually won the NCAAs. Weidman is smaller than those guys.

Here is that MMA Hour interview where he talks about it and spontaneous belt promotion thing that PartyGirlUK was talking about. That part of the conversation starts at about 12:00.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWDO67ZfhvQ

Last edited by anteatereater; 06-11-2013 at 03:08 PM.

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06-11-2013 , 02:57 PM

#12824

EbutDrool

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 496

He submitted Lutter, Henderson and Sonnen. Maia didn't get him to the ground once. You can even throw Leites into the equation if you want to get really nitty and gritty about it. End of discussion.

And what Weidman did to Munoz may have been nasty but I wouldn't class that as any evidence as to how that will translate into defeating Siva.

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06-11-2013 , 03:45 PM

#12825

yoyobo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 4,140

Quote:

Originally Posted by elliot10181

I understand how good weidmans jujitsu is, as someone who regularly competes in ju jitsu tournaments, I can only dream of having the natural talents he does.

I also understand how long you have to wait on normal occasions for your next belt.. Which makes you think that if silva has been training that much longer that he has had his black belt for 7 years, while weidman is still at his brownbelt? Also while Weidman had gone and grappled bigger names, silva trains with guys who are just about equal to them.

I just don't see weidmans jujitsu being a factor.. The only thing he has that is a threat is his wrestling

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