Shogun looked pretty good vs Gustafsson, just that Gustafsson is much younger, fresher and has the standup to match Shoguns, beside one of the biggest reasons Gustafsson won was because he got the takedowns which he setup up by striking with Shogun. Sonnen will be pretty outmatched on the feet easily and we'll see if he can take down Shogun that often. Shogun does have a pretty okey sprawl game so even if he gets taken down he should be able to get up. Beside, seems his last fights, Sonnen hasn't really shown the ability to take a lot of punishment. I'd cap it like at like -150-160 for Shogun.

that is just crazy! chael has takendown and mauled fighters with much better TDD and grappling skills than Shogun. sure Shogun has better standup, but how long do fighters actually stand with Chael? we also saw what happens in the anderson fight when you get to scared of the TD's when standing. Sure Chael has a tendency for bad Submission deffence, but it has obviously been something he has worked on, with only Sub losses in UFC being to one of the best grapplers in mma, and the p4p best in the world. also shogun hasn't sub'd anyone since 2006, hell his last fight to end in submission was when forest griffin beat him.

if chael opens at +anything it should be a snap bet

I think Sonnen should be the favorite, don't see -186 though. Shogun's guard game is trickier than people give him credit for I think.

Im expecting to see lots of money go on Sonnen from casual fans that should make the odds stray.

I like Shogun in this, he's training with Roach (investing in himself), as just mo said his guard game is good, is a natural LHW and most of all he didn't get absolutely murdered a few weeks ago so has had a full camp.

Taking Shogun at any +money

ill wait for weighins i guess. chael beats shogun unless shogun shows up in good shape but if he is in shape he can stop chael.

Precisely, he's a natural LHW, people keep forgetting Sonnens not. Doesn't matter if the fight is in Brazil or USA imo for Sonnen, though isn't that bad for him considering he's a TRT guy so he needs to be careful using those in elevated levels? Sonnen is the best wrestler Shogun will have faced, but I think Shoguns TDD isn't that bad and he will either sub or TKO Sonnen.

Pretty much this. Shoguns shape fluctates and so need to wait for weigh in to see his shape and also if there are any major injuries on any guys, or other good information like who they are training with.

Who knows, maybe Sonnen isn't training that much but knows he's at the end of his career and just wants big fights to earn $$. Unlike Sonnen, I can imagine Shogun actually needs the win so he can get some of that $$. Sonnen is basically set up so there's not much motivation for him left. While Shogun is training like hell, maybe Sonnen is out there doing media coverage and working and thus not committing 100% to training. And any guy that sleeps on Shogun will be surprised.

I agree with all ot this but don't think Sonnen is the best wrestler he has faced. Shoguns been in the ring before with Colman, Randelman, Henderson and prime Jackson I don't think Chael will be able to shock him.

Sonnet strikes me as one if those guys that pushes himself everyday, and has alot of pride. If he is fighting I expect him to be training his ass off and taking it seriously.. Not the kind of guy to show up unmotivated just for a pay check

Sonnen in last three fights got blasted by Jones, stopped by Silva and only just beat Bisping.

Last time he looked good against quality opposition was Silva 1 and that's also when he was on tonnes of test and it's likely Silva was suffering from an injury.

Shogun is natural LHW and has dealt with much bigger stronger wrestlers, so long as he isn't injured (yet again) he should win quite easily.

Bisping has top level TDD (much better that shogun) and sonnen was able to implement his game and take him down and manage to get the dec.

His next two fights were vs the 2 top p4p fighters in the world. He also didn't look bad at all vs silva there 2nd time around.. Hell he controlled silva and mounted him in round 1.

And he broke jones toe lol

I rate Shoguns TDD is at least equal to Bispings, remember Shogun has been defending takedowns vs LHW and HW fighters, Bisping just MW's.

Silva has poor takedown defence, he was on the floor with Lutter, Henderson and Sonnen both times, pretty much every decent wrestler he's faced has taken him down. Lutter is a low level fighter and that speaks volumes.

I know this is MMA math but Shogun beat Machida twice standing (in my mind). Henderson fight should have been a draw, with jones he lasted till 3rd Sonnen only 1 round.

This feels like the weight of evidence prior to the Vitor vs Bisping fight

Edit: talking myself into a big shogun bet

Sonnen's the best wrestler SHogun faced? Um what?

And Bisping's TDD is most definitely superior to Shogun's. Shogun's sweeps are very tricky though, plus he has those leglocks. Don't be surprised to see him get Sonnen with either.

Sonnen is definitely a superior mma wrestler to the version Shogun fought in their second fight.

Jon Jones > Sonnen as we saw.

Kevin Randleman?

Sonnen definitely better mmawrestler than current Hendo.

Bisping showed good tdd vs. Rashad Evans.
On the other hand... he got taken down by Mayhem.

I doubt Shogun will stuff takedowns. If not for Sonnens tendencies to lose in weird fashion i would put him as a decent favorite. Now he's only like -150 to -175 i would guess, and i think that line would have some value for sure.
Shoguns favorable matchups nowadays are definitely those willing to trade blows with him.

Yeah I don't think there's any doubt Shogun's hitting the mat with his back here. But once there, I think there's a decent chance he can get Sonnen off of him with sweeps and possibly even hit a sub. I mean it IS Sonnen we're talking about and Shogun doesn't get enough credit for his grappling IMO.

Jason High is +340 right now. I mean...I really like Erick Silva. But his TDD isn't the best in the world, I mean it's not awful or anything but...Jason High is a pretty good grappler. Seems like +340 is worth a look here.

Why do you say Bisping has better TDD than Shogun? He was taken down by Wanderlai and by Jason miller.

Well I definitely think Sonnen's the at least top 3 best wrestlers, if not the best one Shogun is facing p4p so to speak. Hendo is a wrestler but he hasn't been using his wrestling that much in any fight that I can remember, Coleman in his prime was a good wrestler but he was getting shutdown after a while and beside it was in the beginning so people didn't have the skills maybe. Randleman, he was athletic I remember, but he has worse wrestling credentials than Sonnen and concerning MMA wrestling, it's hard to say.

With all that said, Sonnen is definitely the best UFC wrestler Shogun will have faced (not counting Jones).

p4p doesn't matter at all since there is a set weight they will fight at.

I don't get it? Does that mean Okami has better TD's than GSP, because Okami has been taking down MWs where GSP only WWs?

You guys are making to big of a deal about size, it's not like Chael isn't cutting weight for this.

Bisping defends 64% of takedowns. Shogun defends 44%. Pretty gigantic difference.

It doesn't mean they're better but it is a significant factor and needs to be taken into account if a fighter is moving up/down in weight classes.

An example would be Maia's takedowns looking ok at MW and then looking like a grappling monster when he headed down and dismantled Fitch. Size matters a lot in fighting, that's why the weight classes are there.

Shogun fights A LOT better fighters than Bisping on average though.

I think Bispings TDD is overrated, but Chael fought really bad vs. him.

What's important here is if Shogun can stop the takedowns? Is anyone willing to make an argument for it?
We know that Shogun can sub him and potentially sweep him (though the latter is by far less likely) or possibly rock him and stop him on their feet.
Chael can't stop Shogun. Probably not even when he's gassed. Imo he can definitely win a decision though by making Shogun gas and "beating" on him for all rounds.

No he won't... certainly not all of them, but Sonnen will take a lot of damage on the way in and face a BJJ blackbelt used to dealing with stronger fighters when he gets him there.

And also A LOT bigger and stronger fighters

Shoguns game from his back... can someone point to fights where he has shown what he's capable of there? Somewhat fresh in the last 3-4 years. Not his pride days as i think we're talking about completely different levels of fighters. Pride Shogun would probably be a very clear #2 in todays division.