i jumped on it for a decent amount when you first mentioned it, think only way this doesn't make it to the final bell is by a shields submission (which i think is pretty rare) think the line is so off because Woodlys super fast KO, which is his only ufc fight, + shields getting KO'd vs ellenburger not to many fights back. this fight is just full of value with shields + that prop.

I remember when Shields said he was training close to 8 hours a day in the lead up to his GSP fight and I remember thinking how the hell can someone keep up that workload? I understand he could be exaggerating and maybe he wasn't even taking anything but still interesting to think about looking back on it.

Already got 2u on Evans, seeing as we've been discussing that his motivation will be the biggest variable in the fight ever since the fight was first announced. Putting a unit on Rua, unit on Cavalcante on the upcoming card and considering something ridiculous on Anderson Silva as the current odds I have on certain sites are just insane (-260?!)

Yeah i'm going to end up with double digit units on Anderson probably

Morning Report: Georges St-Pierre 'positively knows' a superfight won’t happen because Weidman will beat Anderson Silva

Article

I think the price on Minotauro might be getting a little out of hand...I mean +245 just seems a bit much, though Werdum certainly deserves to be the favorite.

However, I think there might be an even better value on this card...why is o2.5 rounds +120 in this fight? Nogueira is legendarily hard to finish. Between the two, 8 of their 12 losses are decisions, and they may come out looking to pace themselves a bit for a 5 rounder.

Apparently GSP had trained with Weidman so this is meaningless

Reza Madadi in custody for allegdely robbing an exclusive purse store with another man, got away with close to 150k. Dunno if he's guilty or not, but police seem to have evidence tying him to the crime place.

I'm worried about Nog's age and durability now, Werdum put a MT beating on Nelson (not sure Nog could take it these days) and showed decent power with the KO vs Russow. I also think he has a better BJJ game than Nog (although you're right it could easily be a stalemate on the ground).

Nog has so many miles on the clock and seems to be on a decline whilst Werdum is looking better in each fight. I see this as a gimme fight for Werdum putting another legend on his record to set up the title shot. He would never have finished 2006 Nog, but there's a decent chance he'll finish 2013 Nog.

Edit: ignore all of this if we see a TRT Nog at the weighins, wish they released the info!

His BJJ is superior but I don't think it's superior enough that he can just sub him with the quickness on the ground. On the feet, Nog is far superior to Russow and he's more mobile and less hittable than BC. I think it's reasonably likely that Nog gets finished at some point but I think there's a good chance it happens after 2.5 rounds if it happens at all. Like the plus money here.

Some new props just came out on 5d, adding:

1u Barry ITD +145
0.5u Jordan by decision +473
1u Shields by decision +265

For some reason I was thinking it was a 3 round fight, you're right over 2.5 pretty good as likely a stoppage in later rounds when he slows.

I'm on Shields dec for a unit as well

Yeah I don't put much stock in stuff like this I just thought the language he used was interesting.

Cat injured, Miesha in.



I'm sold

In b4 UFC is fixing to compete with WWE

Lol @ replacing injured #1 contender with fighter that just lost the #1 contender fight... Seems a but ridiculous.

On the other hand, it was a bull**** stoppage, a illegal knee, and Tate won the first 2 rounds... + I'm 10x more excited for this.

They need to just make mcmann/rousey asap though.

will they be topless and be in mud during this fight?

Why is everyone so big on Shields? He's against a solid wrestler with powerful hands....seems like a recipe for disaster.

Add in that Woodley is younger, stronger, more athletic.....seems weird to me. I think you guys all have it wrong.

Woodley haven't really shown that sick punching power before in his career (he did in his last fight). He's basically a blanket.

I'm not on Shields though but i can see the reasoning behind it.

Think this will be close. Shields has shown he can outgrapple more athletic guys many times before, in fact I would say Shields is rarely the more athletic guy. On the feet his jab jab jab style seems likely to match up well with Woodley's wild punching.

I think they are pretty closely matched overall so I love the plus money here.

In before Rousey armbars Brian Caraway at some point in the new TUF season

Seriously though this is the result they were hoping for and will lead to better ratings

Only reason I'm betting on Shield's is cause the price is reasonable and I've drank the Koolaid. He has been below average ever since entering UFC, has not looked good at all. I'm still on the hype train from years ago when he beat Dan, the overhyped train when UFC was promoting the GSP fight, plus he seems to be training all over the place with Blackzillians, Bisping and of course Gil & Diaz's. Got a lot of experience and sparred with high level guys so at this price, its OK sure here's my bet.

My brain couldn't process what it had just witnessed for a few seconds. Was so weird seeing an actual non moving GIF in the MMA forum to begin with but the fact that it was two women when all this thread is is a load of men discussing placing money on other men who are covered in sweat rolling around with each other.

I like girly girls, don't like aggressive women but my god Miesha Tate is fine.

UFC is already competing with WWE anyway, remember Lesnar's journey to the title? Diaz/GSP over instead of Hendricks? Sonnen/Jones and TUF? Not that I have a problem with any of those at all because it's what we want to see. I think the argument of UFC is NOTHING like WWE is flawed and people say it to keep themselves macho. They go about things the same, it's just ones promoting something real but entertaining, the other's promoting something fake but entertaining. And they try and promote exactly what we want - aggression, fighting, drama and those "OMG!" moments.

I'd rather watch Pat Barry fight than Jon Fitch/Francis Carmont/etc. any day of the week, but there are plenty of exciting grappling based fighters too, Maia and Struve are good examples imo. The UFC is about selling tickets and I don't fault them at all for giving Diaz a title shot as long as the deserving guys get one eventually it's fine. Hendricks will get his shot next.

Also with Fitch out of the UFC can we please start using Carmont as the go to example of boring fighter? His last few fights have just been... terrible. I hope they feed him to Bisping or something so I can finally see him get destroyed by someone he won't be able to take down.

On another note, I plan to put ~20u on Anderson against Weidman, any thoughts on whether I should wait or hit -260 to -265ish? The line's been fluctuating all over the place. Obviously waiting until fight week is a very bad idea as the casual money will be on Silva, but casual's dont usually bet until fight day or at least fight week. Silva has fluctuated from -274 to -259 since the Pinnacle price got released, i'm thinking i'll definitely lock up -250 if I can get it, -265 seems closer. Fairly sure Weidman +350 or so will be available on fight day so if I can get -250ish on Silva I might just bet a lot now and see how I feel on fight day whether I want to let it all ride or arb some off.

Also, added 2u Shields at +155 since price seems to be getting worse now.

5.2u on Anderson at -247

Will add more if it gets back to that price, my bet moved it to -251

Rumours of Silva rib injury but denied by both Dana White and Silva's camp and the source is apparently unreliable, and if there is an injury and he pulls out bet gets cancelled anyway so I figure it's fine since I assume that's what moved the line.

damn u guys sound so confident in Anderson.