Some of the upcoming title fights are evenly matched, like there's been some title fights where you know the contender isn't going to win, Griffin vs Anderson, Maia vs Anderson, Okami vs Anderson, BJ Penn vs Sanchez, BJ Penn vs Florian, Koscheck vs GSP, Hardy vs GSP, Aldo vs Faber, Shields vs GSP, Rampage vs Jones and so on.
But this time, we got serious contenders in Bendo and Reem. GSP will most likely win vs Condit or Diaz, Jones will destroy whoever they put infront of him now, Anderson Silva, if it's Mark Munoz, he's going to get picked apart and if it's Sonnen, I think he AS takes it too, his ribs where damaged last time and prevented him from fighting full capacity, but idk if it matters so much when it comes to TDD. Aldo will annihilate Korean Zombi or Hioti and Cruz is going to once again outpoint Faber.

Chael Sonnen at -260 looks too good, how can he lose against Munoz?

If he fails to take Munoz down.

Waiting for props for Friday. Gonna put small on Guilard by KO/TKO

I don't think this would really be bad for Sonnen.

munoz striking is horribly overrated. I think Sonnen wins this fight pretty much everywhere unless he gets taken down himself.
Munoz is at first glance an interesting opponent, but hes really just slightly worse at everything.

Munoz standup is not very very good, but it's good enough to take on Sonnen, who doesn't really have that good standup, I'd say it's worse than Munoz.

This. Sonnen's standup is def. superior to Munoz IMO. He may not have the clubbing power, but he outboxed Yushin Okami IIRC, and Munoz had nothing for Okami on the feet.

posted in EDF thread but seems some of you don't go there.

Thoughts on?

Rashad Evans (vs phil) -149
Belfort (vs wand) -250
Miesha tate (vs Ronda) +205

Belfort looks like printing money. I think hes possibly overrated, but how can current Wand survive this? Vs. bisping is one thing, but Belfort...

I know next to nothing about WMMA. Is this line mostly hype? Or is it that Tates strengths matchup poorly vs rousey?

Evans i really like, but thats because i probably underrate Phils wrestling for mma. Evans mma-wrestling is really good, and he'd have to get taken down to lose this one in my opinion.

/mma for dummies.

Rashad wins via using wrestling defensively + better at everything else

Belfort by better chin and Belfort blitz, although Wandy might get a lucky punch or two I think Belfort's chin can take it, ill wait on the line though Belfort hype will die down a bit as 142 win fades into distance I think Belfort might end up -210 or so rather than -250

Tate was in a close fight with Coenen which I thought Coenen was doing well in til she got subbed, Rousey has crushed opponents it depends on how good Rouseys opponents were really, I don't follow WMMA closely enough outside of having seen all of Cris Cyborg's fights. I'd stay away probably

Love all of those. Juiciest IMO is Belfort. I don't see a way he loses this. Better technical striker, better chin, Vand can't take punishment, Belfort has plenty of power.

Evans is just better than Davis everywhere except for wrestling credentials-wise. The big caveat here is that Davis is still so young in his MMA career. ELite prospects like him sometimes make big jumps between fights, so it's entirely possible he just comes out on a different level than we've seen.

Rousey vs Tate is because Tate is primarily a grappler and Rousey has an extremely strong sub game and should have excellent TDD from her judo career. I haven't actually seen Rousey fight though. Tate tho has strong wrestling and just subbed a champion who is a very good grappler in her own right. Seems ridiculous that she's +200.

Don't know anything about woman fighting so not gona comment. Belfort over wand any day of the week, only thing wand has going for him is he has better conditioning.
Rashad over Davis easily unless Davis has improved vastly in the standup department which I don't think he has, like he's definitiely improved each fight he has had, but it's not to that point that I think he outstrikes Rashad or any of the top strikers in lhw or even hang with them(like Etim did with Barboza for instance, even if Barboza outpointed him, Etim still hanged in there). I think he suffers the same problem as Lesnar in that department, like Lesnar is a very good wrestler and his standup has improved, but not improved so much that it's good enough to hang with any of the top strikers in hw. Davis doesn't posses that raw talent that Jones has for instance.

Just watched the match and you can hardly say he outboxed Okami. He won that fight due to being the aggressor and a big part of the times having Okami either on the floor or pressing him up against the wall. His stand up game is in no way ment to hurt you, just set up his takedowns and wear you out. He mostly just threw jabs, 1-2s and weak inside kicks without proper technique. Basically just overwhelming Okami.
With that said, I think Sonnen will win this if he can keep up 3 rounds, we saw Munoz against Maia where he lost the round that he allowed Maia to take the control and win the round with pressure. But I also think if he stands too much with Munoz and doesn't wear him out, Munoz will have a decent shot of clipping him badly.

Even if he was roughly even on the feet with Okami, that's still vastly better than Munoz did.

I like the favorites in all 3 of those fights, not touching Munoz/Sonnen.

Can you expand on why?

i agree with 99 percent of what you wrote but i like davis. His wrestling is good enough to get it to the ground and he his much better on the ground then evans. Of course if it stays standing to long davis will likely get ****ed up but at +100 or better i like davis.

What are you guys thoughts on Diaz Condit?

I think Diaz should be a HUGE favorite and I'm contemplating throwing a degen-sized bet on him. The line has moved from like -140 to -165 but I just don't see Condit standing much of a chance against Nick.

Condit is a great fighter with alot of power but Nick has recently fought hard hitting guys like Daley, Santos and BJ Penn. His chin is solid and his recovery after getting rocked might even be more impressive.

The only way I see him loosing is a "one in a million KO", early stoppage or some cut/DQ scenario - combined I see like less than 10% of that happening.

I think Nick will outpoint him on the feet and mess him up with his trademark high-volume punching with the many bodyshots. And even if Condit manages to get the momentum in the standup, Nick has sick subs off his back in a guard scenario.

The fact that it's a 5 round fight is obviously also in Nick's favor pretty much no matter who he's fighting (best cardio in MMA?).

I have made some money on the Diaz brothers recently against BJ Penn and Cowboy, both times obv. regretting not betting more - and this time I feel more confident than ever and might throw like 25% of my entire liferoll on it.

Just wanna say that I have never bet anything near that on anything before and never plan on doing it again.

Rashad can win simply on pace alone in this fight.

Not to mention hes gonna destroy him in the standup game and probably easily stuff most every shot.

Mike, because I dont feel like I can capably determine how the fight is gonna go. If Munoz can defend the takedowns I think hes a good bet, and if he cant, its probably gonna be a long night for him since I expect chael can control him decently and if he gets up he will be going back down and isnt subbing chael

I'll always be skeptical of Nicks chances against anyone who can wrestle at all. I just don't respect his takedown defense at all.
On the ground hes very dangerous of course.

I'll just stay away. Line looks good to me.

I don't see Sonnen being able to hold Munoz down. Can't hold down a wrestler that good, and he has shown great ability to use sitouts and other techniques to get up when taken down. I just see Sonnen keeping up the pressure and landing more strikes and takedowns to outpoint Munoz.

On Diaz/Condit I think the line is fair, may be some underdog value on Condit. I don't care how good your chin is, anyone can be finished by strikes if a fighter has good enough power/technique and Condit definitely does. I don't see either fighter getting a finish here though. I think this is pretty much a flip...

Really?

I don't see Condit going 5 rounds standing up with nick as I expect him to get outpaced/cardio'd. So if this is going to decession there has to be some LnP involved which I don't think is too likely either.

Dunno I might be a bit "high" on the Diaz succes lately, and underestimating Condit, really feel this will be a onesided fight - anyone else wanna chime in?

@just_mo Btw, it makes no sense that you think it's pretty much a coinflip while thinking the line is fair.

Last I saw Diaz was a slight fave like -130. Also, I said there may be a bit of value on Condit as a dog. But yeah the line is pretty accurate I'd say. And Condit's cardio is solid from what we've seen. Dude got beat on in bottom pos for 2.5 rounds which is VERY tiring and still had the energy to come back for a finish against Rory McDonald.

I love the Diaz brothers but in no way should Condit be taken lightly. This guy has shown improvement every fight, he is a monster. I made some nice $ on diaz vs bjpenn and nick looked very good but i think condit would have destroyed penn aswell. I am considering a play on condit but its very close. I highly advise against doing a super degen bet on this one. However, I would be more than willing to throw 20k on vitor vs wandy at -250.


Been staying up allnight watching lauzon/miller/guillard fights.

Ill def be looking to throw a prtty penny on lauzon vs pettis.

as for melvin/ jim, soooo close but i think i like melvin with the odds but dont be suprised if dis nig gets subbed.

also farm on ellenburger/ and i rly like kampmann vs alves at even odds...

Condit has very good conditioning himself, like I don't expect conditioning to be the decising factor in this fight like it was Diaz vs BJ penn, where the first round was evenly contested and arguably went to BJ Penn.
The question is who does the most damage first. Both of them have awesome striking, Condit the more versatile and kickboxing stance whilst Diaz has better boxing and probably throws more strikes per min than Condit, but doesn't include kicks or knee's in his standup game. I was really impressed with Diaz standup vs Paul Daley, considering Daley was in the top food chain in the striking department at welterweight division when he was in ufc. Could one say Condits standup is on the same level as Daley? I don't think it's much better if better at all at least.

What I do know is that this is easily going to be fight of the night, like it's 99% guaranteed, both guys have decent chins, both are mainly standup guys and willing to bang, and even if it goes on the ground, both of them have a very offensive game on top and below so there's not going to be any lay and pray. Only way it would not be fotn is if one of them scored a quick KO/TKO or miracle sub.