i agree that volume will be in kampmanns favor but i wonder how much of that volume will actually score on alves and whether that volume will be severely handicapped once he gets hit with a counter or two.

in the clinch i think kampmann could do well in theory but i dont see how he can get to that position and land repeatedly when alves can just shrug him off with the strength advantage

im completely baffled by the money that is coming in on kampmann

I noticed this too. Thought I'd jump on Alves when he was -140 but he's now down to -130.

ya wtf, I thought it was going to be the other way around. Maybe some insider information leaked out about alves?

I also expected money to come in on Alves, but took 1u on Kampmann at +110 when this didn't seem to be happening, and i feel pretty good about it.

They're both pretty big welterweights, and alves does have probably have the harder strikes, but kampmann is a tough kid with a decent chin, and as many in this thread have said will probably throw more volume. I'm not saying that alves doesn't have a good chance to win also, i just think that getting kampmann as a dog against a guy like Alves who has really not looked that impressive recently is probably not a horrible play.

Also like uncle creepy at the +265 i have him booked at. Feel like he's a relatively unknown fighter next to mighty mouse, and this always makes for wonky lines.

Sort of liked Philloppou before, but after seeing how much more cut and ready mcgee looked at the weigh in im kinda glad i didn't pull the trigger on that one.

GL everyone.

I dont think theres any "probably" about alves being the harder puncher. I think its pretty clear he is. Moreover, hes going to have the nastier kicks. I think thats one element that hasnt been mentioned. The fact that Kampmann doesnt pose a takedown threat means Alves is going to be able to throw more kicks with abandon which will cut into the volume difference.

I dont buy into the "alves" hasnt looked good recently arguement. If you look at quality of competition, Alves has fought much harder competition and it could be argued Kampmann has been even less impressive comparitively recently against weaker competition.

current record 7-4+4.18

kampman-110

might be a trolljob but Mike Dolce Diet tweeted a pic basically saying that Alves had rehydrated to 197lbs THREE HOURS after weigh ins.

Robbery? MM won 2nd round, Ian won round 3 by far. The first one, much harder to judge.

terrible to not give 10-8 for last round

Ya BS of the judges, esp considering they knew sudden death was there waiting

Lol, just lol.

fml alves

Alves' fight IQ may be single digits.

This is what I was thinking. It can be frustrating when you bet on the really dumb guys.

Charging into a guillotine is what guys do on TUF or back in UFC 3.

Ya bets went poorly on this fight mainly due to Alves, though I did get extremely lucky on the MM by dec bet. Feel horrible for McCall, felt he won 29-28. Idk if the third merited a 10-8, anxious to see FM numbers. Don't understand giving the first to Johnson though, I know he landed the big punch that wobbled MM a bit but he was outfought for most of the round and took some solid elbows on the ground.

Alves obv I feel I was on the right side of the bet, just unlucky that he made a disastrous decision. He was beating the **** out of Kampmann, all he needed to do was keep throwing strikes and the decision was his.

Philippou pretty much did was I expected.

Hecht disappointed me but meh.

By far the most disappointing was Cole Miller. Ruined my parlay in piss poor fashion. He looked putrid out there, refusing to throw strikes for some reason and just looking generally a bit slow. Losing to a dude who didn't win a fight on TUF is just...idk I wonder if the MMA game hasn't passed Miller by.

What a cluster****... It was a draw, they incorrectly recorded D'Amato's last rd 10-8 as a 10-9 making it a win for Johnson. Creepy robbed of sudden death : \

http://mmadecisions.com/decision.jsp?id=3330

And I guess Benevidez sits on the shelf now?

8-4+5.18

so what happens now? Will we see an immediate rematch? If so i like ian up to-140

It's clear McCall was the better fighter. Striking was very close, McCall had a sizable grappling edge.

yea i actually feel kinda bad for alves backers.

Bleh least I went small on Alves so only -1u

Almost bet McCall, Philippou, Hecht, Perosh and would have gone 2-1-1 there but decided not to bet any of the four in the end.

Made back my unit betting on DRG in the Korean SC2 final which I went to live today (im in Korea for appt-seoul atm)

Got a .2 and .3 of a unit on Tate and Thompson at tomorrows SF card just not a huge fan of any fights this week for betting. Might add more im not sure yet. KJ Noons looked really bad against Evangelista despite winning, but he's only lost to top guys so who knows. Tate is purely an odds play because Rousey is pretty untested vs top notch competition and any time you can get a champ at +269 it's probably worth a play in womens mma unless the challenger is cyborg

145 should have some value on some of the fights.

I'm on Rousey, Sayers, Kaufman, Jacare, Heun, Healy for small sweat/degen bets tonight.

With Condit's announcement that he'd prefer to wait for GSP and the fact that Ellenberger/Kampmann are both on win streaks AND have history with Condit, I think we see Ellenberger/Kampmann later this year to determine a possible title challenger.

Did any of the books void the winnings on Johnson for those who bet him? Since this got overturned right away, unlike a NC that happens months after.

Bovada refunded my loss on McCall.

Wow so vicious. Glad I bought into the hype, made a bit of monies tonight. Almost pulled the trigger on Misaki too, wish I would have obv.