wow, chael has been so close to a belt on three occasions.

wec 36: champion paulo filho misses weight, so it's not a title fight. chael dominates 30-27 on all cards, then the wec drops the 185-pound class.

ufc 117: wins 4 rounds vs spider then loses.

ufc 159: iffy stoppage with 27 seconds left in round 1. jones couldn't have come out for round 2.

not sure he could have made it those last 27 seconds though.

I had Bisping by "points" on sportsinteraction. This is the first time this happened there, unlike 5dimes where I knew how they graded, but they marked it a loss. However they just have "points" written, not "3 round decision" like 5dimes. Talking to someone right now and trying to get it changed, since he's telling me they graded the TKO,KO, DQ a winner lol... and that this is written in their boxing section (what does this have to do with mma?)

i bet 40% of my bankroll on jones -650. it still wasn't enough to make me pull against chael. the money was a nice consolation though.

i guess he'll be in novelty-fight mode the rest of his career. maybe he could fight wandy or griffin, franklin, shogun ... or vitor if he loses.

EDIT: pretty much any Brazilian in Brazil would sell. Maybe even Thiago Silva.

This is a ****ing joke, we are getting robbed blind.

I thought the same thing, then I saw an interview he did with Ariel a couple days ago where he said he admires fighters like Randy Couture and Dan Henderson who fought into their 40s, and he wants to do that too. He said he's never been injured, so health isn't an issue. He elaborated enough about it that I think he was telling the truth.

He just turned 36.

Yeah I got this from 5D live chat:

Manny: A wager on a fighter "Inside Distance" wins if the selected fighter wins by KO, TKO, DQ, submission, or technical decision.

No luck in getting sportsinteraction to change it through chat. They said someone will get back to me tomorrow, but unlike 5dimes they make no mention of 3rds, just points.

Vinny wondered the same thing:

One insane judge gave me a round... I lost all 3 fair and square...

— Vinny Magalhaes (@VinnyMMA) April 28, 2013

Real good card betting wise, pleased with the result.
Wish there wasn't the toe injury, was free rolling on both Chael and Jones but Chael's bet paid much higher obv. Kinda tilted that 20 more seconds would've been huge.

Jones is scary good, real impressive. I'm a huge Anderson fan and a small part of me now doesn't want the super fight to happen.

His ground and pound is so vicious, not wasted energy, most of his strikes are accurate and deadly.

This is what they currently have for boxing:


In the event that a boxing match is postponed, bets have 'action' as long as the match is rescheduled to take place within 30 days of the original fight date.

All bets on boxing have 'action' once the bell is sounded signifying the start of the opening round.

Where a boxer fails to answer the bell for the next round, his opponent will be deemed to have won the contest in the previous round. If for any reason a decision is awarded before the full number of rounds is completed, bets will be settled on the round in which the fight was stopped.

Bets that nominate 'to win on points' will only be deemed winners if the full number of rounds is completed.

In the event of a draw in a boxing match, in match betting where the draw was available as one of the options to bet on, bets on the draw are paid as wins while bets on either boxer lose, but if a draw was not available to bet on, then bets on either boxer are refunded.

For betting purposes where K.O. (knockout) is posted on the board as one of the options available to wager on in boxing, K.O., T.K.O. (technical knockout) and disqualification are regarded as K.O.

Last point clearly makes no mention of technical decision falling into that category.

+2.11u for the card, +12.81u YTD on posted picks.
Bisping's eye poke cost me an extra 2.41u, bah.

I'm running good lately, made 12.38u this card, which is my 3rd 10+u card in a row, and 4th in last 6 cards.

Eh. A win is a win, but it would have been a pretty crappy way to win the belt. Jones was soul crushing him the entire round, and he was doing it in close quarters/wrestling which is supposedly Sonnen's strong point.

Stoppage may have been early-ish (I think it's even money at best) but Sonnen really wasn't fighting back when the fight got called. Waiting 5-6 more seconds would have just been more of Sonnen's face smashed across the mat. No way in hell he takes that for 27 more seconds.

Only result of a Sonnen win would be immediate rematch + Jones retaking the title.

Question on my mind at the moment though is: Who fights Jon Jones next? Supposedly Sonnen got the shot because White was calling all the other contenders and they wouldn't fight Jones.

I'm definitely just a casual fan and no MMA expert, but I don't see anyone in the division that I'd put even close to even money on vs. Jones.

They better tell the next guy to grab Jones' toe and break it the **** off if he wants to win the fight.

It's rare there's any champ you bet against at even money, line wise, that's why they're the champ. The last challenger that was a fav over the champ was probably Jones over Shogun. Barao might be over Cruz depending what shape Cruz is in when he comes back, but it's pretty rare - before that maybe Machida vs Evans?

Answer to who gets Jones next is Machida/Gustafsson winner, assuming Jones is out for a few months with that injury/recovery time and they set up that fight in the meantime. Cormier shouldn't get an instant shot without a LHW fight first to see how he cuts the weight, that would be 3 title shots in a row at LHW without a recent fight in the division if that was the case. Machida and Gustafsson could use one more fight for the hype anyway, for Machida it's his last chance at the LHW belt or any belt until Anderson retires at least so he wants to be ready and could always use a longer winning streak since Jones has beaten him before (granted he looked more competitive than anyone else has and even won a round) and for Gustafsson he could use another top 5 win to be viewed as credible since his only top 5 win is a past his prime Shogun. Machida on a winning streak of Bader/Hendo/Gustafsson couldn't be denied another shot and if he loses he's done as a contender and can headline a Brazil card with the rubber match against Shogun plus whoever else comes along at LHW then go to MW when Anderson retires. For Gustafsson he's still young but to be viewed as credible he really needs a second win against the Evans/Machida/Hendo tier of fighters at LHW to go with the Shogun before he's viewed as credible despite the impressive run he's on.

Alternatively, if Anderson beats Weidman he could fight Jones next while Machida/Gustafsson duke it out for the shot after that, or if Anderson wins and becomes LHW champ, he could relinquish his MW belt, Machida could go to MW and Anderson would be reigning LHW champ although I have a feeling Anderson would just defend both belts like the badass he is then retire as undisputed greatest fighter of all time if he beat Jones and defends both titles after that. If Bisping gets another win he might finally get his shot at Anderson since you know everyone would buy it as a UK card just to see Bisping get smashed and then he could defend the LHW title against any combination of Gustafsson/Cormier/Jones rematch if it's close

Anyway, moving on to the next card

So far I have about 2.5u on Belfort at evens, plus Belfort, JDS and Cain to close out a small to win 4u parlay with the rest completed on today's card - obviously Belfort is the biggest sweat there.

At first glance I like

Belfort to TKO Rockhold
Jacare to submit Costa
RDA vs Dunham is interesting, i'm thinking maybe play Dunham if he gets towards +200?
How the hell does Camozzi keep getting winnable fights? I keep losing fading him but Natal sucks so I might stay away even though Camozzi clearly lost 2 rounds to Ring imo and is a terrible fighter
Hope Hacran Dias is a big dog to Lentz so I can bet him - will prob bet him at any price better than evens
Tibau will roflstomp Cholish, easy bet to -300
Alcantara should probably beat the no name brazilian guy who has never beaten anyone good, but will probably be unbackable
Maldonaldo should handle Hollett easily, bet to at least -150 and maybe more
Cariaso was beating the current number 1 contender in r3 until he got caught, hopefully he's a big dog to Formiga who is the 'higher ranked guy' and 'bigger name' but I think Cariaso is a fav here and I expect him to be at least +160 if not higher so may go big here
Don't care about any of the four guys in the remaining fights or know enough about them to pick a side

I expect to be on Cariaso, Maldonaldo, Tibau, Dias, Jacare and Belfort at the next card if the prices open where I expect they will or stay where they are currently with the others all as maybes although obviously it depends on the lines and where they open

Can't wait to back Nurmagomedov at 160 too, I love these two russians (Nurmagomedov and Khabilov) I kinda feel like they're both top 10 guys who just haven't been recognised enough yet

hmmm how often do you guys see Belfort win by decision here? I really like that > +100 for him, but might as well wait for the prop lines to come out, as I think if he wins he probably will win by T/KO > 75% of the time?

how do you guys rate Costas TDD? Jacares Wrestling is really quite good considering he is a BJJ guy. Same goes for his striking also - although Costa might have the better hands, I think the more diverse striking evens this out qute nicely. But also waiting for the prop lines here.

Other than that... I might have to watch some fights until the event.. but it's such a long time until then lol... are there some one fc or bellator cards inbetween?

As predicted, Jones manhandles Sonnen and wins by TKO as predicted.

Nelson shows why's he's top 10 and Kongo why he will never be top 10. I guess, no skill in the world can help you if your chin is shot, which is why Duane Ludwig was losing to guys he is better than.

Rustam Khabilov, what can I say, wtf is going on. He's ragdolling people like they weigh 5 kg's. I hope one time he just supplexes a guy so it can say: "KO: by supplex" and not TKO, supplex and punches. He should do a mark hunt and just walk away.

+3.08 for the event, only had bets on Davis and Nelson. After seeing the fights, seem like there was value on Bisping, Healy, Khalob.

RE: Machida/Evans betting odds:

Yeah, Machida was the favorite.

http://bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-...vs-machida-132

It's interesting to see (on that same card) that Frankie was a big dog to Sherk and Sonnen was a fairly big dog vs Dan Miller. And Pat Barry was -500 vs Tim Hague. Hague won by round 1 submission.

RE: Cariaso

I thought he beat Michael McDonald, but the judges gave it to MM via split decision. The media had it 3-2 for MM as well. In any case, he fought him super close.

Cariaso is pretty good.

Their own rules say a bet on a fighter by decision is graded as a win if they win a Technical Decision OR a decision after the fight has gone the distance. When I pointed it out, they stopped responding to e-mails.

The wording "wins by 3 round decision" doesn't necessitate that the fight goes the distance really. 3 rounds were started and 3 rounds were judged.

So close on my MMA variance argument and donk bet....

Crazy stuff happens in MMA and if Chael could have held on he would have won the fight, it would never have been allowed to continue.

Skill wise looks like Jones should dominate LHW until he is forced to move up, many more interesting fights at HW for him.

Jones is fierce and could very well become the new AS should he not move up to HW. I don't see a lot of people beating him atm at LHW. AS has the better timing and standup, but Jones has the wrestling to nullify a lot of peoples standup and dominate them that way, + he doesn't have any real apparent weakness. He has heart, which he showed in the Belfort fight and just now in Sonnen fight, I mean just look at his toe, wtf(I know adrenaline, still though), he doesn't seem to have a suspect chin, he has good standup, especially if he wears you down on the ground and then lets you stand up, he has awesome MMA wrestling, takes down guys like Sonnen, Bader etc with ease.

And $ sent.

Received from Sect7G

I think Costa/Jacare might look a bit like a higher level Caraway/Bedford with Jacare being Caraway in that their striking is close but one guy has grappling and the other doesn't