I'm not sure what to think of this fight TBH. Historically Kampmann has had problems when standing with fellow kickboxers who had bigger power than him (Daley, Marquardt both TKO him, though he did beat Condit albeit by SD). Alves would seem to fit that mold. At the same time, I can't help but think he has a speed/volume edge on Alves that he might be able to exploit. But Kampmann is one of my favorite fighters to watch so maybe that's just wishful thinking?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mwSZ8IhVVY

Seems he's doing good conditioning wise, and would have been one of the weaknesses he would have had against kampmann if he didn't come prepared. He seems pumped but I hope he's not taking Kampmann lightly. I can see Kampmann winning if he implements a good gameplan but I never really see him do that. Anyway, I think the line is going to get better and better for Kampmann and worse for Alves, so if you're going to bet Alves, do it now.

worst card for me ever.

decided not to hedge out of the rampage bet. bad idea. i was also on bendo, aki, bartimus, lauzon and parlays through kongo, okami, and kid. hell, the only correct bet i made was hedging out of my mitsuoka bet completely after the line shifted.

UFC on FX, im going all in on Uncle Creepy @ +300 range.

I have no idea on the australia card. Leaning McCall as such a huge dog other than that dont like anyone really waiting for rest of lines to be released.

Maybe a small bet on the Yasuhiro Uru****ani given the ridiculous odds on pinnacle, smth absurd like 7.3. I think he has to win like more than 13% or smth for it to be a +EV bet, and out of 100 fights, doesn't he win at least 13-14 fights? I'm also thinking McGee might be a good bet. He's got a good chin, awesome cardio and a wrestling based background. So he's going to have a clear advantage over Const in that department who lacks a good ground game and good conditioning. I mean his fight against Rivera really showed his bad conditioning and lacking groundgame, TDD etc. Though he does have powerful hands and good technique behind it, but McGee has a good chin and a way to grind out ugly decisions.

Hell ya. Gamble it up on almost anyone in the UFC at +500 or better. I call it the "Sokoudjou Rule" . . . after that twit snapped off Little Nog at like +1100!

Court McGee was getting busted up by hometown favorite Ryan Jensen for 2 rounds. Also had a very tough time with Dongi Yang. Think there might be some value on Costa Philippou here at + money.

Benavidez I mean he's gonna win. I've watched Uru once and he didn't impress me. Don't see Johnson losing either, though I've never seen McCall fight so I can't say much about that line. Just know Johnson looked really good in the UFC against much bigger dudes.

Any thoughts on Cormier/Barnett or Tate/Rousey? I feel like such a fish thinking this but man I just can't see Tate being this big a dog to Rousey. Once again, I haven't seen Rousey fight though and I understand she's an elite athlete who is just dominating people. I definitely think there's value on Cormier though, really liking him against Barnett. Super wrestler with boxing that looks like it's coming along really well against a guy who is pretty much just a submission grappler. Give me Cormier at + money all day there.

We haven't seen much from Rousey. All we know is she's an olympic level judoka and has been armbaring cans in 1min fights. We know nothing of her striking and Tate is her first real test. Still, Rousey's ground game looks absurdly good. If she can get Tate down she's in a world of trouble. If Tate can use her wrestling to keep it standing, she could expose Rousey's striking.

I guess it's just that Marloes Coenen has very good subs and Tate was able to avoid those and sub her instead.

Costa started at -164 and came up to +146 at one stage lot of movement there. I thought Costa was a can after the Rivera fight too but he impressed me against Hamman and McGee has never really impressed me, i'll take costa if he gets to +150 or so but otherwise prob leave it alone.

Don't mind Alves over Kampmann which sucks since im a Kampmann fan and dont like Alves much, although I think its a good matchup for Alves so probably small value at -127, wont bet him unless hes a dog though (and id prob take Kampmann if he got to +150 or so). Don't like either side that much at current price

No point on benavidez/urush, McCall is good from what I hear and while MM will be a beast at BW, if McCall is as good as I hear theres value in the +300 range - its basically never bad to take a good fighter at +300 or better ive found if he isnt fighting a GSP/Silva/Jones style champ.

I don't mind Barnett and Tate at the next SF card, Barnett should be good enough to beat Cormier and Cormier has been backed in so much Barnett is -132 now. Tate as such a huge dog just seems a bit off as champ, no women other than Cyborg should be that much of a favourite over the champ really. Rousey talks a big game and has backed it up so far but who knows from here.

I also quite like Lil'nog at +235, his striking looked excellent against Ortiz (who is past his prime but not as bad as everyone thinks imo) and Bader's been doing well since his close fight with lil'nog, granted Gustaffson's weakness is probably wrestlers but lil'nog has to have a chance here if he can get inside and he's too good a fighter to be a +235 dog to a guy barely ranked above him at LHW. Gun to my head I pick Gustaffson to win but there's underdog value there probably, i'd say true line is closer to -150/+150

Tempted to Sakara +330 vs Stann too, Stann is better at everything but in a mid level vs upper mid level striker vs striker bout, the +330 is tempting since he at least has a punchers chance (although ill leave it alone for now). Does anyone know if Sakara can wrestle or what his takedowns are like if he has any?

Aoki +167 vs Alvarez -200 thoughts anyone? Honestly I havent seen many of either of their fights, which is surprising in Aoki's case, i'll watch a few more.

Miguel Torres -127 seems like value vs Mike McDonald, Torres has fought better competition etc.

Surprised Kos is a small fav over Hendricks but I have a feeling it wont stay that way. I actually dont mind Kos here I feel like Hendricks is really good but he's getting overrated, although if Kos doesnt show up Hendricks will beat him.

Mir opening at +300 vs Velasquez is tempting too, Cain's gonna take Mir down, and Frank's gonna go for an arm or a kimura and he might just get it before he gets pounded out. Mir's too good to be +300 to anyone at HW really even though Velasquez wins over half the time. We don't know how Velasquez will react after being KO'd for the first time either...

Overall i'd say Barnett, Alves with small plays on McCall, Tate this weekend, thoughts anyone? I'm gonna wait and see where the odds settle though

How do you see Barnett beating Cormier though? I see tons of value on Cormier here, think he beats Barnett, who's never been much of a striker, up on the feet. Don't see Barnett getting this to the floor like...ever.

I'm just going to wait for props on Velasquez because he's going to KO Mir.

Probably will bet Alves, everyone seems to agree Alves is a righteous favorite.

I'm on Sakara. Sakara has solid TDD but not high level. He stuffed a few of Wiedman's takedowns before eventually getting taken down. He also is a brown belt I believe but I've never seen him be impressive off his back. Stann has been working on his wrestling a lot lately so I think they'd be close to even there.

This one is likely to be a standup war. I don't see Stann's striking being that superior to Sakara to justify this line. Stann's biggest advantage is his chin. Sakara's chin is a little suspect and probably won't hold up if Stann lands clean.

I think there's value on Sakara in the +300 range. He's always been underrated by the gambling public and I've made a play on him in his last 4 fights.

McCall has his fights up for free on his website www.unclecreepymma.com

I am heavily biased as I am an Uncle Creepy fan, but I think +300 is great value for the #1 flyweight in the world. MM is no joke, and is an elite level fighter, especially at this weight class, but I think there is value all the way down to +180ish range.

Haven't seen Ian fight, but I got to say that MM is a beast. He outstriked Cruz due to his speed and footmovement. Only reason Cruz won was bc he's a good gameplaner and wrestled his way to a decision when he realized he was getting outstriked. MM has everything a future champ should have, cardio, good footwork, technique and wrestling. The reason he was outwrestled if I remember correctly is because he was facing a much bigger and stronger foe in Cruz.

You guys know this fight isn't happening this card don't you?

notsureifserious.jpg

Well ldo, but people like to talk about some fights as soon as the line opens or in some cases even if it hasn't opened but the fight is going to happen. Also, both of them aren't in the UFC so I'm sure no one was thinking it was this card...

You know there's a strikeforce card this weekend, right?

Ya, there's 2 womans fighting init.

Oh the irony of being wrong when correcting someone (although technically there are 2 cards this week, it's on the strikeforce one, etc)

Re: Barnett and Cormier - Barnett is a legit top 5-7ish HW, has a 7 inch reach advantage standing which will negate any disadvantage he has striking (he's got some KOs standing), solid chin, good ground game. I just feel he's more well rounded than Cormier, and he's bigger. Cormier is a short HW with a 71 inch reach. Against someone as experienced as Barnett who has an extra 20 pounds and 7 inches of reach it's going to be hard for Cormier to win any way other than 3 rounds of get takedown, avoid sub or get inside to land a big shot standing. Barnett can win via reach standing, sub, KO, just feels like he has more ways to win and more experience. Granted I haven't seen many Cormier fights but his most impressive (basically only impressive) win is Bigfoot and for all we know that could have been a semi-fluke victory as we all know Bigfoot's very hittable.

Does Barnett have bad striking defense to the extent that he'll lose the stand up to someone he has a 7 inch reach advantage + height/weight advantage over? Remembering of course that if Barnett finds a way to get on top at any stage (granted less likely) that the fight should instantly be over.

I've just convinced myself actually i'm going to put a couple hundred on Barnett this weekend I think.

Vitor Belfort @-270 is among the easiest bets you can make in MMA

From what I've seen of Cormier in his last fight vs Silva, he put on a boxing clinic, he reminds me a little of Cain, like the work ethic of a wrestler who learns how to box really good. I'm just going to stay away from that fight though, I'll bet if either fighter is way of a underdog, but I don't think the odds are going to move too much in any way actually. I feel though Barnett is clearly the more experienced fighter, has been fighting a lot more famous names than Cormier. Howver from what I know Barnett is a ground guy and if he can't take Cormier down, which would be a fair assumption considering Cormiers wrestling credentials, then Cormier might outbox him. When it comes to the reach, bigger reach doesn't always mean you're going to outbox someone. Just look at MM when he faced Torres.
I think I'm just going to stay away from that fight, too many unknown variables for me to make a prediction.

If it was the old Silva fighting, yeah, but as of recently(well the Cung Lee fight, and bc he said after the fight), he's been way more conservative with his punches and doesn't go wild swinging. I think he definitely has an advantage when it comes to cardio, so if he somehow can hang in there past the first round, he might decision Vitor. But then again, Vitor is going to connect with at least a couple of punches in the first round like Cung Lee did and Vitors power >> Cung Lee's power.

Sighs.

Anyways. Yeah I also see big value on Belfort -270, think he should be like -400. He's still very relevant in the division and not far past his prime, still has very good power and Wand's chin is horrid these days.

Cormier is a much superior athlete to Barnett and a better boxer. That's going to be more than enough to negate a reach advantage. I've never bought into "experience" being much of a factor in sports, especially with an older guy like Cormier who has competed in big things before. Maybe for really green guys taking a huge step up. Give me talent/ability any day though.

Vitor Belfort = complete lock. Beating Cung Lee doesnt' mean he's back lol. Silva is completely washed up he's 10 percent to win. Also Daniel Cormier is gonna beat the fk out of that fat white boy.