It's hard to say what Condit should have done differently. He knows he's likely to get taken down a lot regardless of what he does to lose on points, which is why he's ok with throwing high risk strikes like flying knees...if he happens to catch Hendricks ducking for a takedown the fight's likely to be over.

I remember a post I read on BE fairly recently where they broke down the changes in Anderson Silva's style that turned him from a talented but flawed fighter into the GOAT. He used to have a more aggressive style but opponents were able to take him down a fair amount, but when he switched to a more counter-oriented style it helped him solve that. Problem with Condit using this approach is he doesn't have the punching power that Anderson has; most of his KO power comes from leg strikes.

Oh my. New matchup Elkins vs Mendes. This might open like Silva vs Bonnar.

Elkins wins one time out of ..... say 30?

Lol manny and guida out? Mendez can't get a serious opponent lol.

can we really talk about chris weidman i never watched one of his fights but he really hasnt fought anyone to great

Problem is, he's beat all top competition and there's no guy ranked higher than Weidman that he hasn't beat. So either he waits a lot of time for a person to emerge as a clear contender. But yeah, Weidmans record is nothing out of the ordinary

People are ducking this guy, I'm telling ya.

Elkins is a grinder and a tough SOB but man Mendes should just outclass him everywhere. Probably decision though.

He isn't Anderson Silva. He is in trouble. End of Discussion. In all seriousness though he has good wrestling, but so did Sonnen and the 2nd time when Anderson fought him, it wasn't even close to enough.

Would any of you take jon jones at -650 vs sonnen?

Nope, jones is going to have his hands full here, might go really small on sonnen actually.

Sonnen has the ability to takedown anyone, and take away there ability to be comfortable on the feet. If he lands a couple TD's early, jones may end up like Anderson in there first fight (maybe stuff a extra TD or 2) but he also has much worst jitz

So weird, perhaps it's just the Anderson fanboy in me. When he was scheduled to fight Sonnen 2. I was worried for him, saw Chael as a threat.

Now Jones vs Sonnen, I have no doubts that Jones will win. Not even a tiny bit do I think Chael can win. Maybe this is the Jones dominance factor. That said, I will still bet a lil bit on Chael just cause I don't like Jones. It's lighting money on fire though, still gonna do it. #spitebetting

Elkins is on a big win streak it's honestly fine matchmaking on results his win streak is longer than Mendes even. That said, they're in a totally different world as fighters, Mendes is going to make Elkins look like Cody McKenzie - obviously snap bet Mendes to -500, and -200 one time please

Weidman is a good fighter but only truly looked like a world beater against Munoz who is a borderline top 10 fighter.

I think Weidman has earned his shot, but he's not the man to dethrone Silva unless Silva has is suddenly past his prime which we have no evidence of being the case

No, just because he has a gameplan for victory (spam takedowns, get one, lay on Jones while punching him). I don't bet favs bigger than -400 or so unless the other guy has no real gameplan for victory (eg. people with no TDD like Diaz against GSP, strikers against Anderson Silva, etc.)

I may even put a half unit or something on Sonnen if I can get +700 or better just for the sweat because I want to see Jones lose and he did look vulnerable against Belfort at times.

Machida is probably the man to dethrone Jones if he isn't going to be a 5 year plus champion, if not then the next most likely guy is Chael, then probably someone who isn't even in the UFC yet. Gustafsson is good but matches up poorly with Jones, and I don't see anyone else threatening him at LHW unless Anderson moves up and wants a title shot or unless someone makes the cut from HW (either JDS or Cain being the most likely guys to beat him)

I'd like to see JDS drop to LHW and fight for the title if he loses the rubber match against Cain once he earns another shot, he walks around at 239 so he could probably make the cut fairly easily with a proper camp and some minor weight cutting

anthony johnson -125 vs andrei arlovski this has to be off right?

You like the Arlovski side or Johnson? Arlovski -115 seems like a solid bet even with his iffy chin, AJ won't have the size advantage he is used to and should get knocked out here a lot imo

I'll book Arlovski @ evens with you if it's the AJ side you like and we both save on vig for up to around 200-300 if you have references

I'd have capped this at more like Arlovski -160 or so I think

Really?

I see Sonnen have no chance at all in this fight, no way he's getting up close to Jones to get a takedown. Jones looks like a man against a little boy with everyone he's fought thus far.

I'll take this with you for $300. I owe you a bet, after all.

not even going to get close? sonnen has possibly the best wrestling in mma.. he will takedown jones.. the only question is if jones will be good enough to get back up/sub him.. or catch him on the feet at the beginning of a round.

i think jones is super confident the his wrestling background will keep him off of his back. if that is the case, when he gets put down one or 2 times, how do we know it won't be like sonnen/silva, where sonnen actually starts to win on the stand up cause jones is so worried about TD's.

obviously jones is and should be the favorite, but sonnen is the first opponent he is facing that jones does not beat everywhere the fight goes.. and is the only opponent (besides rampage somewhat) that will keep constant pressure on him.

Well Arlovski is +140 now and climbing, so I guess i'm going to just bet with a book... call it even since this time it's me passing :P

On that note have I missed something here? Rumble isn't huge for a HW, Arlovski has better striking and has only really lost to elite HWs plus Rogers and does have wins over Nelson, Sylvia etc.

I mean, Johnson probably has better wrestling but I don't know if he can eat a power shot from Arlovski if he lands one

Chael is the more decorated wrestler (arguably more than anyone in the UFC), but he is also the most oft submitted man competing in MMA today. Add, Jones is the most proficient submission artist, despite the fact that you don't think of sub's when you think of JJones.

Five rounds of pure submission grappling, wherein elbows to the dome are legal, I like Jones on the ground by a wide margin.

Any value in Brett Rogers -179 Bellator? Eric Prindle seems to be a terrible, terrible fighter. Or will the domestic abuse/arrest stuff have impacted his training too much?

How about Tyson Nam at +135, a win over Dantas is probably more impressive than a close win over Torres at this stage right?

Proof of Arlovski's power?:



Arlovski defeated Nelson via KO (punch) at 3:14 of round 2.

October 4, 2008

Prindle pulled out.

Arlovski (16-9) KOs Travis Fulton (247-48-10)

November 5, 2011

Fulton had only been TKO'd/KO'd 8 times in over 300 fights.

I'd say there's probably value on jones -650 over sonnen. This is going to be a laugher. Sonnen may be the more accomplished amateur wrestler but jones is bigger and had way more potential - had he followed thru on his wrestling career at the d1 level instead of turning to Mma I think there's a decent shot he would have surpassed what sonnen did. Additionally, sonnens best position seems to be te clinch when it comes to working for takedowns and we all know what jones des to people there.

I absolutely loved Johnson at opener vs arlovski. He should be able to land at some point and crack that chin. Inside the distance seems lockish here either way. Speaking of locks, does Aaron Simpson ever lose to josh burkman? -300 might be a steal here.