It all depends where the line is really.

I fee like the true line would be Shields -250 Akiyama +250 or so odds wise in % to win the fight? I expect Shields to be more of a fav than that though.

barboza vs dunham. thoughts on opening line?

I'm thinking Barboza as a -150? I could be completely wrong on this one. It's a sick fight though.

I feel sorry for Dunham, always up against top notch competition. He's a very good fighter overall, decent striking, decent grappling skills etc, but he's not excellent at any area. -150 is pretty optimistic, I see the line being more somewhere between -300 and -400. Whilst Barbozas TDD isn't the best, he did a pretty good job getting up vs Etim and I think we'll see a similar fight except Dunham being TKO'd/KO'ed much faster than Etim was.

yep -150 is most likely way off. I just can't find a good structure for my analysis on this fight, just know that i find it very intriguing.
Barboza looks like a beast but Dunham is significantly better than what hes faced so far.

I've only bet big once and that was when i bet 1400$ on carwin to beat lesnar. Usually I rarely bet more then a 100$ in total on any given UFC event

@Swoop, you are vastly underrating Pettis lol. Don't really see any of the top guys finishing him, nobody is going to be willing to stand with him. He is really athletic and just has such a slick overall MMA game that he could definitely be future champion. The guy just turned 25. Thought he pretty clearly deserved a 29-28 decision against Stephens as well. Lauzon is pretty much a beast in round 1 though lol so this fight could def get interesting.

On Dunham/Barboza, I don't really see the line opening THAT steep. Dunham is coming off a fight where he was -400 against a decent fighter, and two of Barboza's wins were extremely close decisions that could have gone either way.

The only close decision(the one which could have gone either way) was vs Pierson and Pierson is way more technical, more diverse and has faster striking than Dunham. I see Edson outclassing Dunham like when Dunham faced a much more athletic and better striker in Melvin Guillard. One of the reasons I see the odds being smth like -300 to -400 is bc of Barbozas last KO. The regular Joe isn't going to bet against someone who is 10-0 and just spinning wheel kick KO'ed someone.

But Barboza has a way more measured striking style than Guillard, who just overwhelmed Dunham with power and speed. That's not rly Barboza's MO, he looks to work leg kicks and pepper you with strikes from a distance mostly.

The point still remains, he's facing someone who is a faster, more technical/diverse striker than himself and who will keep the fight standing. Because I assume there is no reason to believe that Dunham is going to be able to take Barboza down continiously and grind out a decision that way. He is not a wrestler of that caliber with good enough athletisism/strength to be able to controll Barboza on the ground most of the fight. I think the first time Barboza faces a real challenge is when he is up against a strong and dominant wrestler type of fighter.

Dunham beat Sherk and the Guillard loss was a bit of a fluke/bad matchup

I'll be all over Dunham if he's better than +210 or so.

I'd take Barboza at up to -140ish though. True line somewhere between there i'd say. I expect the value to be on Dunham in this one though as I see Barboza opening at -280 or something. Ross Pearson did beat him arguably and Njokuani came close.

Am i though? Guida controlled him easily with wrestling and most of Pettis' wins were favourable matchups, or very close. His one excellent win is Bendo and that was his best and Bendo's worst fight ever and still 48-47. Pettis is top 10 but not top 5 imo

Sherk is a one dimensional fighter and a thing of the past pretty much. Pretty much anyone with a decent striking game and semi good TDD can win over Sherk.
If it's one thing we learned from that fight is that Dunham doesn't always follow gameplan and can be a kind of stubborn in fights. Saying something like his loss to Guillard was a fluke is pretty meh since then you can always say that when someone loses. I mean Guillard outstriked him and avoided the TDD's/get back up. That outcome happens at least 7 out of 10 times they fight imo. I'd say korean zombie KO'ing the canadian dude was a fluke, but not guillard over Dunham. You can also say Barboza beat Pearson arguably. It's not like he was robbed or anything.

I simply don't see where Dunham is better than Barboza, if you think he has a way of winning, do tell me.

He could outgrapple him. He showed a pretty nasty top game against Lentz and has showcased slick subs and good back control in the past. Nobody has put Barboza on his back yet.

@Swoop lol @ most of Pettis' wins being "favorable matchups." It's actually the opposite. Look at his four best wins: Castillo, Henderson, Roller, Stephens. Of those, Stephens is the only one who is primarily a striker and therefore a favorable matchup for Pettis. The others are primarily wrestlers.

You could be right there. Roller isnt very good though. Castillo is a solidish win, Bendo as i said is an amazing win but it was his best and bendo's worst performance ever and the stephens fight he arguably lost

I'm not saying he isnt good, he is definitely good, I just don't think he's the top 5 LW a lot of people think he is. He's 4-2 against UFC-level opposition with losses to Palaszewski and Guida. I just wouldnt be too shocked to see Lauzon sub him somehow or win 2 rounds maybe so im staying away

Whenever people ask about the loss to BP, Breen always says it was a horrible decision. So I wouldn't read too much into that. I don't know if he is a top 5 LW because LW is probably the toughest division. But what I am saying is that he has the potential to be a champion, so don't be surprised if he fulfills that potential.

We'll have to wait and see if he's top 5, I def think he has the potential but I think he has to face more higher ranked fighters first to make that claim, def has to face a top 5 ranked fighter and win. We have Edgar, Maynard, Bendo, Jim Miller, Melendez(even though he isn't in the UFC), guida etc before him who have fought greater fighters so we'll wait and see.

Some brutal lines. Okami -450 jesus, Kongo -300.

Played Rampage/Pettis parlay. Guess I'll wait on props...

Anyone think Bader might do the same he did to Nogueira or Rampage has too good TDD?

I tossed this question out there. I don't really see it happening except for maybe the first round, given Bader's conditioning issues.

Rampage loses to fighters in the standup when they overwhelm him or pick him apart from the distance, but Bader isn't that type of fighter really. He's pretty str8forward w his hands and reminds me a bit of Kosch in that department(not their style but rather they are conservative w their punches and focus too much on landing that one big punch, and not their wrestling since I consider Kosch a lot more explosive/faster) and his legkicks are just a laugh, mainly bc of his body type. Big overbody, small legs.
And I try to think, he's a good wrestler, but people take down Rampage with speed usually, not power.

Added bet on Fukuda -250. Not sure where else I'm seeing value here...

Dammit all to hell missed Lee +375 opening line because I was asleep

When is everyone going to learn that Kid Yamamoto sucks, badly.

Might wait for pinnacle lines now hope I can get him at +320 or something

even though I don't like Mizugaki much as a fighter I don't mind him at current odds, Bart's odds arent as good as I thought so small bet I guess and idk really most of the lines are around where I think the true odds are other than Lee and

I want to get on Vaughan Lee against Kid Yamamoto, Bodog +300 is currently best, anyone think it's worth opening an account there vs wait and see where the pinnacle line opens? I don't currently have a bodog acct, and I think this fight is a flip so +300 is very tempting (it opened +375 while i was asleep so sick I was on Darren ueyamawhateverhisnameis at +400ish last time kid fought too idk why hes always such a huge fav)

@just_mo, swiftx etc thoughts on lee?

Ya I threw down a bet on Uyenoyama too, he was like +350 or somethin sick. I will probably just stay away from Vaughn Lee though, someone on Twitter from Britain was saying he had followed Lee's whole career and he's terrible. Plus Kid might actually be motivated to like...train since this is do or die in front of his fans.

Think Hioki might just sub BP, his TDD ain't too good, I remember watching him sub a couple scrubs from his back.

I can spot you if you need, i have bodog account feelin to throw few hundy on Bart right now .