Quote:
Originally Posted by kingofcool
I guess he means Diaz is more popular. No idea if it's enough to influence line movements, probably not, but don't think hes hating.
This is what I mean, although I am hating on Diaz as well because he's my least favourite fighter (overrated, disrespectful and a whiny crybaby) and I find his fans more annoying and generally wrong about everything MMA related than any other fanbase as well (only slight offense intended to the Diaz fans out there)
I feel like a lot of Diaz fans will feel pissed because they thought Diaz won (which he didn't and it wasnt that close) and will therefore think Condit is overrated and will bet on Ellenberger, moving his line in slightly. That's what I think could happen anyway, i'm speculating.
On to 144 I liked the card for betting more when G-Sot was fighting Gomi (I was going to bet big on him as Gomi is basically washed up in my opinion, and G-Sot has gone from overrated to underrated after the loss to RDA)
I'm going to get on Bart Palaszewski pretty heavily if he's +200 or better, I think he could open as high as +280 even. I feel like Bart is underrated, I mean the guy KO'd Tyson Griffin and beat Anthony Pettis, and Hatsu Hioki just stole a decision from George Roop (who I had winning) and has spent the last few years mostly crushing cans. Hioki can win by decision due to reach and wrestling, but Bart has a lot of paths to victory as well. I feel like the true line might be close to evens but Hioki should open as a big favourite. If Hioki wins and gets Aldo next, I might make my first 10+ unit bet on Aldo even, there is no way Hioki will ever wear a belt in the UFC and that includes if he drops to BW in the future.
I'll get on Vaughan Lee if he's a decent dog to Kid Yamamoto - although I don't really rate Vaughan Lee at all, Kid Yamamoto is just terrible these days and he has a solid fanbase who will keep him a decent favourite when he doesn't really deserve to be -200 or better against anyone in his division in the UFC. Of course the odds could be totally off what i'm expecting, but this is speculation.
Akiyama/Shields has so many unknown factors but if Akiyama is +400 or something insane I might make a small play on him simply because i'm not sure where Shields head is at and Akiyama will have good TDD and in a 3 round fight he could win 2 rounds.
If Okami's -250 or better i'll take him over Boetsch, if the Kongo odds get to -220ish i'll get on him and if not i'll stay away and i'm not touching either side of Lauzon/Pettis or any of the other prelims most likely.
Got a unit on Frankie, will probably add another couple to retain because he always finds a way and Bendo will find it tough to take Frankie down and the only way he wins standing is by landing a big shot and finishing - I expect Frankie will outpoint him standing 49-46 or 48-47 or so.
I love the seven fight main card, it would be nice to see less numbered PPV cards given the TV deals being able to give us lots of smaller events and it would allow the UFC to stack each one with more fights like 144 is. With how long is it between 144 and 145 and 146 they could easily throw in a few more LHW fights on each card and really stack them, Ortiz/Griffin or Franklin as a comain for 145 and then add in Machida and Shogun vs 12-18 ranked guys (Mo Mousasi Maytushenko etc) on 146 (they both need a win before they can fight their rubber match late this year imo)
Rambling thoughts aside, I expect to be big on Edgar, Okami and Palaszewski at 144 (depending on odds of course on the latter two) with smaller plays on Kongo and Lee probably. Rampage too if he gets below -200. Shame about G-Sot I feel like he matched up well with Gomi.
Anyone else see value anywhere on 144 or agree/disagree with any of my picks?