it wasn't that 'big' but it was 2.5u and I only bet about 4u and change total this card, struve winning was enough for me to profit by itself.

Struve is underrated and could easily be a top 10 HW in 3 years if his chin holds up. Flash KO to Browne who he beats over half the time, Nelson is a bad matchup for him and his third loss is to JDS. 7-3 in the octagon now, Struve is legit and will crush once he gets a bit heavier and has to cut to 265 if he continues to work on his striking

+2.5u for the day but that includes a half unit basketball bet that won, +2.1u for the card here

Condit will finish him late if it's a 5 rounder. I'll definitely be betting Condit at -150 or better if Ellenberger gets a shot at the interim belt

LOOKED LIKE ellen broke his hand in the fight at one point,

Yeah I heard that too. Couldnt tell from the stands but someone on twitter was saying he wasn't clenching the right.

The only reason Struve could be a top 10 HW is cuz HW is so bad.

Anyone else see the Jones line is down to -500? If it keeps moving in his direction this could get MIGHTY juicy. -400, god?

Also, with how Ellenberger finished that Sanchez fight, I see Condit being -180 or worse against JE.

Really, you see value at -400? Maybe slight value but not huge imo Rashad did train with him and has things the previous contenders didnt in better wrestling etc

I think Evans is 20% or so to win here and if he hits +500 i'll get on him. Wouldn't get on Jones until -330 or so personally against Rashad, but after Hendo if JJ keeps winning then i'll be on him every fight he's under -500 since the rest of LHW doesnt have a chance

Also Diaz fanboys on Ellenberger could easily push the line to -140/+140 or so imo

wow, we get it - you like condit and not diaz. But this is becomming incredibly stupid.

I guess he means Diaz is more popular. No idea if it's enough to influence line movements, probably not, but don't think hes hating.

it obv influences lines..

I understood it as Diaz fans will move the line cause they now all hate Condit (lol), and therefore bets against him.

When Diaz isn't fighting I think it's pretty stupid to argue that his "fanboys" are the ones influencing the lines, how about Ellenberger fanboys?

Besides, I don't think fanboys you see on various forums are betting big - back with Bisping vs. Mayhem it was pretty clear who everyone was a fan of, but the line actually moved the other way.

sharp money will not negate it? I realize it will move, but it should be corrected quite fast shouldn't it?

I'm just guessing here. I bet pennies. But if it's that easy to predict line movements it seems like an absurdly easy way to make money.

This is what I mean, although I am hating on Diaz as well because he's my least favourite fighter (overrated, disrespectful and a whiny crybaby) and I find his fans more annoying and generally wrong about everything MMA related than any other fanbase as well (only slight offense intended to the Diaz fans out there)

I feel like a lot of Diaz fans will feel pissed because they thought Diaz won (which he didn't and it wasnt that close) and will therefore think Condit is overrated and will bet on Ellenberger, moving his line in slightly. That's what I think could happen anyway, i'm speculating.

On to 144 I liked the card for betting more when G-Sot was fighting Gomi (I was going to bet big on him as Gomi is basically washed up in my opinion, and G-Sot has gone from overrated to underrated after the loss to RDA)

I'm going to get on Bart Palaszewski pretty heavily if he's +200 or better, I think he could open as high as +280 even. I feel like Bart is underrated, I mean the guy KO'd Tyson Griffin and beat Anthony Pettis, and Hatsu Hioki just stole a decision from George Roop (who I had winning) and has spent the last few years mostly crushing cans. Hioki can win by decision due to reach and wrestling, but Bart has a lot of paths to victory as well. I feel like the true line might be close to evens but Hioki should open as a big favourite. If Hioki wins and gets Aldo next, I might make my first 10+ unit bet on Aldo even, there is no way Hioki will ever wear a belt in the UFC and that includes if he drops to BW in the future.

I'll get on Vaughan Lee if he's a decent dog to Kid Yamamoto - although I don't really rate Vaughan Lee at all, Kid Yamamoto is just terrible these days and he has a solid fanbase who will keep him a decent favourite when he doesn't really deserve to be -200 or better against anyone in his division in the UFC. Of course the odds could be totally off what i'm expecting, but this is speculation.

Akiyama/Shields has so many unknown factors but if Akiyama is +400 or something insane I might make a small play on him simply because i'm not sure where Shields head is at and Akiyama will have good TDD and in a 3 round fight he could win 2 rounds.

If Okami's -250 or better i'll take him over Boetsch, if the Kongo odds get to -220ish i'll get on him and if not i'll stay away and i'm not touching either side of Lauzon/Pettis or any of the other prelims most likely.

Got a unit on Frankie, will probably add another couple to retain because he always finds a way and Bendo will find it tough to take Frankie down and the only way he wins standing is by landing a big shot and finishing - I expect Frankie will outpoint him standing 49-46 or 48-47 or so.

I love the seven fight main card, it would be nice to see less numbered PPV cards given the TV deals being able to give us lots of smaller events and it would allow the UFC to stack each one with more fights like 144 is. With how long is it between 144 and 145 and 146 they could easily throw in a few more LHW fights on each card and really stack them, Ortiz/Griffin or Franklin as a comain for 145 and then add in Machida and Shogun vs 12-18 ranked guys (Mo Mousasi Maytushenko etc) on 146 (they both need a win before they can fight their rubber match late this year imo)

Rambling thoughts aside, I expect to be big on Edgar, Okami and Palaszewski at 144 (depending on odds of course on the latter two) with smaller plays on Kongo and Lee probably. Rampage too if he gets below -200. Shame about G-Sot I feel like he matched up well with Gomi.

Anyone else see value anywhere on 144 or agree/disagree with any of my picks?

Lots of value at -400. Machida is the only fighter I see standing a chance against Jones right now at 205 and he got finished. Maybe King Mo or Gustafsson if he keeps improving a ton. Jones is better than Rashad at everything except 1 strike KO power. He has better ground and pound, better takedowns, better submission game, better reach, and better striking. Rashad has zero advantages, he is going to get mauled.

I would love Okami at -250, but we'll see where that line opens, probably worse than that.

Anyone think Bader has a chance to do what Evans did against Rampage and control him with power doubles?

I agree 100% with your analysis on the Bart/Hioki fight.

To me, it seems like the line for any Kid fight looks at his fan base, flashy style, and tattoos. There's definitely value in that fight.

I might stay away from the Shields/Akiyama fight. Like you said, there are too many unknowns. Is this Akiyama's first fight at 170?

I definitely see value in Okami all the way to -300. I don't see a lot of ways to victory for Boetsch, although, I'm a fan of his redneck Judo. I'm also not touching the Lauzon/Pettis fight. I'd imagine the lines will be fairly close. If I had to pick one atm, I'd pick Pettis to outpoint Joe.

I see a lot of value in Kongo here and will bet him up to -270/290, but it'll be interesting to see how Mark Hunt performs. He beat a game,albeit, a tired Ben Rothwell and has been looking better.

I went back and forth with the Bendo/Edgar fight many times. I think you said it best when you said, "Edgar finds a way to win." Not a science by any means, but there's a lot of merit in that. I think his speed and gameness (real scientific) will earn him a decision victory.

There's some money to be made ladies and gents. GL.

I personally don't. Did Rashad control Rampage when he got him down? IIRC, he controlled him for some of the third, but honestly don't remember that well.

I just think Rashad has some of the most fluent MMA wrestling. His transitions are slick and powerful. Bader seems to get frustrated when he realizes his double isn't going to work, and spends the rest of the fight gassing himself on hopeless doubles. This fight is taylor made for Rampage and his TDD.

I dumped 11U on Rampage at -230. I saw the line went to -270 then back to -260. It'll be interesting to see where it ends up.

He was at -205 at one of the books earlier today. If Rampage is -200ish ill get on him, if its closer to -300 i wont

I need to start getting money on more than two sites if I'm going to make some scrilla. -205 and -260 is quite a difference.

Between Pinnacle and Sportbet they have most of the best lines, although Bodog and TheGreek and BetUS are also really slow to move lines sometimes

That said I only currently have a pinnacle account, and I occasionally make bets live as well. I should get a sportbet one if they're good with payouts, anyone got any experience?

*Disclaimer I have no idea how good any of the online sportsbooks are for cashouts/etc do your own research*

Sportsbook still has Rampage at -205, i'd bet that if I had $ there but I feel like i'll probably be able to get similar anyway and it's not worth depositing just for that bet but if he got to -170 or something I would.

Pretty much agree with you SwooP. Palaszewski is a beast. One fight I'm thinking about is the Kongo vs Hunt fight. From one side, it looks like they are throwing Kongo a bone. But, this is a man who has defeated the likes of Cro Cop and Wanderlai and has had lots of kickboxing fights. His last fight against Rothwell he was pretty gassed, but it may have been to the high altitude area they where fighting in, I think Rogan said something about it during the fight. However, what makes me worried is that Kongo is just going to avoid the striking and thus avoid getting clipped and just focus on wrestling Hunt, which will land him the decision.

The general consensus is that Okami is going to easily handle Boetsch and that Pettis will outpoint Lauzon. So that's who the odds will be moving in favor towards. Though I don't know if they're going to move enough to make a +EV bet on either underdog.

Pettis should beat Lauzon without too much trouble. Lauzon's gas tank is awful, Pettis has great conditioning, better striking, and his wrestling has improved a lot since training with Askren.

I haven't really watched lots of either fighter, but I was impressed with Pettis last fight against Jerempy Stephens, I think he displayed a will to gameplan correctly and wasn't afraid to grind out a decision. Also his wrestling looked pretty decent to me overall.

Also, shields vs Akiyama, what do you guys think? I don't see Shields submitting him unless it's on the later rounds and both of them are dead tired. Possibly a fight going the distance? I think both guys standup is pretty bad, with Akiyama having slightly better hands and Shields a bit more diverse striking game? Shields standup is pretty akward and pretty stiff. What stands out is Akiyama has pretty good TDD and might be able to keep it on the feet? However, Akiyama is moving down so his cardio might be even worse than before?

Akiyama can probably take the decision if he can keep it on the feet. But like you said, his cardio sucks and now he's dropping weight? So many ?'s here. I could definitely see Shields catching a sub. Probably should just steer clear.

Shields is a better fighter but Akiyama actually matches up well with him, it's a favourable matchup for Akiyama so at +350 or better I think there's value. Akiyama can definitely win two rounds, he outstruck leben for two rounds and got subbed with one minute left in a fight he would have won 29-28 - it all comes down to whether Akiyama's TDD is good enough. Akiyama's kryptonite is fast diverse strikers like Belfort, we all saw what happened there. I'm not sure Shields is fast enough to rock him standing, Shields will grab for legs and if Akiyama can defend the TD he can win by decision definitely. Shields wins over half the time but I have a feeling he may be overvalued odds wise. A lot depends which Shields shows up though, WW shields doesnt seem to be anywhere near as good/strong as MW shields was when he beat up Hendo. How Akiyama handles the cut is another factor too.

Personally I think Pettis is vastly overrated, but so is Joe Lauzon unfortunately. I had Stephens 29-28 and Stephens is a mid-level lightweight (although I was biased as I had bet stephens in that fight)

If Lauzon gets to +250 or so ill get on him for a small play but otherwise i'll leave it alone.

Barring a flash-ko or sub by Lauzon in r1, Pettis should get the decision or finish it late. Pettis will get annihilated again when he reaches the Guida-plus level of competition in the UFC though, Miller would sub him, Frankie would TKO or 50-45 him, Maynard would KO or decision him and I think bendo would probably win a rematch too.