Thanks. While I liked Ellenberger initially, starting to think it might be over marked now. His last win vs Shields should have an astericks beside it, due to the circumstances, and some bettors may be basing too much on that last victory vs Shields.

Thanks for the input, I will look harder into the fights you mentioned. I was leaning towards Herman, but need to check out more of his fights and that counter analysis Swoop mentioned. I have only read pro Herman stuff, soo will be nice seeing another perspective on that one. May just not be able to unload much on any of these. Thanks, Gl.

Not really, except how hard Struve hits gave me some pause. Didn't get to see Markes, for some reason he and Simpson didn't work out, neither did Menjivar and Albert.

And if the Diaz/Miller fight ends up looking similar to the Kim fight, that would be fine by me since I thought Diaz won.

Straight bets on Vagner Rocha (+175), Dave Herman (Even), Ellenberger (-265), Tim Means (Even), Loeffler vs Roberts completes 1 full round (+130).

Ellenberger/Herman parlay, Ellenberger/Miocic parlay.

Thanks. Do you know how much notice Rocha is working with in this fight? I guess he is in good shape from the canceled Brown FX fight. I think he is a live dog mainly because Brookins is marked up from his exposure on TUF.

Brookins was soo outclassed by Koch it was almost laughable. I know I am bias to the fighters I bet on in a match, but he had no chance whatsoever in that fight and was inferior by such a large margin on soo many levels. I know the kid has alot of heart as, but damn, he was outclassed.

Seems almost as good as a 50/50 for Rocha with nice odds. But it also seems like UFC likes to set up fighters and get matches they prefer to promote. I am not a conspiracy theorist, but kind of think they would prefer Brookins wins this and they were throwing Rocha in against Brown to get Brown back on track.

Hard to say, I don't think it isn't rigged, but it is business and their are preferred fighters and outcomes. When they prefer specific outcomes, it is almost a given when the fight is close who wins the decision, the preferred fighter. Brookins definitely has a bigger fan base and appeal factor, although soo horrendous against Koch. Think Brookins would prefer to keep this fight stand up, but might not be able too and Rocha's bbj and submissions seem just as solid as Brookins. I am still contemplating a bet on Rocha as a value dog????

Think I am sticking with Ellenberger at the earlier odds I got. Was contemplating a hedge bet on Sanchez, but Ellenberger is a well rounded beast with hard hands. One of the few fighters Condit couldnt take out with a stoppage. Despite Sanchez's excellent conditioning, he would have to have such a huge and clear edge to win this in Ellenbergers back yard by decision. Definitely seems like it could be tightly contested, but gonna stick with Ellenberger and regret I didn't put more on him before the odds increased.

Doubt it's rigged dude, just look at the Condit vs Diaz fight, it would have been a lot better for UFC if Diaz had won so that he could get his fight with GSP which will result in a lot more revenue than Condit vs GSP. Also, ldo UFC is interested in some fights or fighters that can bring good and a lot of publicity to UFC, after all they are a profit based organization. Do you think they wanted JDS to finish Cain so fast when it was on national TV? No, but nothing you can do about it. And Matchmaking goes out to make interesting and logical fights. There's a lot of factors to think about.

Yeah I don't think it is rigged either. But do you honestly think Sanchez gets a close decision against Ellenberger even if his fightmetric numbers are slightly better?

Obviously they cannot control outcomes nor would they deliberately try to, but if a fight is really close, it seems like certain fighters in given spots get the benefit of the doubt. Condit clearly beat Diaz in that fight, and Diaz will pick up plenty of revenue as he works his way back. GSP would have exploited Diaz one dimensional style much more effortlessly. I think Condit is actually a better match up for fight fans vs GSP, he has a beter shot at winning.

Not if you ask Joe Rogan or even Condit for that matter. Rogan said after watching the fight on tape that he thought Diaz won it, even though he thought at fight time Condit won it. Condit himself said after watching it that he wasn't sure he won it anymore.

The thing is, UFC doesn't have anything to do with the judging. So unless you are assuming that UFC is somehow bribing the referees, then you can't really assume certain fighters get the benefit of the doubt. It prolly more likely has to do with their style, etc Sanchez plotting forwards like a zombie in the kampmann fight, the judges thought he was controlling the fight and was being effective aggressive for example.

Good point. Maybe it is the home crowd influencing the judges sometimes, as the seem to also do in boxing. Or when a fight is close, maybe they revert to a "challenger should have done more to dethrone the champ" or just go with what their prefight expectations were(usually the favorite). Maybe even the fans influence the judgement as you have already mentioned by exagerrating the impact of their fighters scores.

I am sure it is not part of a deeper conspiracy. But for example in tonights fight, I don't see any chance in hell Sanchez gets a decision without demonstarting a dominating edge. Ellenberger will any decision if the fight is close. It is a home fight for Jake and he will definitely get the benefit of the doubt if there is any doubt. What do you think of Brookins and Rocha? Bit of a scrub fight, but after that lose to Koch it doesn't seem like Brookins should be a favorite against Richard Simmons. Watching Rocha fights tonight/this morning doesn't leave alot to be desired either, although McKenzie may be close to Brookins in overall ability.

My logic in betting on Rocha is just that he is a good grappler, and that's also Brookins' strength. Therefore, this will probably be primarily a grappling contest and Rocha is probably similar to Brookins in overall grappling ability. So +175 gives pretty good odds.

So I wanted to bet Ivan Menjivar at -280, and since the weigh-in the line is down all the way to -180. Now I'm nervous that there's something I don't know. His opponent, Albert, was on TUF, so maybe the public is just backing him because they know him. Other than that, I can't figure it out. Any ideas?

Sick. He made weight fine. I'd check twitter to see if there's any breaking info there but ya that's great news. Ellenberger is all the way to -400 now, and the Simpson line seems to be getting worse as well.

1u Struve
0.5u on each of Menjivar, Simpson
0.25u on each of Sanchez, Watson

I feel like I go 3/5 here a bunch and I have 4 underdogs including 2 significant underdogs so it feels like value. I can end up + for the card going 2/5 if Struve wins, or break even quite easily if he loses.

Not the best card

I quite like Sanchez at current odds, Ellenberger just isn't THAT much better than him. I don't feel like Diego should be that much of a dog at WW against anyone other than GSP really and i'm not really a sanchez fan (granted i also don't really like ellenberger and think he's being a bit overrated)

I also think Struve will find a way to win, because he's better than people think, and Herman is worse than people think, and Herman isn't fast enough to flash-KO him imo (the only way struve loses)

Menjivar isnt great but he's better than Albert, and I like Albert and bet him on the TUF finale

Watson is being underrated he won his last fight imo and should be 2-0 in the UFC plus hes huge for the division

Simpson is a known mid level guy who rarely underperforms and only loses to the elite of the division really and he's facing a prospect so i'll take him at evens since Markes hasn't shown me he's a legit contender yet. I could be wrong but whatever it's half a unit i'll bet against the hype this time.

Also 0.5u total on 2sx10 combos of Struve Sanchez Menjivar Simpson Watson. If 3/5 win i'll show a profit, if 2/5 do a small loss unless it's the two big underdogs. Will make a fun sweat though. If I somehow go 4/5 or something which is possible i'll crush it and I doubt I ever really go 1/5 and brick the lot but it's possible I guess.

Overall 3 units wagered on the event, time for Stefan Struve to prove to the world that i'm right, the critics are wrong and he'll be a contender one day when he learns to use his reach and fills out to 290 to cut to 265...

Many people picking Struve in the media...surprising.

And from what we've seen...yes Ellenberger is much better than Sanchez, from the evidence we have available. Look at their respective records at WW. Ellenberger had a SD loss to the current champ that probably should have been scored a draw, a vicious KO win over an elite WW, and brutally finished 3 of his 4 wins against weak-to-medium-level competition. Sanchez has fairly beaten one top WW and that was a decision over Nick Diaz in the stone age (2005) and lost to 2 others. Against weak-to-medium level comp, he has finished just 2 of his 5 wins and lost a lopsided decision to Jon Hathaway. I'm just leaving his fight with Kampmann out of the picture because almost everyone scored it for Kampmann but I don't want to dock Sanchez for a "win."

Don't think this fight will be close unless Ellenberger gasses badly or Sanchez can hit a sweep/sub from his back.

I'll be in the arena, so I'm pretty excited. Hoping Ellenberger can get a KO for the home crowd and all the fighters put on a good show. Be back after to dissect!

Read a struve interview about how he plans to stay calm and focused, use his reach and work for subs on the ground.

Liked it enough to think he has a gameplan so I added an extra 1.5u

2.5u on Struve now.

done with betting I think gl me if struve wins im up, if he loses i'll be down but not by that much if I can bink an underdog pick or two

Have fun. Don't get me wrong I think Ellenberger wins well over half the time but when Sanchez is +320 or so I see some value there in a 3 round fight. If the sanchez that fought paulo thiago shows up we're in for a real close fight.

FWIW you glossed over Ellenberger being badly outclassed for a round against the mid-level-to-weak Carlos Eduardo Rocha before narrowly winning r2/3 for a 29-28 that one judge (incorrectly) scored for Rocha and his shields win came when shields mind was probably not in the right place.

Excuses are like *******s for the Shields fight. If you don't think you can perform, don't show up.

Ellenberger was "badly outclassed" grappling with an excellent submission grappler. Sanchez was "badly outclassed" kickboxing with an excellent kickboxer in his last fight. No shame in that, but Ellenberger was able to figure out a way to win while Sanchez needed a gift from the judges to "win."

So you mean just like every single time he's fought? Do you know how many times I've read interviews of people saying "I lost last time, but now I've changed it up and have a great gameplan", only to fall in the same pattern after 15 s. He said the same thing before his Travis Browne fight, before the Nelson fight, pretty much everytime he's fought. I mean stuff like "I plan to stay calm and focused, use my reach and work for subs on the ground", what so you haven't tried to use your reach the last times 31 times you've fought, and only now you've come to the conclusion that you should use your reach to your advantage? Give me a break.

Most fighters don't change that much from fight to fight even if they train their ass if. It's like when Dan Hardy said he's trained wrestling/grappling a lot now and will be able to compete on the ground...

Rocha is a high class grappler, there's no shame in being outclassed by someone like that(I don't recall him being that much outclassed though, not like humiliated or anything). Also, Paulo Thiago is a skilled grappler and striker for sure, but you can't compare Thiago and Ellenberger bc the difference in the two of them is that Ellenberger has a lot better TDD's than Thiago and Sanchez won the fight vs Thiago only because he was able to take him down and grind him, which many people don't think he'll be able to do to Ellenberger.

Ellenberger won't lose here. Just a shame to see the odds shoot up soo much to the point of draining the value. I guess it is to be expected, almost every big winning mma bettor I know had him weeks ago. No way the judges give the decision to Sanchez if the fight is remotely close.

While the Ellenberger fight could end up a great match, the Herman fight seems more interesting from a gambler's perspective, especially since the odds have gone soo high in the Sanchez fight. Sturve is only 23, so definitely improving and learning how to maximize his range. As a tall person who has been in many fights, it is hard to realize sometimes how far you actually have to be to get the right snap/force on your punches, and how to coordinate footwork with this.

Herman edges will be is punching and strength, but I think if the fight goes to the mat, Struve could use those long flexible limbs to wrap Herman into potential submission. Definitely seeing more overall support for Herman, which makes me want to throw down a small bet on Struve.

Sure hope Brookins looks as bad as he did last fight. Rocha gotta be a coinflip with good odds I hope!!!

, I told you guys. Brockins is going to be a mid level guy. He doesn't posses the best standup, but he's a very athletic and good wrestler, and those often dominate BJJ guys.

Scrub fight, looked like Rocha had the edge standing. ****ty connection didn't see how Brookins was able to just get the clear chin shots that ended it. Is there a better way to watch these than the advertised on line connections? Hope Menjivar gets me back to even.

Seems like a hard thing to say the way Koch just manhandled him soo badly, that fight was horribly lopsided.

Wish I had seen how the fight went to the ground, my connection froze and the next thing I see is Brookins landing clean shoots to the chin. So easy to knock another man out if you get a clean chin shot, have seen it and done it. Guess it will be on TV soon thank god, always lags at the worst time.

Basically brockins did a kind of pushkick, rocha caught it and tried pushing him down, brockins reversed, ended top controll and landed some clean shots. Also, don't want to say that Rocha had the edge standup, they where briefly on the feet and imo it looked evens. I didn't see the fight vs Koch, but from what I hear Koch is a very very good fighter and cannot be compared w Rocha.