^

agreed but koscheck would take ellenberger and story to the ground. i think in a rematch he would do the same with Pierce (more frequently).

Koscheck seems to be kind of a ****** when it comes to strategy. Hes very willing to utilize a wrestle**** gameplan, but when he thinks he can stand with someone hes just horrible. i think he had 3 TDA vs pierce.

I mean lets give Pierce a little credit. He's a strong defensive wrestler and Koscheck cannot just take him down at will.

Kos's striking is lightyears behind the top of the ww's fighters. He's tentative, doesn't have good timing,technique and pretty much only uses his hands.
If he wants to beat anyone that matters he basically has to use his wrestling, which he in some fights doesn't use enough.

Kos Hendricks should be close. I'll probably take whoever the underdog is. If Kos uses his wrestling optimally he should win, if he fights like he did against Pierce he should lose.

Either way its a good fight

Swoop I just wanted to say, before I forget, that if you think Struve is a +EV bet, then just go with your read and bet him. I say that because you will probably regret it if you skip the bet and he wins, but if you do bet him and lose you probably won't care that much. In my pre-posting on this forum days, I was sure Lauzon had a great chance to upset Guillard. The price was amazing, like +350 I think, and I was all set to bet on Lauzon. But in the last week leading up to the fight, after EVERY analyst picked Guillard in a whitewash, I just shrugged and threw him into my 10-fighter $5 parlay. It ended up being the only miss and I was pissed off that I didn't go with my read.

Yeah i'm still not sure. The evidence suggests struve should get KO'd a lot but I just have a feeling he'll find a way to win

I'll see where the odds settle on fight day.

On another note anyone else love Wonderboy Thompson vs Matt Brown if he comes in as an underdog or at close to evens? I have a feeling if his TDD is good he could be the next big . I haven't been that impressed by a relative unknown since the Barao/Pickett fight

Doubt Thompson will come in as a underdog, he will most likely be the favorite. Should be something like 1.4-1.8 and Brown will be +2.4. The KO head kick of his didn't help his odds exactly...

Also don't forget SwoopE, I think he might be the next big thing as well, but it's too early to tell, though he has the record and experience to back it up. I would like to see him against a decent opponent first though, like not someone like the last guy who had 0% chance after 10 s cause you saw what an amateur he was in the standup, followed a lolbad gameplan and wasn't athletic at all. Seriously, he fought a real bottom of the ocean kind of fighter. My point is, it's easy to be impressed by a fighter when he fights a nobody, cause they give him the space to do his own thing, but put him in the cage which someone that's good and you'll see just how good this kid is.

nate diaz +190. not interested in this to be honest. I was hoping his last couple of fights would have him at lower odds so i could sneak in a bet at Miller. This seems somewhat accurate, no?

kind of interested in Sakara at +313.

Mcdonald +130 vs. Torres. Thoughts?

I would wait to bet Miller. The Diaz hype machine and broad fanbase will have the odds lower before the fight. Alot of weekenders and guys who have to wait til payday to bet will be putting their casual money on Diaz.

His brother Nick's last fight had alot of late steam on him, literally 2-3 minutes before the fight his price as the favorite rose over a dime at some sites. I expect the same kind of push when Nate fights. Miller is a consumate professional, not overly flashy or loud mouthed, so he won't be as attractive to dumb bettors who rely on flash and image instead of substance.

Think there might be some value on Diaz there. He has much better standup than Miller, though we'll see if he'll get to use it.

McDonald being + money against Torres could be attractive but then again, he had a competitive fight with Figueroa which looks awful now after that guy's last showing. Should probably dig up some tape on McDonald, don't think I've watched him yet.

Thompson will most likely be 2:1 favorite at least against Brown.

Attended open workouts today! Enjoyed watching/meeting the fighters. Struve said he weighs about 265 right now, so he's filling out well. Man watching him hit the mitts was crazy, his strikes are absurdly forceful. Herman looked super relaxed, also grew a massive beard so it took me awhile to figure who he was.

Sanchez was telling me and my buddy how he "knows he would have finished Kampmann if he has been in shape" LOL I kind of wanted to be like oh yeah I had that fight 29-27 Kampmann but I just bit my tongue and nodded. Sanchez did claim he was only 5 pounds away from weight though. If that's true, it's a good sign for Sanchez backers because he has not looked fit his last few fights since moving back up. He said he cut 14 pounds on weigh in day before the Kampmann fight.

That fight was a nightmare to score. Kampmann took first round but the 2nd and 3rd round where very hard to score. Was either 29/28 in favor of kampmann or 29/28 in favor of Sanchez.

This story reminds me of the time i went to vegas to bet jds and somehow was convinced into betting cain by the end of the trip

Diaz has better stand-up, but Miller is fearless and has never been knocked out or stopped in his career. He has faced better strikers(Edgar's is better and even Guillard's striking is on par with Diaz). Miller looked razor sharp, i focus and conditioning against Guillard. He took several good shots, but always looked confident and in control, took him down and got a fairly quick submission.

Miller's stand up defense will never allow Diaz, an above average but not elite striker to knock him out for the first time ever. The greater Diaz's edge standing(which I think is significant but not huge) will translate into quicker and more frequent takedown attempts by Miller.

Miller's ability to take Diaz down at will should be the prevailing factor. Miller might not have the most stifling top control, but he will dominate the takedown numbers and do enough to get a win, either by submission or much more likely by an at times ugly decision. Miller is a more technically sound, more rounded mma fighter. His pedigree and record is more impressive. Should be an interesting contrast of styles and a true test for Diaz.

I would bet Diaz sooner than later if I liked him as his odds should go down as the fight approaches. Personally I am waiting on the odds for Miller to drop.

Don't think I can say with confidence that Edgar's standup is better than Diaz's. I think his chances of boxing his way to a decision are good enough that it's worth a try at almost 2:1.

True, I can't really argue with that. I think it is more a personal bias, I like Miller, not a huge fan of either Diaz. Also hoping/expecting this line to go down. Might be a good play to go the distance. Hard to see Miller KO'ed for the first time ever or Diaz submitted.

Yeah I DEFINITELY don't foresee a finish in this fight. Betting the fight to go the distance will probably be +EV.

Something that should be taken into consideration for this fight is where Diaz's head is going to be at. He will have solid training partners in Shields and Gilbert but Nick is gonna be all messed up in the head for awhile. For a fighter that relies (or I believe relies) so heavily on his older brother - this could have a strong influence on his fight training. Just some food for thought.

That fight has unam decision written all over it. It all depends whether or not miller can take Diaz down and grind out a decision, if he can't do that then I would go Diaz all day long. Should prolly watch the Diaz maynard fight for a kind of simulation to see how he fared w maynards TDD's.

has nate ever managed to keep it standing against semi-competent grapplers who wanted to take him down?

He dominated Cerrone, but he never even tried to get it to the ground. Same with Gomi, Davis, Markham and Guillard. (ok, lol guillard)
In 4 years he hasn't been able to beat a guy with a wrestling gameplan.


+1 to what EarlyCuyler said.

maynard = deathly afraid of Diaz groundgame though. Understandable due to their fight on TUF.

I don't think Miller is.

I think its hard to say since Nate did fight a portion of his career at 170 where he was on the smaller side. That being said, I think you are definitely on to something.

Miller has a granite chin and is not afraid to eat a shot coming in to wrap his gorilla arms around his opponent to go for the takedown. If that is Millers gameplan, its gonna be a long night for Diaz. I see a Diaz v. Stungun type of fight.

I like nate here at +200 for sho

Interesting to see the Sherdog preview columnist guy also has Struve to win and went 100% on the main card same as me on 143. Guess i'm not the only one who thinks he's value as a dog which is good to know i've literally seen next to no one picking Struve so far except me.

For some reason I cant access pinnacle from my hotel wifi in thailand but it works fine from netcafes so i'll make any bets I plan to make tomorrow and post it in thread if I do

At the moment i'm leaning small odds play on Sanchez, small to medium Struve bet, small odds play on Watson. I liked the favourites at 143, I like the dogs at this one, overall super weak card for betting though.

Did you see anything here to change your mind or think that there may be added value in any side? Seems like the value of Ellenberger has been sucked out by the increasing line. Did you see Markes? The swing in his odds now make it almost unbettable. Hard to see a ton of value in this card unless I am missing something?

Decent value on Herman to win over struve. Also I guess a small bet on Sanchez wouldn't be terrible wrong considering he has a way to win over Jake. Sanchez is a wildcard, some things he's got going for him is his cardio and fast pace, wouldn't be surprised if it looked a lot like the Kampmann fight. He ain't getting Jake down like the kampmann fight either. Him losing the first round and then winning the 2nd n 3rd isn't impossible if Jake gets gassed due to Sanchez tremendous tempo.
I hear Walel might be a live underdog as well, haven't seen him fight myself though so can't say anything.
I'm also going to put 1 unit on Jonathan Brockins, dudes a beast when it comes to throws, if anyone watched tuf, he was very impressive. I foresee a unam decision where Brockins utilizes his wrestling to grind out a decision. I've also put 2 units on Herman to win.