A death from what Swiiftx just said (an awkward throw where someone breaks a neck) is probably the most likely by quite a bit.

lol @ knees on the ground being "bloodlust" when elbows are allowed and cause just as bad of cuts, if not worse.

If you go until infinity, yes someone will die on a ufc ppv. But it's not very likely to occur for several decades if they keep up their current schedule.

I can barely remember a highprofile fight ending with a death under the last 50 years. one that would equal a ufc ppv that is.

No idea what the chances for death in either boxing or mma is, but possibly between 1:100k or more? How many ppv-fights does ufc put up every year? 200-300?

UFC rules are fine imo with exception of certain judges being totally incompetent. The 10-point system is fine really, could use minor tweaking but whatever. Soccer kicks etc are ******ed, lowers the career length of elite fighters, risks alienating casual fans, etc. Guaranteed finish bonus would be nice though to encourage fighters to try and finish when they're ahead.

Back on topic I don't really like any bets at the Sanchez/Ellenberger card.

At this stage i'd say Watson over Dillashaw at +200ish, Miocic over De Fries at what should be -280 or so once the good books release their lines, Struve +133 and Sanchez +269, two odds plays where the dog wins under half but enough to be +EV, I think Struve wins 50-55% or so and thats enough at +133 and Watson should win 40% or so of the time against Dillashaw if he can hurt him standing (otherwise he'll get 27-30'd).

I'm thinking i'll mostly stay away from this card, maybe put some quarter unit sweat/odds bets on Sanchez and Watson, half to a full unit on Struve depending whether he hits +150 and use Miocic in some parlays with undercard favourites once lines are released (neither Miocic or De Fries will ever be top 10 HW imo, but Miocic will reach mid-level and De Fries will end up 2-4 and being cut or something)

Maybe I'm missing something here but I for the love of god cannot see why you would pick struve in this fight. I have thrown 2 units on Herman while the odds where at 1.85 smth, now they're down to 1.75 on pinnacle. Herman has the better technical striking, more power, has the better chin, has himself very good submission attacks/defense(he pulled off a omiplata) and is quite tall so any reach advantage struve has, won't be that big.

Only way i see struve winning is if herman knocks him to the floor, dives on top of him and get triangled.

Well if you have paid any attention, you would know that Herman cannot get subbed, he has stated that himself. :P But ya, that's the only way he really wins, but I wouldn't bet my money on someone to triangle someone who has a decent grappling game themselves.

Diaz tests positive for marijuana metabolites , wanted to see that rematch.

http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Dia...o-Condit-40163

not really relevant to the conversation but wasnt the Duk Koo Kim v. Mancini fight fairly high profile since it was shown live on network TV

what does that mean, and why the **** would it matter

perfect example. I didn't think of it.

Also from wikipedia:

Because I think Herman is worse than most people think and I think Struve is better than most people think.

I haven't bet the fight yet and don't know if I will and i'm not claiming Struve is a lock or anything but if i'm forced to choose a side I take Struve here. Do you remember how Einemo was lighting Herman up on the feet in R1? I'd actually take Einemo over Herman in a rematch as I feel he mostly lost due to ring rust and poor gameplanning, granted struve is guilty of the latter on occasion.

Sure struve has horrible striking D for a guy with his height but so does Herman and Struve has more upside on the ground, the only thing Herman has over struve is better power but even there Struve finished a few guys with strikes it's not like he can't win standing.

Anyone got any insight on Watson/Dillashaw other than Dillashaw has better wrestling and a weak chin, and Watson is a mid-level striker? (Sidenote, I thought Watson should have won his last fight so i'm pretty high on him compared to most)

If Dillashaw can hold him down he'll win, but if he can't then Watson pretty much always takes it, as a decent underdog I don't mind watson here. Thoughts anyone?

I would love feedback on Aaron Simpson vs. Ronny Markes.
Why is it a flip?

I have limited knowledge on Markes, but i think Aaron is a very good fighter so the line caught my attention.

Markes looked really good at LHW in his debut IIRC and he's considered a decent talent.

The ONLY thing Herman has over Struve is better power? How about...takedown defense? The ability to actually get hit in the face and not topple over? Struve is bad. If he beat Herman, he and Fatty McTits need to have a battle for worst fighter to ever win more than a couple of fights in the UFC. Russow.

That match was evenly contested, both of them landed big punches and especially Herman landed some devastating knee's that finished the fight.Herman won since he defended the submission attempts on the ground against a good grappler in Einiemo plus because he has a iron chin and Struve doesn't posses the same power as Einemo. Herman's striking defense is a lot better than Struves as well.

I can't imagine why Dillashaw wouldn't beat Watson as well. Decent enough on the feet to set up his takedowns so unless Watson happens to have a really good guard (possible since he's so long)...also Dillashaw getting blitzed by hard strikes from someone with really good power = he has a bad chin? Am I missing something here...?

Only bet I've made so far is to grab Ellenberger -265 before the price got any steeper. Waiting on the rest of Bodog's lines...

Ya, just cause you get TKO'd one time doesn't mean you have a weak chin. Like would you say GSP has a weak chin bc he got tagged and tko'ed by serra? I wouldn't I'd say he has a normal/decent chin, but ldo no where near Chris Lytle n Roy Nelson chin.

Diaz is looking at a one year suspension due to a second failed weed test. Can't have a rematch if he can't fight.

Might I remind you Stefan Struve is 6-3 in the UFC, saying he hasn't won 'more than a couple fights in the UFC' when he's got a 2-1 win/loss ratio and one of the 3 losses was to the current champ is pretty misleading.

Also, he already fought Nelson and lost, the third was a flash KO against Travis Browne, his wins are a mixture of semi-cans and lower-mid level guys, it all depends where you think Herman fits into the HW picture.

I'm curious on Simpson/Markes too, Markes is getting good action with the line moving in his favour.

Honestly I might nearly stay away from this event I expect to bet 3-4 units absolute max with none made so far, and 144 is right around the corner with much better betting opportunities (sigh that Sot had to pull out he would have subbed Gomi so easy and there would have been so much value imo)

I don't either see this as a particularly good card for betting except for herman struve fight. Someone with more insight into markes simpson could prolly make some, but I haven't rlly followed those two fighters to make any comment. I only remember Markes destroying Karlos Vemola, a high level wrestler, with grappling. So that should say smth.

Btw, the fighters Struve has won over, they've all been proven to be cans/low level guys. And in most of them, he's been getting his ass kicked by ppl with far worse standup than herman.

http://www.oddschecker.com/other-spo...n-jones/winner

Any one else think Evans looks like a good bet here, he trained with Jones and won't be as scared as the previous opponents were.

He also has one shot knock out power, I believe Jones most likely to win but +400 to +498 still seems like value

I think thats why people are high on Markes chances and the line keeps dropping. Simpson obviously is known to be a high level wrestler, and Markes showed in the Vemola fight that his wrestling and grappling is solid enough to handle high level wrestlers. Simpson has good power in his hands but he tends to throw wild punches and come forward with borderline reckless aggression. Not that I am a classically trained striker (or anything remotely close to it) but in my opinion, Simpsons striking looks fairly sloppy and open as he relies on his power more than his technique.

Though, we know that mma wrestling =/= wrestling. I like to stay away from fights like these unless there's more to it, like a word going around that one of the fighters is rlly rlly good etc.

lol did you even read my post? I clearly said a matchup of worst fighters who HAVE won more than a couple of fights. And his wins are ALL cans, the best fighter he's beaten is...Pat Barry? -_- And notice I said I was talking about Russow not Nelson. Couldn't remember his name for a minute there.

And Karlos Vemola = a better wrestler than Simpson guys? Idk...mojo is def right about his striking being sloppy as hell though.

I would just stay away from Evans/Jones I think, cuz Evans is probably going to get demolished...

I was wondering what websites you guys use to keep up to date on UFC info?