Got on woodley and dunham for a unit each. Maia also seems headed to +200 will take him if he gets there

Also .2u odfs play on vailleflag

Feels like Fitch is gonna get hit hard on game day. I could be totally wrong tho, as I thought this line would be about -250 by now.

Well it's -212 now so I'd say it's getting hit pretty hard already

I kind of like Maia at current price and if it gets better i will definitely put a bet on him.

I'm even thinking about betting bigfoot, but that's based on quite shaky speculations. If Silvas chin holds up for a round or so i think he can break Overeem physically and mentally.
I'll see what happens. As of right now my only bets are on Edgar and Evans/Overeem parlay.

Probably jumping on Woodley and Dunham too.

Kind of like Mccall. Thoughts on that fight?

The more I think about it the more I like McCall as well especially at those odds. I've thrown 1u on and I'm thinking about another. He was extremely live against Mighty Mouse, who is definitely better than Benavidez.

I'm not sure I love Dunham as much as some of you. I've kind of lost faith in him recently I guess. Tibau is strong and a solid wrestler and I can see him grinding a decision.

Just curious, but what speculations?

I seriously doubt Silva's chin will be able to hold up, seeing as he's been KO'd by Cormier and dropped by Kyle, neither of which have the power/technique/strength that the former heavyweight kickboxing champ has. Even if Silva miraculously survives to the later stages of the fight, he will not be able to break the stronger man physically, and with Overeem being a veteran, there is nothing Silva can do to break him mentally either. IMO, Overeem should win this easily, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a 1st round KO.

Benavidez has the edge in power and wrestling. Mccall is going through some serious personal issues like divorce, etc. My money's on Benavidez.

Thoughts on Rivera vs. Figueroa?
Rivera is 26% on Sherdog, which is absolutely shocking to me. Am I missing something here?

If Silva's chin holds up he could absolutely bash Overeem and make him quit. Problem is I can't trust that chin against anyone, much less Overroid.

Yeah basically around the fact that Silvas standup is alright and that Overeem only fought two good heavyweights since his transformation, 1 of which was Brock looking to lose and in the other he looked like dog****.

If he huffs and puffs after a round like he did vs Werdum i think he may break down and lose this.

Not sure i will put a bet, but i might to hedge that parlay i already have on Overeem.
Silvas chin is not horrible, but definitely suspect. Overeem can put his lights out very easily but for that to happen he needs to take some risks.

Not sure what you mean with ¨"silva have no chance of breaking overeem mentally because he's a veteran", have you not seen his pre hulkmode fights? He's lost several times due to mental breakdown. He's not mentally tough at all.

Fwiw, both Cormier and Kyle hit very hard but i agree that Silvas chin is nothing to write home about.

If by transformation you mean his move to HW, he's also fought Spong, Hari, Bojansky, etc. Though that was kickboxing, so not sure you would count those.

If you're referring to his LHW days, that was 5-8 years ago against Shoguns and Big Nogs in their prime. IMO, Silva has nothing in his standup to offer Overeem problems. Overeem has a suspect chin himself, but has fought and beaten plenty of elite kickboxers at HW and should not have a problem with Silva's standup.

All it takes is a big punch. I've said many times on these forums what kingofcool said, the guy is a mental midget. He has shown many times he will quit in the face of real danger.

Did anyone watch Bellator? I had a play on Rickels and man count me SHOCKED the judges got that right. Unanimous no less!

I definitely do not count his k-1 fights. It's a different sport.

He never fought big nog. He fought lil nog.
Add Kharitonov at heavyweight.

Why would his increased muscle mass mean he's suddenly mentally strong?

Don't get me wrong. I think he's a big favorite over Silva, which is why i'm not jumping at Silva at current odds. I just disagree with Silva not being able to break him mentally as he's so so weak in that aspect.

judges got it wrong, this aint japan rules.

But happy the better fighter won nonetheless.

No way, they got that right. Rickels boxed his ears off in the second, dude could barely move.

Rivera's fight was less memorable than the Bruce Leeroy vs Fig fight.

Casual fan money goes on the fighter they've heard of

Reem won't have any problem with Silva, if I recall correctly, Reem has problems with strikers who are aggressive and can slip punches and then he looks a bit shaky, but it seems he's gotten a lot better defensively since his days at pride. What I remember from Silva is that he's not that aggro and his hands are so big it's going to be difficult to slip in punches :P I think Cain is a nightmare for velasquez bc of his wrestling, aggressivness and non-stop cardio.

He's been pretty aggressive in the fights I've watched.

But silva is slow, it's the fast aggressive fighters that hurt Reem.

Have no idea what to bet on this card. Reem and Rashad are locks but hate laying that price. McCall did do amazingly well vs DJ whereas Benavidez didn't. Hate watching fights without having bets on them. Just gonna take all underdogs and hope not to lose too much. Sweat entertainment is worth the -EV bets.
Bets on:

Edgar: Can't really go wrong here either way here. Aldo is for sure the better fighter with more skill and technique. Frankie can arguably be undefeated as champ. If this were a champ vs champ fight the line would be much closer to be a pk imo.

Lil Nog: He's got nothing goin for him except for good boxing and the tough Nogueira heart. Rashad is too fast, too good of an athlete, great wrestling, strong takedowns and decent fight IQ. Lil Nog's just gotta land the strong punch and get lucky. Evan's has been rocked a few times and gassed vs Thiago. On the feet, Nog has a chance.

Bigfoot Silva: Reem does not posess Cain's wrestling skills. Couldn't really see what Silva can do on the feet. Overeem was a K1 champ with a pace that's slow unlike Cain. Bigfoot will get owned on the feet but will have time to adjust if doesn't get clocked in the 1st rd when Reem's most dangerous. Can't really think of any other reasons on how Silva can win. That said, he was even more of a dog vs Fedor. In some ways, Brock made Overeem's stock higher and might possibly be overhyped.

Maia: Fitch has always made me money except for the last 2 times. I had him beating Hendricks and losing to Erick. Sigh... He says he baits people into subbing him and gassing themselves. Really? Are you sure you want to play game vs one of the best BJJ players in MMA? On the feet either are that great. Fitch will outpower, outwork, outwrestle, outpoint Maia. With that much time on the mat, can Fitch hold 15min for the win vs an elite grappler? There will be numerous sub attempts, can Maia connect on only one? He's got OK size for Welterweight, would be surprisingly great if Fitch wants none of Maia on the ground. Defintely unlikely but would be a great sight.

McCall: hmmm... seems extremely outclassed here. He did give DJ a tougher fight than Benavidez. mma math lolz. Think there's OK value here.

I really don't see how anyone scored the first fight for Edgar in Edgar Bendo fight. The word "arguably" is being thrown around way too freely imo. Also, Maia isn't that dangerous from his back vs an elite wrestler like Fitch.

I don't see how anyone could have scored the second fight for Bendo, yet because he 'won' it's 'arguable' so I guess the same could apply to the first fight

Leonard Garcia 'arguably' beat Nam Phan too, right? and Guillard 30-27'd Varner? lol

Fight Metric scored the 2nd fight a 48-48 draw. The 10-10 round was the 4th. In that 4th, Ben landed a head kick that knocked out Frankie's mouthpiece. IMO, the best moment for either man in that round.

The above doesn't mean that Henderson was the clear cut winner. It does however substantiate a split decision result which, if judged properly, indicates a very close fight. Not a one sided affair in favor of Frank Edgar.

Personally I thought the fight was a coin toss. Felt Ben was the rightful winner given that his blows appeared to do more damage. Also would have been fine with Edgar winning.

Not counting Reem's K1 fights is like not considering Robert Drysdales ADCC pedigree when he fights.

K1 and MMA have huge crossover especially when looking at a fighters ability to take a shot. His recent K1 fights are far more relevant than his losses 5-8 years ago prior to gaining 50lbs of muscle.

My only actual bets so far
reem-360
Reem has clear weaknesses but silva is not the fighter to exploit them.

mccall+215