Snagged some early props, best of them looks to have been Rampage by decision +687, that's down to +494 now.

Got in on Bellator before the lines got pounded so I got Askren/Lima/Lawal parlay at close to evens for 2u and Askren/Amoussou o3.5 at -195. Also grabbed Weedman at -120, unfortunate that he got bet off the plus money opener but I still think he should win this.

New props are up, added:

Guida by decision -107
Bader ITD -156
DJ by UD +140

Was anyone able to get in on Russow/Jordan goes the distance when it opened at +364?

I see 5D finally adjusted the Koch/Lamas props, wish I had gotten more than a half unit on Koch ITD when it opened.

Also just added:

Teixeira by tko +282
Jordan by decision +465

Finalizing my bets soon. I think I'm going to wait and take Hatsu Hioki tho late because I expect people to keep betting Guida. I know he didn't look great against Lamas but man he is a WAY more talented fighter than Clay Guida. I love to watch the guy grapple and I could definitely see him tapping Guida here, and I think he has the superior standup. Anything over +200 is a bet here for me.

Does anyone here give Jackson a fair chance to beat Texeira? Is he in decent shape? Does he even want to fight in the UFC? (if they offered him a new contract, hence he cares about winning)

3.5u Pettis -110
1u Pettis 3r decision +178
0.5u Jackson 3r decision +687
0.5u Jackson/Teixeira FoTN +700
1u Grant -120
1u Grant/Koch 3r distance -225
0.5u Wiman/Grant FoTN +850
1u Koch -140
0.5u Koch ITD +273
0.5u Russow 3r decision +263
1u Bader ITD -143
0.3u Hioki ITD +625
1u Johnson 3r decision -125

Degeneracy!

5 round fights aren't allowed in Sweden.

Mousasi is a vastly superior striker to Gus. Far more rounded and with more tools. Has significant issues putting it together in MMA but this is mainly due (imo) to worries over the TD.

Gus isn't taking him down. The key aspect will be how GayGuard deals with the jab - can he slip, create angles and counter?

I really hope so, like rampages persona and his fighting style, even if he sounds a little deluded sometimes and the fact is that the sport has evolved and he's not willing to account for that. Concerning the fight, Glover is a tough sob but in all honesty, I think Glover is the one who is going to shoot for a takedown if anything, Rampage is too proud to gameplan and it might cost him. It's a fight, anything can happen so who knows.

fyp

But seriously though I do agree with your assesment.

Btw total aside, but absolutely AWFUL reffing in the Bellator fights last night. Tons of really bad standups and a ridiculously late stoppage by the ref in the Lima fight when his opponent could clearly barely stand way before he was finished.

I think Guida is gonna beat Hioki in typical Guida fashion. If anything I think there`s still value on him. I already have 1u on Demtrious Johnson and 1u on Koch....Guida is really the only other bet I`m contemplating. I guess if odds keep shifting on Cerrone I might throw a bit on him as well since Pettis is coming off a 1 yr lay off.

I agree that Hioki has more pure talent, but he seems to lack drive while in the cage. Guida hung with Bendo and Maynard, both of which are absolute monsters compared to Hioki. As much as I don't like him, I see Guida steamrolling through Hioki with little trouble.

Hioki got superb guard passing. But how is that gonna help him?

I think Guida humps him to a decision with a smaller chance of hioki subbing him or winning a scramble.

I'm not sure Guida can hang out in Hioki's guard all night without getting subbed. That's my thinking here. And Hioki has the better standup IMO, much more accurate puncher tho neither has any power.

Guidas style is so good for winning rounds tho. I guess we'll see, i like Hioki but would rather bet Rampage than Hioki i think.

I definitely see a bet on Rampage. Teixeira looks like a serious prospect but he looks overpriced to me. Guy got rocked by Maldonado bad and Rampage is still a hard puncher who is very difficult to finish.

This. While I do see Glover getting the win comfortably, he does seem over priced while Rampage is lot better value. Went with Rampage over Glover for this one.

1u on DJ@1.47
1u on Rampage@3.76. Odds had just changed so sweet value.
1u on Glover-Rampage not going the distance@1.735.
2u on Pettis@1.813
1u on Koch@1.65

Plus I think Rampage will want to prove a point on the way out of UFC. He looked good to go at the weigh ins so definitely worth getting a bit in on him.

I so hope Guida loses, that guy irritates me as hell. Just get up on the scale ffs, I didn't come to watch u dance like a energizer bunny.
I also never got why people think he's exciting, or he has that mantra about him, he just runs around, takes guys down without trying to finish them but only score points by staying in ppls guards and doing the least amount of dmg so they dont get stood up. I respect ppl more when they are honest about what thy are doing, but he comes across like he likes to stand and bang.

Ya I'm gonna be honest I hate watching Guida fight. He has had some amazing fights over the years (vs Sanchez comes to mind) but I feel like the more MMA I watch and the more of a critical eye I get WRT fighter skills...the more unimpressed I get with his skillset.

Got a big parlay on jonhson glover and reem, plays on pettis, llamas, hyoki, and other longshot parlays

Thoughts on Vlad vs Bader as a underdog bet on Vlad(no value on Bader what so ever)? Bader is overrated and Vlad will have an advantage in the striking department except for power. Interesting is if Bader can takedown Matuyshenko, if he can't and Vlad doesn't do anything stupid he can pull off a SD or unam.
Bader hasn't really impressed me in any of his fights where his opponent has decent TDD, even his fight vs Rampage I wasn't impressed bc Rampage was injured and I think anyone decently competent would have taken Rampage that night with Baders gameplan. If the rampage that showed up against Jon Jones(shape and without injury's) I think the fight would have looked a lot different.

Vlad is kind of done i think.. looks old and slow. no bet for me. if i did it would be some kind of prop bader inside the distance

This, I don't even think Bader will be looking to shoot. Vlad's chin is even worse than his at this point.

Think the betting line for ITD is out of whack at -140 or whatever, I mean Bader's usually finishing when he wins this right?

Same, I think there is value on Rampage. He's been in enough battles, looks terrible vs wrestlers and if Glover is really showing up to bang. Rampage has a punchers chance. Would bet him on any parlay but for a single bet, the line looks OK for Rampage.