You can't discount herman being a complete ****** and falling into a sub. I would say herman wins here a big percentage of the time though, struve is just a stinker.

bendo/edgar fight is going to be sick I have no ****ing clue who wins this.

Mo I really like the analysis in your 3rd paragraph, def need to back and look at some kid yamamoto.

Diaz/Condit was great, I just think a lot of us were expecting a 5 round smash'em ups instead of condit utilizing a gameplan to nullify the trap and brawl style of diaz. Now if only guillard would ****ing comply with something he would be smashing fools to bits on his way to contendership instead of heading to the back of the pack to fight up and coming cans.

Thoughts on this card?

mlane you are spot on with how ridiculously disappointed people were in the Condit/Diaz fight. It didn't look like people imagined but that was a tense, fun fight to watch IMO. Reminded me a bit of Shogun vs Machida.

Yeah Struve could definitely beat Herman but I just think Struve is so bad...even in his wins he gets knocked down by everyone, even cans like Morecraft.

Bendo is just a physical beast and I think he'll be able to work some takedowns on Edgar and win rounds with that beastly GnP. Not 100% sure on this fight yet though.

Ellenberger should be a lock. Sanchez has no real edges on him that I see.

yeh, im considering vegas to bet him

saying condit runs away for 25 mins and shouldnt be champ is like saying floyd mayweather should never have a belt because he fights defensively

such bull****

especially the rousey comment

the fight actually reminded me of Pacquiao vs. Marquez 3 this November. Same arguments were made for Pac then as are made for Diaz now.

except pacquiao actually won when he shouldve lost 100%

On the top of my head, Herman via TKO/KO. Not 100% sure though and will have to wait for other input. Herman has decent striking and a good chin whilst Struve has ****ty striking and a questionable chin. I really don't see Struve having the advantage anywhere, and even if it goes to the ground, Herman will fend off the submission attempts.

also that fight is not going the distance, that's free money just there. Herman has only went the distance in one of his fights, same as struve and combined with struves weak chin and inability to keep the distance, he's going to get TKO by Herman.

Don't discount herman ****** factor though.

Iirc it was herman who said after his last fight something along the lines of that bjj doesnt work against him??? regardless of how silly that sounds i think its fair to say he must at least have solid sub defence??

With that in mind Im quite happy to put a unit on herman at -105 as i think hel ko struve quite abit probably be able to survive from top position against struve if he does take him down....

Is there a full fight video floating around somewhere?

Sanchez is being overlooked. Ellenberger wins over half but i'm staying away. Remember, Ellenberger lost to Condit and was losing badly to Carlos Eduardo Rocha for the whole first round. He caught Shields, sure, and he's very good, and deserves to be a favourite but i'm staying away from that fight and may even bet Sanchez if he gets to +300, Diego can definitely win a decision.

Struve is CONSTANTLY underrated by people. I honestly think he's about the #18 HW in the world right now. Sure his chin sucks, and his striking defense sucks, but he has some of the best subs in the division, reasonable power and a long reach that he's going to learn to use better and better with each fight. He stood with Barry for a while and didn't get KO'd and Pat Barry is a better striker than Dave Herman. I'd have Herman at about 20-22 FWIW and I think Struve wins maybe 55% of the time here. I'm going to bet Struve if I can get him as a reasonable dog (or Herman if the line moves far enough that way), or stay away from the fight at evens.

Struve doesn't use his reach very good at all and whilst he's getting better everytime, like every fighter(until they pass a certain age), he's not going to have improved so much that he's going to be a new fighter when he faces Herman. He stood with Barry and was losing the standup and only defeated Barry because he has the worst ground game in the HW division. His only chance is submitting Herman which does not seem that likely as Herman has a decent submission game himself.

Also, you can't say something like he stood with Pat Barry and Barry didn't knock him out so surely Herman isn't going to knock him out. Do you think Roy Nelson has better standup than Barry, how about Travis Browne? No, Pat Barry would most likely own both of them in a strictly K1 fight because he's the better technical and more powerful fighter. You can't do mma math like that.

don't discount the struve ****** factor either. A man that's 9 feet tall shouldn't fight as if hes 4 feet tall.

Pretty much this, and Struve is NOT underrated lol, I've already broken down exactly why he's "rated" where he is by most people (bad to slightly below average HW by UFC standards)...because that's what his record says he is.

Struve is a good submission grappler but that's his only above average skill.

Ellenberger's fight with Condit should have been a draw, bad judges didn't score him a 10-8 first when he was clobbering Condit. I want to know how anyone backing Sanchez thinks he will beat Ellenberger. You say he can "definitely win a decision" but how will he win said decision?

His most likely en route to win is to garcia him somehow.

Thank YOU for providing me the opportunity to completely crush your pathetic argument using actual facts and evidence. Here are some more.

Straight from the unified rules:

4) “Effective Aggressiveness”: Moving forward or backwards, but setting the tempo of the contest while effectively scoring with legal strikes, takedowns, and submissions while blocking the opponents counters.

Notice the second part of that...WHILE EFFECTIVELY SCORING WITH LEGAL STRIKES ETC. WHILE BLOCKING THE OPPONENT'S COUNTERS. It's already been established that Condit outdid Diaz in these areas. More importantly, notice the first part..."moving forward or backwards, but setting the tempo of the contest..." Nowhere does it say barreling forward into strikes constitutes effective aggression.

By these parameters, Condit clearly had more effective aggression since he determined the tempo of the contest while moving and scoring with more legal strikes and blocking more of his opponent's.

3) “Octagon Control”: Dictating the pace, location and position of the contest using the following maneuvers:

a) Countering a grappler’s attempt at takedown to remain standing and legally striking effectively;
b) Taking down an opponent to force a ground fight;
c) Creating threatening submission attempts pass the guard to achieve mount, while on the ground;
d) Creating striking opportunities, while on the ground.

Who dictated the pace of the bout? Clearly Condit since he wanted a tactical striking battle, which we got, and not a firefight, which Diaz wanted. Who dictated the location/position of the bout? Clearly Condit, since he wanted to fight in the center while Diaz wanted to fight with Condit's back against the fence. Therefore, Condit wins Octagon Control as well.

Who won striking? Condit. Who won aggression? Condit. Who won Octagon Control? Condit.

Who deservedly won the fight? Condit. GG.

Bad to slightly below average on his record? He's 6-3 in the UFC. A bad to slightly below average fighter would be something like 4-5 in the UFC assuming a wide range of opponents (which is what he's had, top guy in JDS, a few above average guys and a few bottom tier HWs). Granted he's looked bad in some fights he's won but he's got the job done. I'm not saying I think he'd beat a top 10 HW, but I do think he can beat Dave Herman, who is overrated in my opinion. It's equally a bet against Herman than a bet on Struve here (if I decide to make the bet, which I haven't yet)

...and the same way he won a decision against Kampmann, aggression, land punches, keep it standing, don't get knocked out. Don't get me wrong I think Ellenberger will win over half time time, I just might put an odds play down if Sanchez hits +300 or better. I've only seen Condit/Ellenberger once, so would have to rewatch before I could comment on that fight. The Rocha fight haunts me on Ellenberger hype, he almost lost to a guy that isn't even top 20. He can definitely lose two rounds to Sanchez, I don't think he's a favourite to but I think if Sanchez hits +300 there's value because Diego is good but not elite, and while Ellenberger is better, he isn't THAT much better.

speculations of the line movement with Alexander Gustafsson vs (Lil Nog) Antonio Rogerio Nogueira?

Gustafsson -250 atm

i think it's quite accurate. Possibly some value on Gustafsson, definitely not on lil-nog.

Anyone know if UFC will bring their own judges or if the swedish mma commission will put their judges in? If so nog can't win a decision. Been a lot of shady judging on superior challenge in favor of hometown fighters. At one time the judge was the manager of the fighter.

Really? I'm usually a lil'nog hater and I like his side at +210 or whatever he's at right now, although not enough to bet it. Close to accurate imo, Gustaffson probably wins about 2 in 3 times and he does have hometown advantage

yeah i have a feeling people are starting to overhype gustafsson

hes nothing spectacular

Hes for sure one of the best strikers in the division, his sprawl is great and his footwork excellent.

His offensive wrestling is meh and his bjj is probably still meh.

I don't see how Nog beats him though. Nog won't get him to the ground i don't think and on the feet i feel Alex is way too powerful and honestly a better technical striker as well.

Nog can test his chin i guess? He could also get some weird trip and really punish him on the ground if hes on top.'

Nogueira is slipping in my opinion. He hasn't had a good performance in a long time, and I'm not going to qualify the Ortiz win as such. Ortiz looked absolutely horrible.

Only terrible judging allowed him to beat Kampmann. It was obvious to anyone with two working eyes that MK won that fight. And if it stays standing, Sanchez is most likely going to get slept. Ellenberger might hit harder than anyone in MMA pound for pound. Sanchez has been really inconsistent lately so it's hard to say how he will look (looked horrific in a couple of his fights, decent against Kampmann). If he brings his A game, he still loses IMO but it might be close. The only way I see him winning is if he can get TD's against Ellenberger. Ellenberger has had trouble with solid wrestlers like Rick Story but I don't see Sanchez's wrestling as good enough to threaten. I will be extremely surprised if Ellenberger loses.

The Rocha fight is completely irrelevant to almost any matchup. Ellenberger didn't want to go to the ground against Rocha after getting schooled in the first (rightly so) so he was afraid to commit on the feet and get put in a bad grappling position. It was extremely similar to Overeem's hesitance against Werdum.

I already broke down why Struve's record says nothing about his ability as a fighter. Of his 6 wins, 2 are vs people still in the UFC (that's IF Morecraft gets another fight). He beats regional-level fighters and loses to basically anyone who is UFC caliber. Yes, that's indicator that a fighter is bad to below average in terms of UFC competitiveness.

I definitely favor Gustafsson pretty strongly against Nog. On paper, it's a good matchup because they both have solid standup and Nog has an edge in grappling. But the big problem I've been noticing when I watch Nog fight is he has ZERO head movement. That is going to spell absolute disaster when the Swede starts throwing hands at him.