I'll set the line at 2.5

If I had to pick a number, 3, with Overeem, Fitch or Rashad being the person getting injured/otherwise pulling out

Really loving the price on Wiman and Pettis right now. Both prices seem to be getting better too for some reason. Wiman has been more impressively in his wins than Grant imo and Pettis should be able to pick Cerrone apart standing and if Guillard hurt Cerrone badly, Pettis may even be able to finish him. Def going to bet Pettis and Wiman and may also take Pettis Inside Distance if the odds are good enough

Thoughts on G-Sot/Pearson anyone? Obviously if Pearson connects on his chin he'll be out, but if not G-Sot should eventually get it to the ground and tap him pretty easily. Hopefully G-Sot has been working on his striking defense and clinch/trip takedowns.

I'll definitely make a small odds play on Forrest if he stays above the +310 region he's at now assuming he looks decent at weighins etc closer to fight day

Machida seems like a snap bet at -200ish vs Hendo. Hendo simply won't be able to connect on him imo, obviously if he can land an H-Bomb he can win but if he can't, he has no path to victory, since Machida will either pick him apart from range or catch him coming in like he did against Bader.

I also like Machida at -200, as I think he wins at least 70% of the time. For that fight I think the spots with the most value will end up being Machida by decision and fight goes to decision. I see it going to the judges 75-80% of the time.

By now I'm sure you realize you're on your own with Forrest :-)

Machida by decision or Hendo by KO/decision. Not entirely out of the world he loses like he did vs Rampage. But I really like Machida here, way too technical and moves to well to allow himself getting KO'd/TKO'd a big % of the time and he isn't getting take down by Hendo either.

Of course. I don't expect him to win, but he's a +310 dog he's not supposed to win. I just think the true line is in the -2xx/+2xx region. It won't be a big play obviously.

Machida by dec all day, though if he decided to take Hendo down he could probably sub him too.

I like G Sot against Pearson, and I don't see Pearson knocking out clean. He just doesn't have the pop IMO.

I'd lean Wiman against Grant but it's tough to call. The lack of fight IQ he showed against Sass was concerning. Why so willing to roll around with a guy whose only strength is his subs?

Shut your mouth.

No ****, I bought tickets to 137 last October for GSP/Diaz and Penn/Condit and the very next day Georges pulled out, ruining both fights. Brutal.

This is where Super Bowl weekend comes into play for sure. If my football team makes it (8-4), I'll be so hammered the entire weekend I probably won't remember anything anyway.

Yah I'm aware of all that, and that's precisely what I was referring to....that you seem to be the only one here that thinks the likelihood of Forrest winning coupled with the current odds being offered dictate a bet on Forrest. Sorry if I wasn't very clear, wasn't trying to say you thought he was the favorite.

Man, I really hope BJ Penn wins. He seems genuinely interested in taking it seriously with his training. But I'm afraid that he's going to get LnP on by Rory or even busted up.

anybody think the bendo line is off? he's a smart fighter, and knows that the path to victory against nate is to chop his legs and take him down and blanket his way to a victory. he knows nate is dangerous from the bottom and has the bjj defense to counter it. i see a frustrated diaz losing a decision here as often as 60% and probably getting finished another 15%. so seems like the bendo line oughta be more like -300, shouldnt it?

diaz has a +6 reach adv, +3 height, and better bjj, but i just dont think it will be enough to give him more than a 25% or so chance to outpoint him with the stockton slap or drill a miraculous sub 2 outer? can anyone convince me otherwise?

As big of a Diaz fan I am here I agree, this is one of the worst matches for Diaz at LW, I'm actually think of betting small on it even though I want to cheer on Diaz .

I'm a huge Penn fan and I'm here to tell you all to stay the **** away. Ever since Edgar 2010 he has been a betting nightmare. Just don't do it until he wins. For serious.

I'm surprised there isn't more love for Gustafsson. He's going to crush Shogun and imo this is going to be one of those lines where we reflect and go "damn can you believe he was only -225..."

Betting Bendo but as previously stated, wouldn't consider a Diaz sub to be a "miracle." Henderson gives up subs and Diaz is very good at finishing that guillotine.

Still, stylistically it is too good of a matchup for Henderson to pass for me. Plus, there's the factor that judges love him.

Bendo by UD is back up to +195. Added two more units.

and what about shogun? the line is approaching +200 on him, and if he's healthy and motivated, i think it's a solid value play. even though he's 2-2 in his last 4, i scored his foty vs hendo to be a draw. the other loss was to the guy everyone loses to. and before that he arguably beat the dragon twice in a row - in devastating fashion the 2nd time.

The mauler has looked great against soso competition, but he got owned by the only top tier guy he's faced. That was awhile ago, but most recently he still couldnt put thiago away. Shogun could just be on a diff level than anyone he's faced.

Then again, if rua has a bum knee and is just looking to retire after getting this paycheck, alex will wipe the floor with him and even -250 is a great price.

what we need here is some information.

100%agree with Gus being great at -225.. I don't see shogun winning this fight, don't see him subbing Gus, or winning dec.. So unless he KO's him some how Gus wins. Think I would be betting this all the way down to -315, this is great value.

Who knows though, maybe I've hopped to far on the hype. Train

Look at the way their standup matches up though. Shogun's movement is gone, Alex has that great jab, and he's already shown the fight IQ to outpoint hard hitting brawlers before. Think Shogun gets picked apart en route to a 30-27 here.

Shogun is indeed the toughest fighter to date in the striking department he will face. But comparing that fight with the Davis fight is pretty non-relevant since he was facing top of the top wrestling fighter. This was also very early in his UFC career, he went to team alliance and started really training and advancing his game with other well known fighters and Davis himself.

He's actually run through all of his fights other than the Davis fight, in which he was actually doing pretty okey till he got subbed. The Thiago Silva fight, can't really blame him for not finishing it. It was in his home town, I think he just wanted to win that one, didn't really care if it was finish or unam. I mean look at his record, he has all but one finishes with his wins(even against fighters who rarely get finished). He also utilized very good movement against a brawler type of fighter in Silva.

With all that said, he's facing shogun, the master of creating chaos fights in which he thrives. I think we're going to see a similar fight to the Thiago Silva one, Gustafsson will run around and try to pick shogun apart, Shogun will(if his knee's are healthy) try to utilize kicks to slow him down and cut him off and/or take him down. I actually think he's going to do pretty much the same thing he did in the Brandon Vera fight, try to take Gustafsson down, but he won't be able to do it due to Gustafssons movement and ok TDD. If he's 100% healthy though, I expect this to be very close.
It's just that I personally don't buy the title talk, about him getting that title back from Jones. I may be completely off though.

so, what you're saying is - all things considered, it could be quite close, and thus, shogun +190 is a very sound price? (assuming his knee is ok)

this is certainly one possible outcome.

Yes, if it's a well trained, old school style shogun healthy. Question is, what are the odds of that happening? In all of his recent fights, he rarely kicks the same as he used to. His 1st fight against Machida was bascially the only time I remember him using the kicks as often as he should, but that's only bc he's been hurt that he hasnt been able to use them.

Yeah, i'm aware of that. I was also the only one who liked several other of my successful dog picks though so it doesn't bother me too much to go against the crowd on this one. If I was against the crowd on a fav or at evens it would bother me a lot more. I'm probably only going to have 0.5u or so on him as an odds play, haven't bet anything yet.

Gustaffson will wreck Shogun unless Shogun is in peak physical shape and i've learned not to bet on that (but haven't learned not to bet on Penn apparently). I think Penn upsets Rory more than Shogun catches Gus standing for the KO if we're looking for a dog on the main card.

Struve vs Hunt announced for the next Japan card... if Struve is at evens like last time they were scheduled to fight i'll be on him heavily again or a bit lighter up to -190 or so. I'd expect Struve to be more like -130 this time though since he's had a couple wins since and will me on him for a medium amount at that price, but Hunt hasn't had any losses since so who knows. I think the true line is Struve -200 or so - Hunt is dangerous but Struve's striking is better than it used to be and if it goes to the ground for more than 15 seconds, Hunt is getting tapped or ground and pounded. He can win, but only by putting Struve out with a single shot (even knocking Struve down if he follows him down for GNP he'll get triangled or swept a lot). I'd say the fight ends with Hunt by KO one in three times, Struve by Sub a bit over 1 in 3 times and Struve by TKO most of the rest of the time.

Struve won't beat anyone top 5, but he's definitely lower top 10 these days imo. Hunt is too one dimensional to beat him over half the time although obviously Hunt has a puncher's chance against anyone. Clearly fight to finish inside distance is a bet at pretty much any price too. I'd bet it at -500 even.

If Struve gets through Hunt, they had better give him Mir or Werdum afterwards. Both would be epic fights imo (I think he can probably beat Mir now close to half the time, but Werdum would be favoured over him)

Bader/Matyushenko made too, I expect Bader to connect with his harder hands and put the Janitor out, Bader wants it more and is closer to his physical prime and other than that they're similar fighters. I'd say Bader to -200 or so.

Struve by TKO? I assume you mean via GnP. Struve will give Hunt a huge number of chances to land shots - his control of range and his jab are both so sloppy and Hunt will be very, very comfortable striking with Struve. Struve's wrestling is also pretty weak and Hunt avoided TD's from Rothwell, so it may well come down to striking.

And I like Hunt a lot if it comes down to striking.


I like Diaz a lot vs Bendo; while Bendo has cardio for days, a decent kicking game and good wrestling, his top control hasn't been great and he has been hit a good amount by Pettis and Edgar. Diaz's reach and ability to dictate range should make this a very hard fight for Bendo.

I don't think Bendo can finish Diaz, while Diaz can definitely win 3 rounds, sub Bendo or finish him standing.

Pretty much agree everything on Hunt Struve, with the only exception I think Hunt will stay out of struves guard, even if he rocks him just a bit. Also he's not as "hot headed" as Pat Barry is, he's more calm and collected and isn't going make any hasty decision like Barry. I am very impressed by Struves 2nd rounds btw, shows a lot better composure than before.
If I was in Struves corner, I'd tell him to tie up with Hunt and try to trip him or somehow get him to the ground, bc most of Hunts losses have come due to submission and Struve ldo has an awesome sub game.