This fight should be sick. Prob one of the best fights in Bellator this year.

Koreshkov striking confirmed levels above, as I expected. He did look winded and I thought he might lose when Lyman got that td in the third, but he fought very smart. Was hoping for Good to keep it striking all the way but he fought like he should too and went for clinches when he found out he was outclassed.

3-1, +1.328u

Overall 39-25-0, 109.5u bet, +6.847u, 6.3% ROI

Not much to say really. Wish I'd got a better price on Koreshkov but what can you do. Guess the Tapology crowd were right about Marshall :P

word

long long long shot. Anyway, Cerrone acknowledge his bad gameplanning and I think he's actually going to gameplan a lot better this time around.

I'm betting Diaz over Bendo. Anyone have any thoughts on whether I'll get better than +141 later on?

I'm also betting Gustafsson and MacDonald and have my money on already. Gustafsson is a 2-star play, the others 1-star.

What's is going to matter? Pettis is better on the feet and I don't think Cerrone has good enough takedowns to outgrapple him.

@ChrisV I would think money will come in on Bendo slightly but IDK, Diazes have a lot of fan support so who knows...

Usually favorites shorten as the fight approaches which is why I've taken Gustafsson and MacDonald and left Diaz, but there are exceptions.

I haven't bet any of them yet. See how BJ looks at weighins I guess if he looks good enough I might go at +250 if his cardio can last he can beat Rory. Why do you like Diaz over Bendo, database or something you've seen in their fights? Logically it would seem like the striking is close with a marginal lean to Diaz, but with 5 rounds for Bendo to get takedowns and wear him out with his more well rounded game it seems like Bendo should logically win a lot. Judges love him too for some reason.

Logically, everything points to Bendo outscoring Diaz. Diaz has better hands and better submissions, but Bendo's submission defense is top notch and he has the takedowns to grind out a decision + his kicks are going to be a major part of his gameplan, and now he doesn't even have to worry about getting taken down really. I really see Diaz getting chopped down with leg kicks, getting taken down and he will be close to some submissions and then lose a unam decision pretty much.

I'm going with Penn at +250 but I've run terribly with underdogs this year......

GL

Yeah just DB Swoop, mostly it's the height advantage is nice. 3 inches is right in the butter zone (less and it doesn't matter, more and you're sacrificing muscle mass to make weight - or so my theory goes, anyway).

Pettis has actually lengthened since earlier discussion, so I guess wait to bet him? He'll be a 2-star play for me.

A little surprised to see everybody on Pettis. Cerrone beat the piss out of Jeremy Stephens, Pettis barely won a decision. Pettis is overrated imo.

I think Pettis "barely won" that fight because he was coming off his loss to Clay Guida, and thus came in with a very safe and conservative gameplan, as he couldn't afford to drop his first two UFC fights. If he were to fight Stevens again and open up some and let his hands fly, we'd see an ass-beating a large portion of the time.

I'm on Pettis against Cerrone, and I've already got a few units on him at current prices. I think his line will plateau where it's at now, and then start to get worse. If I'm wrong and it goes all the way to something crazy like +150 I'll add more, but I think were he's at now is as good as its going to get.

Hmm, Pettis is at +109 on Pinn... bet now or wait I wonder...

I've faded Pettis and bet Cowboy a bunch in their UFC runs but I like Pettis a lot here. I just feel he matches up well.

I quite like Wiman at -105 too given TJ doesn't have the Canadian judges to rely on to give 30-27s outside of Canada... Wiman getting a win over Sass was very impressive. With a smart gameplan, he should win.

Also Forrest at +305 is very tempting in a 3 round fight - sure, Davis via LNP is most likely but if the fight stays standing for any portion of it, Davis doesn't like being hit and Forrest is a volume puncher. It all comes down to whether Forrest can stop the shot a reasonable percentage of the time and while clearly Davis wins a lot more than Forrest, +305 is very tempting. He looked bad vs Tito but he did still win.

all bendo will do is hold him down he doesnt want a fight.

Forrest at +300 isn't tempting at all if u ask me. He's not going to be able to stuff Davis takedowns and he's at the end of his career with nothing really to fight for vs a hungry up and comer who's training his ass off and has a bright future in the UFC(albet never a champion bc you can't be just an awesome wrestler and win in todays climate).
Forrest hasn't really displayed a KO power or any sorts of strikes to really put someone done in his UFC career. His prior wins were because of his heart and grinding ability, he won 2 fights where he shouldn't really won if both of them came in trained and injury free(rampage n shogun).
Basically Forrests biggest asset was his grinding and overwhelming ability(from what I've gathered), but he's never going to beat some top notch fighter who's specialized in either striking or wrestling, unless they come unmotivated and/or untrained, then he'll be able to use his assets to beat you. Davis is simply not that guy, that's going to come in untrained. In a fight where Forrest doesn't have the KO power(like the franklin cung lee fight, where even if franklin was a big favorite, lee still had that KO chance bc it was going to be a standup) and Davis is going to try take Forrest down, it's as easy as it comes imo. I'd go for unam decision or submission win for davis.

Actually my main concern in this fight is Henderson giving up the guillotine. He has good sub defense in that he survives sub attempts but he also gives them up a lot. Diaz guillotining him wouldn't surprise me at all. I am on the leg kicks/takedown to decision school of thought here though.

100% with Swiiftx on Griffin. He will be on his back this whole fight. Wouldn't shock me if he got subbed either, Davis has a helluva sub game. I don't know if Forrest is physically shot yet, but mentally he sure seems to be.

Pettis fought safely against Stephens because after Guida "beat" him (god I can't even say that with a straight face...zero offense), he was afraid Stephens would try to do the same thing. Looking at the way their styles match up, it's hard to see this playing out anywhere but the feet and Cerrone's striking defense is simply atrocious. He has an absolutely phenomenal chin, but the fact that it's always on display is all you need to know. I just don't think he's going to get away with that against a striker as elite as Anthony Pettis.

Yeah, no one is 100% submission proof and especially if you expose yourself to someone like Diaz, you're in ****loads of trouble. It's just that I think Bendo showed very resiliant sub defense in some of his matches and because I read something after he won vs edgar first time, he str8 went to bjj tournaments and competed. Something I've seen in ufc fights usually is that when 2 fighters of about equal skill in bjj face off, no one gets subbed, especially with gloves on.

Does anyone know why Cerrone wants to fight Pettis so badly?

Maurício Rua +160 good pick?

He's going to sleep, he dosent have the gas tank to deal with Gus. Gus is going to mess him up standing and quite possibly finish with a sub.

Gus is not finishing Shogun. I see this looking a lot like the Silva/Gus fight.

If Bendo leaves his neck out like he was doing with Edgar, it could be a short night for bendo. Hope BJ and Shogun can pull off the upsets.

Just got tickets for 156 on Super Bowl weekend in Vegas. Aldo/Edgar, Overeem/Bigfoot, Rashad/Lil Nog, Fitch/Maia..

Banger.

You can get Shogun at a better price than that on almost all the books that list it.

I put 1u on Shogun a while ago at +180, and I don't feel great about it.

O/U on how many of those fights actually happen at that card tho?