am i wrong to think that there is alot of value on kim? i mean he's not one of the more amazing fighters, but he has taken out a few top 10 fighters and alot of top 20, and if you take out the freak loss to mia he has only lost 1 fight in the ufc (not counting his NC) and that is to condit

thiago on the other hand hasn't done anything to impress at all over the last few years. his last big win was vs swick when he tapped him out (which even though impressive, swick isn't much of a champ himself) and that was back in early 2010.

i don't see kim losing this fight.

Jeez, the Jon Tuck line sure has been brutalised.

Yikes, Caceres too. At those prices...fade the steam?

@yoyobo I like Kim as well, think I'll be betting him. I just don't see any real edges for Thiago here besides BJJ, and that shouldnt be near enough to win him a fight against a guy with a top game as solid as Kim.

Meh I did call the Caceres/Tuck lines amazing at -135, dumb of me not to have funds on the first book to open lines.

Sportsbook seems to consistently drop the opening lines first.

Just have to wait for props now, though I did play DHK today for 1u.

fml all of the value on this card is disappearing - I loved franklin/tsilva/tuck/caceres opening lines, so they all get brutalised before i bet them because everyone else likes them too

just gonna wait and see what the odds are on fight day now probably i guess

I think this might be a favourites card, I don't see too many upsets tbh

Ya I'm on Franklin, Danzig, and Kim, everyone else has been pounded so hard.

Lineker -125 tho? He was supposed to be a big time talent with epic power for a flyweight and Benavidez KO'd Uru****ani rather easily.

No discussion of bellator lines tomorrow?

I had meant to post bellator stuff and got caught up. Volkov a 1 star play at 1.5 ish for 1u. Cooper a 2 star play at 1.143 ish for 3u and best bet for the weekend. UFC plays tomorrow.

Some props out but nothing really looks any good besides maybe Kim by dec -145.

Fukuda/Tuck/Caceres parlay at about +140.

So to review:

Above parlay
Danzig/Franklin parlay
Franklin ITD 1/2 unit
DHK -240

Not many plays this weekend. Looking ahead, didn't realize the GSP card was next week. Examining some lines, GSP by decision around -140 has to be the most intriguing bet for me. The style matchup is simply fantastic for him. Costa Philippou -240 interests me as well, mainly because Nick Ring just doesn't do much for me. Every time I watch him, he just kinda mills around the cage and lets his opponent decide how the fight is going to play out. Against a heavy-handed and accurate puncher like Costa, that's just not gonna work out for him, though we always have to fear judges when it comes to Nick Ring. Diabate and Steve Siler are also definitely on my radar. If they open at any sort of reasonable line, I'll be looking to play them.

God damn it. All the UFC lines I like are getting smashed and aside from Franklin I'd only got money down on one fight, on Hyun Gyu Lim over David Mitchell and that fight has now been called off.

Macau bets:
Franklin ITD 8u @ -113
Franklin 2/3u @ -300
Franklin/Le ITD 2u @ -230
Thiago/Nedkov ITD 3u @ -195
Mac Danzig 1u @ -215
Danzig/Gomi ITD 1.5u @ -135
John Tuck 3u @-175

Posting now because I'm not planning on adding much more. As everyone else has said, most of the value has been sucked out of the lines. Very happy with what I have though, I was lucky to get in early on a lot of these lines.

To date:

Total: 31-18-0, 88.5u bet, +7.956u, 9% ROI
Best Bets: 6-2-0, 20u bet, +6.243u, 31.2% ROI
3-Star Plays: 3-1-0, 11u bet, +3.37u, 30.6% ROI
2-Star Plays: 13-4-0, 40u bet, +8.959u, 22.4% ROI
1-Star Plays: 15-13-0, 37.5u bet, -4.373u, -11.7% ROI
UFC: 19-15-0, 62u bet, -0.594u, -0.96% ROI
Non-UFC: 12-3-0, 26.5u bet, 8.55u, 32.26% ROI

UFC plays for this weekend, all 1-star:

Franklin v Le: 2u @ ??? (1u bet @ 1.337 so far)
Tuck v Zhang: 2u @ ??? (1u bet @ 1.44 so far)
Lineker v Urucensoredani: 1u @ 1.755
Mizugaki v Hougland: 2u @ 1.228

Tuck was going to be a 2-star play but the line has been beaten in so much that I've demoted him.

I've only got 1u down on each of the 2u bets on Franklin and Tuck so far. Tuck I was able to find at 1.44 still which was awesome (at 888sport) but I'm maxed out there now and there's no other good prices I can get money down at. Similar story for Franklin. I'm hoping the lines will improve on the day when Asian maniacs start getting money down, especially for Tuck since his opponent Zhang is Chinese. Less hopeful of some sort of pan-Asian nationalism getting behind Le, but I don't think there's a lot of downside in waiting at this point.

I've also got like 1/6th of a unit on Franklin by decision @ 7.79, don't really see why that's so long. Both fighters are pretty old and may tire quickly so I'm not sure why people think a decision win is so outlandish an idea.

Best bet for the weekend was Cooper today which won as did Volkov, Bellator continues to go well. You know 2-star plays are going well when winning one reduces your ROI.

Met Rick Hawn from Bellator last weekend, he's huge for 155 (I'm 200 and he seemed similar to me in size).

Will be betting heavy on him next fight, doesn't mean he's a lock I'm just a sucker for Judo in MMA

My write up for the Macao event has been up on CCB for a couple of days now, but haven't really been around too much on the forums other than a bit of lurking on my Blackberry. Like most of you I didn't get to any of the lines in time for any heavy plays and a lot of the value is gone, but I don't see many of the underdogs pulling off the upset, so I'm going to do what the squares did in the NFL last week... PARLAY to VICTORY!!!

1 unit - Mizugaki/Caceres/Fukuda
1 unit - Franklin/T.Silva/DHK/Danzig
0.5 unit - Nedkov/Gomi -> lol flash KO's one time.
0.1 unit - Mizugaki/Caceres/Fukuda/Tuck/Franklin/T.Silva/DHK/Danzig -> Someone in the NFL thread last week almost nailed like a twelve teamer, hitting an eight fight parlay shouldn't be that tough.

Like I said, most of the value is gone, so this is just pure degen for degenerates sake.

Franklin fight could def go to decision, I just think a finish is more likely. I'm glad I got on Franklin ITD early when it was -140, heard it's like -250 now.

Obv a finish is more likely.

Doesn't look like their age has anything to do with it, I was guessing that decisions would get more frequent with older fighters but I just had a look in my database and this is not the case. If anything the reverse is true.

Nonetheless the current odds suggest that Franklin is 5 times more likely to win ITD than by decision and this seems optimistic to me considering the last two Franklin fights and Cung Le's last fight all ended in decisions.

Am I wrong in thinking that Danzig is a lock.

GOmi last couple of performances were terrible. He hasn't looked good since 2005. Danzig has improved significantly over his tenure in the UFC. And Danzig also didnt look bad at all in his loss to Wiman. And as we know now losing a close fight to Wiman is nothing to be ashamed of...some thought Danzig won the first two rounds.

Basically, Gomi is quasi-washed up and one dimensional

Love Danzig. Gomi looks like he doesn't even care any more.

Hopefully I can get up for the fights, I think the first is like at 6am my time.

I think alot of people are underestimating the bulgarian monster. Nedkov is going to beast up.

If there's anywhere I see a upset it's that match actually. It's 2 big LHW fighting and a big chance someone is getting KO'd. Reason why ppl "underestimate" nedkov is because he didn't look good in his last ufc fight bar the KO.

I went full sleep-deprived degen on this card, I almost don't even want to watch because I have too much on it lmao


That being said, I love Ace by Decision +600, have like 5% of my bankroll on that, most of the other 95% is on Ace at -300 from earlier. Did I mention I'm wasted and sleep deprived? Ware Franklin!


If Rich + Danzig both lose, see you guys in a year when I have enough recreation/fun money to have a decent bankroll again!

Unfortunately the card starts at 1am here, so I'm not going to be able to watch any of it and I won't be around to see if there's a comeback in the Tuck or Franklin prices. I'm not betting more on the ridiculously short current prices, so I'm going to leave it as is, so official results will be with 1u bets on Franklin and Tuck.

Tuck 1.44 can still be had at 888sport, btw. Won't let me personally bet more though.

They almost hit a 12 teamer, on the one week in the history of the past 25 years of NFL where ever square play/favourite hit. And despite that he still didn't hit it. Keep that in perspective.