Managed to catch a few of the fights being uploaded on youtube. What future do you guys see in organizations like WSOF being able to stream online and other avenues without relying on a few big names at the top of PPV cards to sell? I rather enjoy it and the more cutthroat UFC becomes at slicing their roster I could def see these organizations becoming decent outlets for fighters and fantastic for fans.

p.s. LOL at dave herman getting busted for weed again. I just want to put on the harry potter invisibility cloak and follow that guy around for a couple days.

Pretty good fights, terrible crowd.

My wife who knows nothing about fighting picked the winner of all main card fights based on the walk ins. She now thinks it's that easy

During the Olympics I remember being pretty convinced that I could tell whether weightlifters were going to succeed or fail at the lift based on their expressions walking out there. I never subjected myself to rigorous statistical analysis, though

Fighting is different since some guys walk out with a serious look of concentration and some stride out there hands raised like they're Muhammed Ali.

Arlovski, Anthony Johnson and Tyrone Sponge all should be in the UFC. As much fun it was watching all of them defeat 3 bums, it's not really competetive matches.

AJ is being punished for being a douche and trying to fight WWs while missing weight by ridiculous amounts, then moving to MW and missing weight again

He should only be allowed back if he fights at LHW where he actually belongs. Once you miss weight as much as he has you don't get the benefit of the doubt on cutting anymore

Agreed on the rest though, Arlovski's coming off a few wins (Sylvia was basically a win, Cole, etc) and Spong is a real prospect

Spong needs a fight with at least a mid level wrestler prior to the UFC.

They put him against a boxer and there's a reason he was -900 in his debut. I think at least 2 more fights are needed before we can really judge him.

Still good prospect hope he has the time to make an impact

if AJ returns then yeah, he should be in there as a LHW. It just seems UFC has so many bums, I mean they had ppl like Rob Broughton, Oli Thompson etc but I think the reason AA isnt there is prolly bc of the money or smth issue.

Tyrone Sponge has fought for a very long long time as kickboxer and competed against some top names in that sport and won. I mean, if he doesn't get signed by the ufc in his next 2-3 fights then IDK, feel like they are missing out on a great entertaining fighter. I think it's a lot harder to get his kickboxing record then do as some fighters that got into UFC, fight a couple of bums in different low MMA organisations and get a 8-1 record(Roger Hollett for instance, guy looked like **** vs Hamill). I mean, they could serve this guy 8-10 people like his first and get him a perfect 9-0 record, but I feel it's a waste of time. But yeah, would be interesting to see him vs a decent wrestler as you say.

I agree no need for 8-9 cans, but I feel at least one test of grappling is needed before he goes into the UFC.

He barely broke a sweat in that fight so hopefully they'll have him on the January card.

Would love to see sprong and machida. I think in the UFC's LHW division he could very well be top 10 if they give him a couple non grapplers then throw somebody like bader at him before he gets demolished by phil davis.

Bader is a pretty good wrestler himself

Some more lines out for UFC 154 and I don't like any of them. I wish the Le v Franklin undercard lines would come out already.

Costa is a better prospect than Ring but idk if he's that big of a fav - plus judges love Ring in close decisions. Disclaimer, I always think Costa will win when he loses and lose when he wins, so there's that.

Also, betting against Hominick is the stone cold nuts lately, although with another step down in competition he should finally win one. Maybe.

Kinda think G-Sot will tap Pearson too if his chin isn't shot. Pearson hasn't been the smartest fighter lately and while he has the skillset to beat GSot, I mean, outside of getting caught by RDA he's a top 20 LW so he should beat Pearson probably enough. Plus, home crowd advantage for mental state + judging if it goes to decision etc

Also, really doubt Lil'Nog beats Rashad but limited value at that price.

I also don't hate Dodson at +200 vs DJ honestly in a 5 rounder, he won't win a decision much but if someone gets the finish it'll be him. He does have the most power out of anyone at FLW other than Benavidez and he's slightly faster than Benavidez. Would cap it at more like +180 prob.

I'm pretty close to betting against Hominick. Garza is projected to be +4.5% ROI and I don't start betting until at least +5%. However he's also at 3.65 and I start totally excluding bets at 3.7 and up as big underdogs don't perform well, so being up close to the cutoff point weighs against him. Plus my 1-star plays haven't really been killing it, so I'm not going to stretch to bet him, but I may toss a small bet on if I'm bored.

The stat model fascinates me, wish I had the skills to design one myself. I mean, I do okay betting MMA based off 'feel' (basically, information as an educated fan who has watched a bunch of fights) so to speak but in poker terms I feel like i'm the live poker pro here playing off 'reads' and you're the online pro who plays optimally with the numbers to back it up.

What does the model have to say about JDS/Cain 2 out of curiousity? I'm quite liking JDS at -135 or whatever he is against any man alive tbh, even Cain.

Not sure I'd dignify it with the word model. I'm hardly analogous to an online pro, more like a badly written bot that beats up fish at SNGs with a robotic game plan.

I just had a look and like JDS in that matchup enough to call it a 2-star play.

I lean JDS there too but I can't shake the feeling that we got the worst possible Velasquez last time and maybe we are gonna see something totally dfferent.

Yeah I think Cain may land some offense this time but JDS can take it and will eventually land and put Cain out.

Maybe we'll get to see JDS famous ground game. If he sweeps and armbars Cain or triangles him or something I think Sherdog etc. might explode

I see Cain JDS as a 50/50, Cain was (allegedly) injured last time and looked great against Silva.

I expect to see a really competitive fight with Cain offering the best value of the two

Lines dropped.

Nothing looking too good tbh except Caceres -135 vs a random.

JDS is a lot more athletic and has better movement and TDD than Silva. I just can't shake the feeling that Cains chin is suspect.

Tuck and Cacares lines look good

Zhang is really bad and Tuck is an ADCC champ, and Caceres is a legit prospect who gets better every fight vs a total random

any reason for me not to degen on danzig and franklin?

I don't think there's much value on Danzig but it won't be -EV either, it's right on the cutoff of the bet/don't bet line, i'll probably end up on him for a degen play but it won't be big if I do.

Franklin should win easily. Go nuts there.

I love Danzig and Franklin.

Don't get me wrong, I think he'll win too - I just think he's probably only the fifth best value bet on the card (after Franklin, TSilva, Caceres and Tuck, although there may not be as much value on TSilva any more really he's been backed in a lot)