Lines for a few more fights on the Le/Franklin card are up. Nice work Swoop, you capped them all dead on.

Which sucks since it means no value, lol. So far rich is the only play but I havent bet him yet

Anyone know if they are using local judges or bringing them from US?

Don't be shocked at a kungfu home advantage to le on judges cards if they are locals.

that's worth considering, but unless it's outright corruption, i don't expect the fight to be close enough for a 'questionable' decision to go to le, it would have to be an outright robbery

Does anyone know the best sites for betting mma in the U.S. and Canada?

If you can bet in canada on pinnacle thats the answer. 5d is probably second best with same day odds.

bestfightodds.com compares the sportsbook prices check it out and see which ones have the best lines, then sign up to the accordingly assuming theyre legal in your jurasdiction

I could see Lee winning r1, r2 and then r3 being the closest and Ace winning r4,r5 and r3 being a tossup. He has an active standup game, has good TDD's and has real wrestling credentials with decent trips etc. Though I think this fight will be contested on the feet most of the time.

The only way Le wins multiple rounds is if he hurts Franklin BADLY in each of the first two rounds. Franklin's corner is good enough to instruct him to take Le down if he's losing the standup, and he shouldn't lose the standup in the first place outside of maybe the first two minutes as Le throws his flashy stuff before he slows down a bit

There's a really good chance Franklin finishes Le late as well if it goes deep, Le does not have cardio for days, Franklin does - unless he batters Franklin hard in the first three and inflicts serious damage (likely enough to cause a stoppage), Franklin will steamroll him in the later rounds

I think Franklin should win but I don't see him as good value at current odds.

Stylistically it's a good matchup for Le even if Franklin is the better overall fighter. Both guys are strikers who like to sit outside and pick their opponent apart. Le shines when guys keep distance with him and allow him to use his technical striking to full effect. Le struggles more against the bullrushers who get in his face. Wandy and Cote both had their best moments when they were rushing Le. When they weren't rushing him, Le was picking them apart. Rich really shines against the bullrush fighters, but that's not his style. Both guys are "matadors". Rich being a smart vet and better overall fighter can adjust his game much more than Le could. But if he plays his usual game I think that's good for Le.

I'm not recommending a play on Le, I'm just skeptical of Franklin's value. Le still has a lot going against him. He's old, previous cardio issues, less experienced, smaller. But going for him is he's a very good technical striker who should be able to hang with Franklin on the feet. He also has power and is capable of stopping Franklin. And the wrestling to keep it on it's feet.

If I'm going to bet on a guy who's in the -300 range, I want to feel like his opponent doesn't have a lot of likely paths to victory and I think Le does. For example, I'm much happier playing GSP in the -350 range because I see Condit's only way to win is to finish and I think a sub or KO are both pretty low %.

@Machinehead, you're not taking into account the differences in punching power and chin strength. Rich's chin isn't the greatest but it's better than Le's and he was way more power in his hands. Franklin ITD.

Nobody else loves Mac Danzig -225? Nedkov intrigues me at +250.

Just watched Cung on MMA Hour and the interview made me feel less optimistic about his chances. His foot still isn't 100% from last fight, he says it's 80% and "hoping" it's 100% by fight time. He was pressured into taking this fight sooner than he would've liked with his injury. He's also got a movie coming out and he said he did some 10 day media tour in China that exhausted him. The injury and the disruption in training aren't good signs.

Just fired on Franklin ITD -140 and Danzig/Franklin parlay at basically even monies.

just_mo, I think I've considered it but I don't see Rich's chin or power as "way" better than Cungs. I'd give Franklin a slight edge in both. Cung has been stopped twice but has never been put to sleep. He was stopped because he was getting destroyed and his face was bashed in. So he doesn't take damage well but he doesn't get put out either. Rich was put out by Vitor, and nearly put out by Wanderlei. But he also took an insane amount of damage from Anderson before getting stopped. Cung's "chin" is probably better but Rich definitely takes damage better than Cung. Rich also has shown the ability to come back from trouble and Cung hasn't.

Those are the factors that weigh in why Rich should win, not because he's got better skills than Lee, which I don't think he has. Lee has basically been surrounded by different fighting styles one way or another his whole life, Franklin started a lot later.
But the fact that Franklin has a lot better cardio, decent chin, is bigger and has better power, lee isn't 100% he should take this.

I agree that Rich should win. He's clearly a better fighter than Cung and has all the intangibles going for him. I'm disagreeing that he holds great value at -300. At those odds I want to see a guy who matches up well with his opponent and his opponent not having an obvious path to victory. I don't want to hope his opponent didn't train hard and is going to gas, especially when he showed good cardio in his last fight.

There's a big difference in punching power, how is that not plain as day?

Cung has nice hands but he has never slept anyone AFAIK. Rich has at least a few of those on his record.

Franklin's put out a couple guys over the course of a lot of fights. Quarry and no chin Chuck, plus maybe some guys very early in his career. He definitely has 1 punch KO power, but it's not like he's Hendo or anything. Cung has rocked some guys but nobody to sleep over 10 fights. He looks like he punches hard in his fights. I give Franklin the edge in power but I don't think it's huge.

The more I think about it the broken foot thing is really bothering me. 40yo man with broken foot vs a stud like Franklin is probably not going to win.

Yeah, Franklin has slightly more power, but it's not like he has huge KO power. Like I said, the reason he wins isn't bc he is techninically more proficient or has better wrestling, ground game than Lee, it's because he's younger, better cardio, good hands and is an overall decent fighter, like if this was a video game, he would be the guy with mid stats in everything. With his experience, I think u have to go with him just outworking Lee the further the fight goes.

Nope, as i capped before the odds came out, I think I said Danzig to -150 or so. Not enough value at -225. Certainly not with Rich at -280 when he should be -450 on the same card.

Nedkov was losing the standup to Cane before he got the finish from memory, Thiago Silva is leagues above him (like #10-13 LHW or so even without his non human urine and roids and stuff). I expect Thiago Silva to totally dominate the fight and capped it at value to -300 or so, I think the true line is closer to -350.

Looking forward to the Tuck/Zhang line most out of the upcoming ones. Underdog for Tuck one time?

He's not a face crusher sure but he has at least average power for his weight I would say, while Le has never really rocked anybody in the fights I've watched. His hands are speedy and accurate though for sure, but he has just never done the type of damage Franklin has.

I think Danzig should be -300 at least. Gomi is atrocious these days.

I agree Gomi's bad but Danzig hasn't been a world beater himself lately - wins against cans aside, his best recent performance was the narrow loss to Wiman (who is a legit upper-mid level LW)

He's looked solid 3 straight fights. Gomi has looked awful 3 straight fights. Furthermore, he's looked like he's basically down to tap out if that's a feasible option. The Diaz fight was a complete joke. I simply don't believe he can compete with a legit UFC LW, which Danzig has shown he is by disposing of fighters who aren't on the level while losing competitively to fighters who are.

Gomi is truly awful, even against the latest ufc fodder he was given, he struggled. Whilst losing to florian, guida and diaz isn't the worst since all of them are/where top 10 ranked, he hasn't really looked good in any of those performances and is sufficient to say at the bottom of the division.

My parlay card for the weekend;

Franklin -280
Nedkov +250
Thiago +185
Danzig -210

.15u-->2.86u

Don't really like Thiago this weekend. Way worse takedowns and his standup is sloppier than Kim's by a good bit.