Took this parlayed with Tirloni

Tried watching Bellator live for a bit as I had nothing to do (I normally watch on DVR much later). How anyone can watch this live is beyond me...commercials + pomp and circumstance or whatever this **** is takes up 75% of the broadcast.

I don't think it's any worse than UFC for that tbh.

Super close fight between Held and Marchaev just then. R1 for Held, R2 for Machaev and I'd call R3 a draw. Not sure who's going to get the decision. If pushed to make a decision I probably slightly lean Held on aggression + he landed a few leg kicks, not much in it tho.

Edit: Yep. Unanimous 29-28 for Held.

Bah Sarnavskiy is going to lose. After getting killed in grappling for two rounds, he hurts Clementi standing in R3 and instead of backing off and telling him to get up, he jumps in and tries to grapple again. So dumb.

1-2, -2.076u

Total: 27-17-0, 80.5u bet, +6.96u, 8.6% ROI
Best Bets: 5-2-0, 17u bet, +5.814u, 34.2% ROI
3-Star Plays: 3-1-0, 11u bet, +3.37u, 30.6% ROI
2-Star Plays: 12-4-0, 37u bet, +8.53u, 23.1% ROI
1-Star Plays: 12-12-0, 32.5u bet, -4.94u, -15.2% ROI

1 star plays killing me

Sarnavskiy bet turned out to be terrible. Dude has really poor TDD and can't grapple, plus his fight IQ seemed questionable.

BTW, towards the end of the fight, the ref would stand Clementi up, then he'd go into standup, and as soon as Sarnavskiy threw a strike at him, he'd collapse back onto the ground and go into guard. Is that legal? Didn't seem that different to staying on the ground in terms of avoiding standup.

what are u doing with this play at Franklin -280?

Nothing yet ill go about 6u id say if odds stay where they are or 10u if rich gets to -250, I think rich wins 80% or slightly more

A lot depends on the value on the rest of the card I guess

dont see how Le can win that fight

Something random but imo hes almost as big a fav as jones was over belfort. I mean its mma but franklin is literally better at everything buy flashy kicks plus hes bigger younger and more experienced. pretty sure rich has only lost to anderson at mw.

Yes.

He was basically ignoring his corners plea to keep the fight standing. Clementi would roll over on the ground after a half-ass spinning back fist and Sarnavskiy would just jump in his guard. I bet his corner was furious. I know my bets were.

Le is almost at weight, 4 weeks out. Rich is still going to smash him.

I got 8 units in on Franklin ITD at -113. It's sitting at -135 right now, but I still think that's better value than Franklin -280.

Really liking Carwin/Nelson to go the distance at +280, and Lauzon/Maynard ITD at -130. Thoughts?

While Carwin and Nelson are both durable, it's a 5 round fight and both guys are HWs. Not to mention cardio issues. +280 is a good price though but I'd probably pass.

I'm not loving Lauzon/Maynard at -130 either. Maynard wins a lot by decision.

They should have a prop up if Carwin gets busted for PEDs on this random drug test.

I don't think Nelson/Carwin is likely to go the distance, but i think they do around 1/3 of the time. I put 1u on +280, but I'm really hoping the line moves to like +350. If it doesn't soon, I expect it to move in that direction the day of the fight.

Lauzon/Maynard, I expect Gray to keep it standing, I'd be suprised if he went for takedowns, unless he gets hurt on the feet. LnP style is not the best strategy against a guy like Lauzon, he's very active on his back and will be throwing subs the entire time. Gray's got the edge on the feet, I think anytime it hits the floor with Gray on top, we'll see Gray work for a short bit but then stand up and bring it back to the feet. IMO the likelihood this fight ends via stoppage is about 65%.

I doubt Carwin fight goes distance. Someone is gonna get gassed and finished IMO.

Sarnavskiy's fight IQ was horrific.

Agreed fwiw, either Carwin finishes Roy in the first or he gets finished late after gassing imo. Leaning the former.

If it goes past 3rd round I think it goes to decision a lot unless someone is really really gassed. Their punching power and speed will go down a lot. Carwin looked alright vs JDS in terms of cardio and if he can keep that up, I wouldnt be surprised to see it go the distance because if JDS couldn't finish him then I think Nelson is going to have a hard time doing the same.

Hmm, I guess both went the distance vs JDS, a lot depends on their cardio. Then again, both have been finished before too so meh idk

Both of them have been finished one time each... Yes, if Carwin comes 2nd round like he did against Brock, he's prolly getting tko'd or smth due to unanswered punches or possibly tapped but I'd figure Carwins gameplan is to take it easy and actually pace himself, even if he gets Nelson hurt.

This. I think they're both going to treat it like a five round fight, neither guy is going to come out swinging for the fences in round one. Roy's too smart for that, and Shane got burned by that in the Brock fight. Every one of Roy's UFC fights in which he comes in an underdog he's lost by decision, and he got beat up badly in two of those without getting stopped. +280 isn't great, but that will probably get better the day prior to or the day of the fight, as HW ITD prop lines that open many days prior to the fight usually see a bunch of late money come in on the fight to finish ITD. Recent examples include Browne/Bigfoot, Struve/Miocic, Nog/Herman, Werdum/Russow.

Oh right its 5 rounds. This could get really awful if they both gas, but i'd imagine one will gas before the other and get finished if neither of them land a big shot in the first 2 rounds