meh, if i can get cheap seats i'll go, but I don't have my heart set on it or anything given the caliber of the card

can always book last minute as I only live ~2hrs away from where it'll be held and don't need to organise accom etc. really

Thought about Franklin ITD some more today, I'm going to wait for that to come out, I have a feeling that line will be way off. Franklin to win and Fight ITD are both out now and they're both off in the same fashion (favorite is undervalued). So Franklin ITD will be the value in both those lines compounded. I think that line is going to open close to evens, when it should probably be like -225.

Part of what's fueling this is the fact that the favorite is not known for being a killer finisher, while the underdog has flashy KOs, so at first glance Rich by decision seems reasonably likely. The cardio disparity though will be uncommonly massive, and it's being overlooked. Tapology dudes are predicting the fight is won via decision 39.4% of the time, I think that number is more like 15%.

Actually Franklin's chin isn't the greatest. He got flattened by an unremarkable punch from Belfort.

I'm gonna go fairly heavy on Franklin I think. I liked him at -350 the last time they were supposed to fight, and thanks to Le's solid performance against Cote, the odds have gotten even better. My analysis is the same as before: they are both very good strikers but Franklin's got a better chin and more power in his hands. Le will eventually crumble under Franklin's volume striking.

Le seems to have improved his cardio issues in the Cote fight. It looked like he adjusted his game by not throwing all the fancy spinning kick techniques that gassed him out in the past. Although in a 5 round fight he could still gas in the championship rounds.

Laughingstock of a fight just announced...Jones vs Sonnen for TUF. If nobody gets hurt, I will be looking to unload a massive bet on Jones ITD. Maybe every unit I can gather up to get on 5dimes.

Whoa, just read it, will def tune in to watch that show, sonnen is very entertaining. Ldo Jones will crush him. Wonder how much money jones got for this, must be massive bc I doubt he would take this otherwise.

Won't line be pretty inflated tho?

I'd guess around -300. Still huge value there.

-300 would be great, I'd like ITD up to -380.

You guys seen the WSOF card in Vegas? http://www.mmawsof.com/

Not sure if there will be many lines available as it's a small show but I'm defiantly getting tickets (they start at $20!)

idk how they can get away with calling it the "world series" with arlovski vs cole as the headliner

world series of cans and jobbers maybe

I'll enjoy a show with, Arloski, Torres, Johnson, Spongs MMA debut, Cavalcante, and even a token Gracie to cheer for.

It should be an interesting event and is not far off some of the FX card in terms of name value. I'll take MMA for $20 in a small theatre in equivalent seat to a UFC $300 ticket (whilst waiting for the Vegas new year show)

Epic.

Here we go, TUF is worth watching again. Probably a poor decision not to let Chael beat Forrest to have a win in the division but there's no denying with sagging ratings on TUF (Nelson vs Carwin is just wtf for coaches) Jones vs Sonnen will get people watching again as they are two of the most polarising figures in MMA

Even though i'm a Silva fan, I'll be #TeamSonnen this time. I hope Chael can take him down, if so Jones could be in for a rough night, no one has ever really roughed him up and while Rashad couldn't take him down, he didn't really try to either. We know Sonnen will shoot for the takedown over and over or get finished trying.

Jones opened at -600 and has already been bet to a minimum of -750, - 975 at the worst.

Sonnen currently sitting around +650.

You guys that were talking about -300 were way off. Any thoughts on this line?

How much less of a dog to Jones is Sonnen compared to Vitor?

Knew it would come out inflated. Idk how much value there is at that line

Depends how Sonnen handles bulking up. If he can put on enough muscle to cut from 225 he has a legit chance to just power double eat a shot and get the takedown and if Sonnen gets on top of Jones, all bets are off as to how Jones will be in r2 eating Sonnen punches for all of r1.

Basically, if Sonnen has a 50%+ chance of landing a takedown against Jones, I think the eventual +700 or whatever the odds are will be worth a play. If not, then just play Jones ITD as Sonnen will be done within 3 rounds if he can't take Jones down.

Sonnen's biggest problem is that Jones is a bigger guy, that said Jones does have skinny legs so if Sonnen can get ahold of him with a power double he may be able to dump him on the mat as Jones will have a higher centre of gravity than most LHWs and he the best wrestler he has faced (Rashad) didn't try to spam takedowns against him.

Obviously if Sonnen's gameplan is anything other than spam takedowns, he is drawing dead, but I think he learned his lesson about spinning backfists in the second Silva fight and he has to know this will be his last title shot in the UFC if he loses.

I actually think Sonnen might have a better chance against Jones than he does against Machida in the LHW division. Obviously they will be the two toughest fights for him (and Hendo is a bad MU for Sonnen too as Hendo can use defensive wrestling + better striking, although if Sonnen gets Hendo down he will win)

Sonnen won't be a dominant champ at LHW but he's more live than Belfort was.

The -300 was for ITD.

Reading comprehension is good.

Sonnen has no chance, I don't even care if he GETS a takedown. He might be able to control Jones for a bit but we are still talking about a good wrestler and grappler with long limbs who is presumable capable of attacking off his back if he's pulling guard against Rampage and threatening him with a triangle. It's not like if Sonnen gets him down he's going to do a ton of damage.

Sonnen drawing dead has zero ways to win. People saying line came out inflated at -600 should not bet MMA. Ton of value on JJ at -600.

Absolutely absurd that a guy coming off of a loss moves up a weight class and gets a shot just because he talks a lot of ****.

That being said, I don't think it's possible for the line to get to a point where Jones isn't good value, especially in a 5 round fight.

Fantasy obviously but there's been talk of a Fedor return this week. Had he been the TUF opponent it would have made for really interesting lines. He could easily make 205 and would have finished that armbar.

Chael will put up a fight but be crushed over 5 rounds, he has no way to finish Jones and is moving up in weight.

I just hope Dana puts the money up for the Silva/Jones fight summer 2013. The Chael fight results will be great for the MMA math guys.

Since last week I have no interest in Silva GSP it won't be competitive.

That's such an absurd argument. By that logic Roger Gracie is a good matchup for Jones.

I should have clarified my argument for you, I assumed a knowledge of Fedors other threats that would have led to the potential armbar.

I can assure you Fedor would be by far Jones's most dangerous opponent thus far if he cut to 205. The line would be much tighter (and more interesting which was my point) than the Chael, Belfort or even Hendo lines. It would have made for an exceptional TUF for true/old school fans as he poses a legitimate threat. Chael is just there for sound bites and to be crushed for Jones's resume. He'll be game but has no real way of finishing the fight and is too small to overpower him for the decision. The same cannot be said for Fedor.

Yes there was the Hendo KO (was a one off) personally I have Fedor beating Hendo 8/10, in his Monson and Rizzo fights he looked sharper than ever.

Roger currently lacks the stand-up to be able to force Jones into that situation. He would be finished on the feet in round 1 Greg wouldn't let it go near the mat.

Fedor would pose a serious risk standing. Due to his coaching style and hate of variance Greg would get Jones to use his Wrestling which then makes the ground game interesting, hence my armbar comment.

I know I push for exciting fights on here but my background is:

1. Check out my coaching listing, look at my job
2. I've been around MMA since 1999, I've worked on shows, cornered fighters and during my youth 1999-2004 I fought and trained with UFC level fighters, I know many of them personally and am actively involved in the industry.

I prefer watching aggressive fighters and bet for fun. You'll find me looking for great odds on an underdog rather than a favourite as I enjoy it more that way.

Anyway far too long a response for a 2 line reply.

Not being a particularily muscular fighter, Fedor would be giving up size and Strength to Bones at 205. There is a 0% chance that Fedor could "overpower him for a decision". Bones wont have a bigfoot-esque size advantage, and his grappling top game isn't as good, but his ground and pound is infinitely more damaging.

Looking sharp against Pedro Rizzo hasn't meant anything in years. There's a reason Fedor fought Monson, Ishii and Rizzo after his losing streak. He doesn't have it in him to defeat Strikeforce-level competition, let alone top 3 P4P level competition. It's been a long time since Fedor has beaten anyone impressive (3 years if you count either Timmy or Andrei, and 5-6 if you don't).

Fedor has rarely exhibited an overly impressive bottom game, and having one of the best ground n pound fighters ever pouring down shots on you while you do it is that much harder.

It's pure delusion to think that Fedor is a 'legitimate threat' compared to any current top-5 LHWs to Jones. JBJ at anything better than -800 would be like printing money.

Seriously if you think Fedor doesn't have an impressive bottom game you have missed many of his fights! Coleman armbar X2, Randleman kimura post suplex, the sweeps on Nogueria! What in your mind is an impressive bottom game? He has one of the more technical ground games in HW MMA and is at much higher level than Jones.

Jones may be one of the best GNP's but in many peoples mind Fedor is the king of GNP....

Timmy and Andrei were both top 3 at the time, thats pretty good and he's moving down in weight unlike Chael who's moving up.

All of this being said my argument is that the lines and the fight would be infinity more interesting than the Chael fight not that Fedor would have a definite win.

I'd put a large sum on Fedor anywhere +300 against jones but thats just me

btw the current top five are
Jones
Henderson
Machida
Evans
Rua

I would happily chose a lean 205 Fedor as a more legitimate threat than the other four.