MMA Thread - Page 220 - Sports Betting - SportsBetting Strategy and Forum

Correct, when tracking, it equalizes the betting amounts and indicates who is performing better. As well, it allows people to share picks and indications of confidence while retaining privacy over their finances/money situation.

I.e. Person A betting $10 per game goes 9-1 for +$80 (8u), Person B betting $100 per game goes 6-4 for +$200 (2u), you'd obviously want person A's picks but that could be misleading if you just saw raw profit dollar figures.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:04 AM

#5477

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Quote:

Originally Posted by yoyobo

Why did nog get sub of night over Mia? And did anyone catch fight/KO?

Armbars are pretty and Nog is popular.

Maia's sub was the most impressive by far though. What is that even called, 'tap or i'll snap your neck while blood shoots out through your nose'?

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:09 AM

#5478

Yell Fire!

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 291

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Armbars are pretty and Nog is popular.

Maia's sub was the most impressive by far though. What is that even called, 'tap or i'll snap your neck while blood shoots out through your nose'?

Definitely the most gruesome, when I saw the blood start spurting out of nose, I started to worry about his health. I've never really seen a more obvious "oh ****, this is really bad for this guy" then blood spraying out of your nose while your neck is getting jacked up, glad he tapped because that could have been headed towards an ugly scene.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:11 AM

#5479

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChrisV

2-star plays

Erick Silva v Jon Fitch: 2u @ 1.881 (BEST BET) L

1-star plays

Wagner Prado v Phil Davis: 1u @ 4.2 L
Gleison Tibau v Francisco Trinaldo: 1u @ 1.69 W
Akop Stepanyan v Wagnney Fabiano: 1u @ 2.5 L

1-3, -2.31u.

Record:

Total: 26-15-0, 76.5u bet, +9.036u, 11.8% ROI
Best Bets: 5-2-0, 17u bet, +5.814u, 34.2% ROI
3-Star Plays: 3-1-0, 11u bet, +3.37u, 30.6% ROI
2-Star Plays: 12-4-0, 37u bet, +8.53u, 23.1% ROI
1-Star Plays: 11-10-0, 28.5u bet, -2.864u, -10% ROI

Only fight I saw was Tibau. All the bets seemed a bit meh but at the price I am OK with losing a closeish fight to Fitch in very good condition, since the point of the bet was that he might not be. If nothing else I beat the closing line by a hell of a lot.

Last edited by ChrisV; 10-14-2012 at 01:19 AM.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:13 AM

#5480

wiper

still catching up

Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 42,897

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yell Fire!

yeah uhh...that's not why.

your unit is 'supposed' to be 1-2% of your bankroll. it lowers your risk of ruin, if your bankroll goes up, so does your unit. if it goes down, so does your unit (and risk of ruin).

units aren't used so people can measure e-dicks.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:16 AM

#5481

Machinehead

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 4,050

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yell Fire!

I saw it happen once where a guy was in a super tight headlock and his face was turning purple, then all of the sudden a huge gusher of blood pours out of his nose(way more than Story's) and he insta tapped. He seemed fine afterwards and looked like he regretted tapping since he wasn't getting choked. It was a "Oh ****, wtf just happened to me" tap.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:20 AM

#5482

LasFuentes

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 1,889

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Armbars are pretty and Nog is popular.

Maia's sub was the most impressive by far though. What is that even called, 'tap or i'll snap your neck while blood shoots out through your nose'?

It's just a face/neck crank, nothing unusual about it. Aoki has like 4 wins in a row with it.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:21 AM

#5483

DjSkyy

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,735

Yeah i though that was pretty brutal/weird too. what was with that blood out of story's nose? i dont understand why squeezing on his neck should make blood shoot out his nose, can anyone explain? seems super super dangerous unless ther'es a good reason?

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:26 AM

#5484

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

Quote:

Originally Posted by DjSkyy

Must have been pressure from the choke causing blood vessels in the nose to burst.

(Eye get bloodshot as well from the same thing)

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:28 AM

#5485

Machinehead

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 4,050

^^ yeah I think it's just blood vessels bursting from the pressure too.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:34 AM

#5486

Chris M

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2005 Posts: 580

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chris M

153 bets:
Silva/Bonnar ITD 5u @ -245
Silva by TKO 7u @ -168
Silva ITD 5u @ -265
Bonnar by Decision 0.5u @ +1575 (lol hedge)
Maia/Story ITD 1u @ +22o
Maia 2u @ -140
Brandao 3u @ -195
Cane 2u @ -125
Maldonado/Teix ITD 2u @ -280
Prado/Davis goes Decision 1u @ +150
Herman/Big Nog Over 1.5r 1u @ -110

Way overextended on this card, I honestly picked up Silva/Bonnar ITD and Silva ITD only because I got them early and figured I could arb easily, thought those lines were going to get much worse......and they were for a while, but they're back down to reality, so I'm stuck with them for now. Oh well, should be a fun night either way.

+11.47u, 41.69% ROI on the posted picks

Also added a unit each on Fitch by decision at +210 and Nog at -210 right before their fights. With those up just over 14u, I run gooooood.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:34 AM

#5487

stereoman

adept

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 917

Fight of the Night - Fitch vs. Silva and Knockout of the Night - Rony Jason.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:35 AM

#5488

Yell Fire!

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 291

Quote:

Originally Posted by wiper

It is though, people don't necessarily define a unit as 1-2% of their roll. What I stated is absolutely true whether that's how you think of it like that or not. I never meant to suggest it's a measuring contest, it does show who is picking better, it does maintain privacy of financial situations and does give an indicator of confidence of picks.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 02:20 AM

#5489

elliot10181

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 2,720

For you guys

http://imageshack.us/scaled/landing/651/zombiepl.gif

Quote

10-14-2012 , 02:21 AM

#5490

stressed

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,409

Quote:

Originally Posted by DodgerIrish

I wanna see Anderson vs Weidman while GSP gets ready

Weidman doesn't deserve to get into cage with Greatest of All Time yet. 2 more strong showings first. One good KO of Munoz doesn't get you that shot. Perhaps Bisping vs Weidman for a title eliminator.

These guys and Boetsch aren't even in the same class as Anderson. Head and shoulders wayyyy above the rest.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 02:27 AM

#5491

SwoopAE

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 22,249

Could Anderson Silva still be champ in 2020? Who knows, Randy won the title in his 40s and Silva's reflexes are as amazing as ever.

Make Anderson vs GSP at 180 catchweight (assuming GSP beats Condit) and have Weidman/Boetsch winner fight Bisping for the title shot, will be a well established #1 contender by then.

Assuming Belcher wins his next fight, match him up with the Franklin/Le winner in the meanwhile to keep him busy, or rematch the fight between him and Belfort if Belfort goes back to 185.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 02:32 AM

#5492

stressed

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2006 Posts: 1,409

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

If Silva had time to bulk up and prepare at 205 I wouldn't bet against him. Machida found Jones' chin and Silva has even better striking than Machida.

Jones would have to TKO or Sub Anderson on the ground in the first or second round standing with him for less than a minute in each to be a fav imo. Given Belfort lasted 4 rounds with him, I think Silva would get it done. Silva has a better chin than Machida and Belfort too.

To be honest if my life depended on it i'd take Anderson Silva with 3+ mths prep time to move to LHW over Jones at evens.

I like Anderson also cause he'll probably open as a dog vs Jones.

Generally people get better and not worse (aging will make you worse)

Jones fought Bonnar years ago and has drastically improved. Bonnar might be a bit better or the same.

Old raw Jones went the distance with Bonnar. Still not sure if Jones can toy with Bonnar today as Anderson did.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 02:41 AM

#5493

GoDeViLs

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 3,464

Quote:

Originally Posted by SwoopAE

Could Anderson Silva still be champ in 2020?

dont think so

Quote

10-14-2012 , 03:26 AM

#5494

ChrisV

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 40,336

Quote:

Originally Posted by stressed

Generally people get better and not worse (aging will make you worse

Partly this is a selection bias effect. Fighters who don't improve generally get cut from the UFC and fighters who do improve stay in, thus creating the illusion that improvement is common. A lot of fighters just stagnate.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 03:34 AM

#5495

Klever187

veteran

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 2,003

Quote:

Originally Posted by Klever187

This was just effing incredible GOAT in ANY COMBAT SPORT.

tiiiight Dana said what I said in the post fight press conference =)

Quote

10-14-2012 , 10:16 AM

#5496

Swiiftx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 7,991

There is a reason Silva isn't fighting at LHW, if he could he would. Bonnar isn't a top 10 ranked fighter LHW, heck he isn't even top 20 ranked. I think Silva beats a majority of the fighters at LHW, but he will struggle a lot vs some of the top ranked(except against someone like Ryan Bader etc).

Quote

10-14-2012 , 12:14 PM

#5497

just_mo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,699

Jones would crush Silva IMO. There's a reason he doesn't wanna face that man.

I did well on bets, just had some parlays with the favorites who came in: Silva, Nog, Davis, Teixeira. All seemed +EV from what I saw.

Didn't see all fights though, curious if the Story/Maia fight was competitive?

Quote

10-14-2012 , 12:20 PM

#5498

Kirbynator

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 52,004

nop

Quote

10-14-2012 , 01:00 PM

#5499

Swiiftx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 7,991

Maia basically steamrolled him, went directly for the takedown, played around with a one min or so advancing to better position and keeping story for getting up, got backcontrol and did a nasty neck crank to the point of blood dripping out from stories nose and then he tapped.

Quote

10-14-2012 , 04:22 PM

#5500

DjSkyy

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 2,735

i woulda had a good night if erick silva didnt fight like a child and embarrass himself in there. i mean he was obviously the more talented man in the cage but he let himself get fitched (tho tbf, this is the best fitch we've seen).

Hopefully he will learn from his mistakes.

Also kind of blew it by not betting Moraes, i knew damned well -200 was valuetown :/

Quote

Page 220 of 2165

First

20 120 170 200 210 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 230 240 270 320 420 720 1220

Last

Post Reply Subscribe

...

Page 220 of 2165

First

20 120 170 200 210 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 230 240 270 320 420 720 1220

Last