23 year old Chase Hooper should retire from MMA. He gotta lot of hype because he entered the UFC so young, but honestly he's never shown to be that talented. I can't say I was surprised whatsoever to see him get completely destroyed by a guy that was 12-5. Chase is pretty much a human punching bag on the feet. On the ground is another story, but that's why he should be competing in BJJ, not fighting in the Octagon.

Glad you guys talked me off of my initial Silva bet. Moved over to Paul and it was nice to cash there. Nice to cash on Uriah Hall as well, but the odds were great or anything at 1.20 for the win.

I did ok with my Bellator picks using Cody Saftics post, but it was only a small win for me there.

Lost on UFC today. Used picks from Ian Parker and Cody Saftic and got mediocre results, which ended up with a net loss. Cody has been really cold for a long time now. He was really hot in 2020 when I really started tailing his stuff.

On to the next week. Ian Parker is usually pretty reliable, so I guess this was just an off week.

I did really well with the UFC today, but I made my picks completely off the cuff without anywhere close to as much thought as those guys put in.

To me the Kattar/Allen fight was a no brainer at even money for the simple fact that we know exactly what Kattar is. He's a gatekeeper and at a #5 ranking, he's gotta be right around his ceiling. When he fought Max Holloway some had him losing 50-41. It was just absolute destruction. The "experts" said Kattar should win, in part, because he's been tested, but when he's been tested against top guys he lost and he lost handily. I viewed Allen having not faced the top of the division as a positive. Maybe my logic is stupid/bad, but we don't know how he would perform against the top guys. He has unknown upside potential whereas Kattar's upside is known (ie there isn't much). Even odds vs an 18-1 up and comer undefeated 9-0 in the UFC with a few quality wins just didn't make sense to me.

Sucks that Kattar blew his knee out, although he did it to himself. I can't really blame him though. He needed to pull out all the stops.

Still not sure about who should have been favored in the Jake Paul fight. Probably Paul, but I really want to think it's close either way. Still don't think Jake Paul or Anderson Silva would be involved in any sort of fight fixing, but judging in boxing is so sketchy and if the scorecards were going to be wonky they would most certainly probably be so in Paul's favor so Swoop was probably right about that as that should push it even more to Paul's side.

I think Jake Paul beats Nate Diaz fairly easily if that happens. In some ways I suppose Nate could be a tougher opponent than Tyron (albeit with much less power). While the Diaz brothers are durable (Askren was supposed to be too), I just don't think he can put Jake Paul in nearly as tough of spots as Anderson did.

Looking at a Paul vs Diaz matchup, even given that Nate is one of my favorite MMA fighters/personalities of all time, Paul would have big advantages there in terms of size, strength and youth. Nate has fought at 155/170 throughout his career, while Paul is in the 185 lb range. Paul is a fairly athletic guy with unlimited resources for training/knowledge to grow his boxing game. I'd have to make him a favorite.

From seeing Anderson's previous MMA fights, and some of his boxing, one thing I recall from him in his later years, especially after Weidman KO'd him, was his lack of aggression and being passive. Like in the Nick Diaz fight for example. I think that is something that made the matchup easier on Jake. Nate would not be as passive and he would definitely press forward and engage, so there would definitely be a bigger style difference in that respect.

I am thinking about going quite heavy on Weili Zhang to beat Carla later this month. Possibly my largest wager of all time. I think the odds were 1.28. Any thoughts on this play?

My thoughts:

As of right now, I made a bet large enough to move the odds down on Pinnacle, immediately after it was made. And I've been parlaying that with alot of other plays. I just think she gets it done and is a better fighter everywhere.

Zhang's wrestling improved a lot because she trained with Fight Ready (Henry Cejudo) in Arizona. I wouldn't necessarily expect her to outwrestle Esparza, albeit it is possible. I do expect Zhang to have the physical strength and enough skill to keep the fight on the feet for the majority of the time.

Esparza has dominated her opponents in the wrestling department for the majority of her UFC career. There was a period around 2018 where she struggled in this department for a few fights. Tatiana Suarez actually took her down 9 times, wtf. That kinda explains why I thought Suarez was going to be champ (albeit, I later cooled on her a bit due to cardio concerns).

Hey guys, just having some drinks and setting up picks for tomorrow's fights. I'm not going too heavy on bets here, and taking some pretty conservative stuff. I just thought I'd share and open to input or your picks as well.

Pascual vs Vidal: taking over 1.5 and 2.5 rounds here
Madsen vs Dawson: over 1.5 and 2.5 rounds
Parisian vs Sherman: over 1 round and 1.5 rounds
Magny vs Rodriguez: over 1.5 and 2.5 rounds
Rodriguez vs Lemos: Rodriguez to win, over 1.5 and 2.5 rounds. Rodriguez by decision.

Small sprinkles on Hadley, Bautista and Maverick to win.

I don't know alot of these fighters too well, and most of these decisions are based on ESPN's Ian Parker.

Maria Rodriguez to win is a bit regrettable now, with how heavy I went on it. Ian Parker and Cody Saftic were big on her winning, but after I placed my bets James Krause really showed caution on that fight and recommended to stay away.

Next week is my big Weili bet, parlayed with other items. I also bet on Dustin to win as well.

Nice one. After watching all of the fight week videos, I also made a fairly large bet on Zhang. Made it look easy too

Nice man. Ya its nice to get that win. I watched James Krause's video this week on UFC 281, and he suggested the idea of betting Weili then hedging with Carla by decision, so I partially hedged there just incase. Ofcourse I wish I didn't in hindsight lol. I'm curious as to what my next big bet will be on a sure thing. Those are always fun when you have alot of confidence in an outcome.

I dabbled small on Spann to win and that came through. That bet was just based on the odds of 2.80, seeing that Reyes had been away for over a year, and had been on a losing streak. The accumulation of damage maybe getting to him as his lights just got shut off really fast.

I put a decent sized wager on Izzy to win, so I was disappointed to see him lose in the 5th. He is great at the role of being a champion and a superstar within the sport, so I hope he can dust himself off and get redemption.

I was shocked by the Spann line. I didn't see it until right before the fight otherwise I would have posted about it. I expected Spann to be like -180. The fight went exactly as expected. Reyes's best skills are his defensive wrestling..ie ability to prevent the takedown and ability to get up from takedowns. That's great against wrestlers that he outstrike but does him no good against strikers that can outstrike him. This division is loaded with guys that are more dangerous on the feet and have better striking than Reyes. He did defeat Oezdemir, but most people thought the decision should have gone the other way.

The hope with Reyes, especially since he was training with Glover, would be that he would start incorporating more offensive wrestling when facing a guy like Ryan Spann. However, if you are hoping for a complete shift in strategy from a fighter, then he should probably be the underdog.

BTW, I'm pretty sure that was the first jab KO in UFC history. I had recently been looking for an example of a jab KO and was unable to find one. In the 2nd slow motion replay the announcers thought that this was possibly a hook. However, after reviewing this a few times it does appear to have been a jab but Spann's arms are so long that his arm was not fully extended at impact which made it look like a hook.

Did pretty well this weekend following James Krause and Ian Parker's picks. One of the nicest plays I got was from Krause who said to sprinkle on the Waldo Cortes-Acosta decision at 5 to 1. I did a really minimal sprinkle of $5, which is obviously regrettable in hindsight, but it was nice to hit. I didn't know too much about the fighters for the past card, so I kept the bets farily small. Curious as to what if any fallout there will be for James Krause.

Just want to discuss some possible future plays that I'm looking at.

Kevin Holland to win vs Steven Thompson at 1.72 odds. I know Wonderboy can give people alot of trouble with his in and out Karate style, but the guy is 39 now, so I have to think he has lost a step in quickness, which is pretty important to his counter striking style. Holland is a young guy with striking and a submission game, and won't be one of those slow plotting strikers that Wonderboy can chew up.

Dricus DuPlessis to win vs Darren Till at 1.72 odds. Dricus is a big strong guy with KO power and a solid record. Till hasn't fought in over a year and hasn't won in three years. Eyeing Dricus at this point.

Some other ones I'm looking at are Billy Q to win over Alex Hernandez (1.57), Joachin Buckley to win over Chris Curtis (1.80), and Jiri to defend his title over Glover (1.47). I'll wait for fight pick videos to come out before making any bets though.

Last event went pretty well tailing Ian Parkers picks, but I did lose on Daukaus and Hermansson. Made most of my money betting the overs in the Wonderboy Holland fight. I did get off my original Holland bet and hedged out because experts were picking Wonderboy. I missed out on not betting Wonderboy though which would have been nice at plus money.

No huge leans for this next card. Staying with Driccus and prob leaning Ankalaev.

Well last card was a complete stay away from me. I liked Phil Rowe, both because of his nickname and the matchup with another (non-elite) striker but I forgot to bet him. I am happy the fresh prince learned to fight.

No bets so far, but I'm most looking forward to Sean Strickland vs Jared Cannonier aka the battle of the forgotten men/disappointments. This may be the most relatable fight in UFC history.

Also, Said Nurmagomedov vs Saidyoukub Kakhramonov. If I didn't know who they were, I would guess their occupation involves killing of some sort. Are men like this put on this planet for us to embrace our violent side? Hmmm. Should be fun.

Forgot to mention I'm leaning toward Santiago for this next event. Love Lawler, but if he can get stopped by Barbarena, I don't see him getting by Santiago.

Forgot the Santiago fight is off, due to Lawler injury.

Am on Brown and Buckley for tomorrow, considering Till and Blachowicz too but the heavy steam against Till has me a bit worried that he's not 100%, i've bet on Dricus a few times and he is good without being elite but Till at his best would be a fav it's a matter of is he at his best or not. I did score the Wonderboy fight 48-47 for WB but at the same time that fighter beats Dricus easily, it's a matter of whether Till is just done or not between the injury and layoff and losses, so will probably just no bet it even though I half want to take him as a dog to a guy who is insanely hittable.

Steam hasn't really been an accurate predictor of his fights, same with Blachowicz market never rates him and to be honest I think he's run above expectation to have the record he does but there's also no way in the world he's an almost +300 dog to any LHW other than Jon Jones let alone Ankalaev. Haven't fired it yet though because he's drifting will decide closer to the fight

Good luck all!

After listening to a couple of shows, I'm not too certain about too much tonight. The most confident bet I have at the moment is Rozenstreik over Daukhaus. Other that that, I'll probably just watch for entertainment or try to live bet stuff.

During the 5th round I had a strong feeling this would end in a draw. Such a fitting ending to such a shitty fight. Do Glover vs Jan next please. Who the hell wants to see tonight's fight again?


Jan needs to learn to keep his mouth shut in the heat of the moment. There is a fair case for him winning rounds 1 through 3. Ankalaev came in with an absolutely terrible gameplan (maybe scared of Jan's power?). Had he gone for takedowns early he would have run away with this fight.

Ya, Jan should have kept his mouth shut and give himself a chance to watch the fight over before admitting to losing the fight like that. He is doing himself a disservice in terms of putting himself in position for a rematch, or whatever the UFC will do going forward.

I wish I bet Rozenstruik KO, but still got the W there. It was just a tough night of fights for picking, although I would have done well trusting Cody Saftic. He has been cold for so long and got crushed last night, so he has been hard to trust.

Any good leans on any bets this weekend? I'm not super convinced on these, but I've bet on Imavov, Viera and Jackson so far. Also small bet on Cachoeira, based on the 3.04 to 1 odds. Still going to watch a few more videos before making my plays.

Well I lost on all those bets lol. But I went heavier on other stuff that won. Did parlays with Basharat to win, Umar to win and Imanov/Strickland over 1.5 and over 2.5 rounds. Those all hit and are parlayed with NFL bets on SF, BUF and CIN. SF won today which is nice. I also bet on Rebecki but he was a heavy favorite so it was a low payout.

Cody Saftic did really well on his picks today, but I only partially tailed him. I always pay attention to his picks since he was hot in 2020 and helped get my bankroll up, but he has beens so cold for so long. His night tonite was more of an outlier compared to his results over the past 14 months.

The Jones vs Gane betting line is quite intriguing, with Gane as a slight favorite. I'm not too sure which way to go on this fight.

You have Jones who has possibly the best resume of all time, with a well rounded skill set. But then he is moving up to a division with extra weight and we are not sure how he will handle it. Also, Jones has shown decline in his last few wins vs Reyes and Santos, in that he barely escaped with a victory in both. Also, he will have a layoff of over 3 years when he returns to the octagon.

Gane has been more active and possibly has the best striking and movement in the entire heavyweight division. Francis did use wrestling to win the fight against him, so that could be a hole in his game there.

Jones currently paying 2.00 to 1. Gane is 1.80.