Oh Cain.

Yeah it just sucks Cain isn't a better shot.

Another value line alert:

Umar by decision +130
Umar by sub +245

On stars. Won’t last long. Both can be arbed on other sites for a bit and (at least IMO) are already good bets.


Was going to post earlier but 5dimes had a whopper of a line yesterday. They had not michal by decision at -260, while others had michal by decision around 300-400. One of the beefiest pure arbs I’ve seen in a long time.

ML has moved up a lot already but can still get pereira by ko or decision -167 foxbet. im housing it.

Damon Jackson by sub on stars is accidentally flipped with their ko odds.

It pays 1100 and should be 500ish.

Jump on it before they fix it.

Stars has perreira by ko/tko/dq at -110.


-167 is slightly better than -110 and 850 by decision (best decision line available), but worse if you’re using the mid point between the buy/sell on decision prices.

They haven’t capped me yet but the price has since moved to -111.

Fanfuel has volkov by decision at +500. Completely broken but can’t bet there as a a Canadian so not sure about caps.

Pstars had a similar low cap broken line in their props. Volkov decision or 3th/5th round finish at +320. Not a big deal but might as well slam $200 on it for your $30 ev.


Krylov/Craig fdgtd was off in a massive way, priced at -165 … anyone else get a large amount on it? The closing fdgtd lines for both these guys in comparably close matchups was in the ballpark of -350 to -400. Still value at -200 most likely which is where it’s sitting for now.

Gunnar Nelson by decision at BetOnline is +385. Easy arb, since there are bets on other outcomes that are aggressively priced and borderline arb-able.


If anyone else sniffs these types of things out and wants to talk privately / exchange info in real time send me a pm.

I just max bet a parlay on Khamzat, Volkanovski, and Yan @ -114 which has an implied probability of 53%. The actual win % should be way higher, probably in the 60-85 range. I got it on Bovada.

Good luck to me

Nevermind, the math was off, it's a more or less breakeven bet

Congrats to those who got volkov decision at +500 for big money.

Even with aspinal hometown punters driving up the price on volkov lines you can’t do better than that, and the not volkov by decision line can still be had for a healthy arb at -385 with high caps.

Anyone late to the party, stars has volkov decision +420 but not sure on caps. And for small time bettors you can get volkov by decision or submission at +400 with a very low cap.


The pimblet hometown favourite bump is crazy also. Most of the Vargas positions are crap though. The KO prop stands out at +1100 Vargas which is the best way to fade pimblet by far.

Any bookmakers that accept bets from One fc events?

Any early thoughts on Oliveira and Gaethje? Chucky Olives -160 seems way too low, Gaethje is what he is, I've never seen him as a potential champ. Kinda nuts he has gotten there because of the division being so weak. Hasn't been any new blood in awhile besies Islam. Which is surprising since lower weight MMA usually turns over faster.

olives ftw. def like at current price

Quite the card today

Was baffled by Bladyes gameplan r1 but good to see him get a rebuilding win

Brown/Barbarena was a sick fight had some Barbarena and got super lucky the coinflip split went my way

Can't wait for Volk up next. Prob unbettable fav and rightfully so but as a fan should be good

and yeah i'm expecting to be on Oliveira too against Gaethje, he can win if it's 100% standing war but isn't even a lock in that and obv if Oliveira gets into an advantageous grappling position it's over

Interesting line movements Volk 1.15, Yan 1.22, Khamzat at 1.2 all of them should be favorites but odds are way off.

I mean they're all favs to win, but I think Yan is def the most likely to lose of the 3, people forget Aljo was actually winning early rounds before Yan tagged him a bit and he started slowing down, if Aljo paces himself a bit better while still throwing volume he's def live

Khamzat should win if he's the real deal which everyone expects but it is worth noting he had long covid so who knows how his cardio will look over 5 rounds as the fight goes deep. Burns is a good real test for him and we'll know one way or the other after the card but obv Burn

Volk should be better everywhere, his only threat is puncher's chance really and yes KZ has a decent puncher's chance, I guess slim chance of a random sub too but if Ortega can't get him I doubt KZ will. Wouldn't be surprised if he finishes KZ via accumulation of damage.

Dern/Torres is a very interesting fight for me, obv Dern sub or Torres dec. Madsen/Pichel too altho obv too old for either of them to make a title run or anything I wanted Madsen early but didn't get around to it

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5FkzO_Bms8



This just popped up in my youtube feed, UFC 2 in its entirety. The first fight is an 18 year old Welterweight Tae Kwon Do kid versus a 6 foot 8, 208 pound Ninja, lol. Are you not entertained?

This doesn't pertain to MMA, but the odds on Tyson Fury to win by KO for his next fight are surprisingly good.

isn't it a 3 rounder? it isn't the co-main or anything

yeah its 3

yeah can't say any of those 3 fights interest me that much....Yan was handling Aljo pretty easily before the knee (I bet Yan -120, go figure)

Hopefully Chimaev destroys Burns so he can be fast tracked to a better opponent. A lackluster win might derail the hype train a little.

all massive favs like that pretty rare

While yes Yan had taken over and was going to win people are acting like the first fight wasn't close and -500 prices are justified are forgetting Aljo won the first two rounds (some people scored r1 for Yan, I had first two Aljo)

If his cardio holds up and he can keep the pace he kept early in the last fight he can def win 3 rounds standing then not get finished as a gameplan to victory or if he somehow ends up in an advantageous grappling position etc

I'll def be on Aljo and Burns as underdogs this card, I agree both are underdogs but nothing remotely close to the actual prices and of the 3 big favs both are way more live than KZ who basically has a slim one-shot punchers chance (Volk has a chin and is the better striker) and fluke sub chance (Volk will have top position any time he wants it and survived close sub attempts from Ortega who has better BJJ) and that's it

Burns is live both on the feet and ground (he rocked Usman, no one else has really had Usman hurt standing) and with his BJJ and Aljo same deal. They both have too many ways to win to be in +400 etc territory

Got a few other plays i'm considering too, will prob post on fight day once I have the action on

Obv Khamzat deserves to be the fav but we haven't seen him taken to deep waters and he had long covid and his best wins are Li and Meerschaert neither of whom are top 15. Khamzat very may well be Usman's level or even better, but Burns we know is top 5 and it's a big step up for Khamzat. fight being 3 rounds not 5 may help him but he's never been past the 7 minute mark let alone a full 15 etc

Yan too was able to take over and was on the way to beating Aljo before the knee, but he lost two rounds imo and if you lose two rounds to a guy without it going to his strongest position (if Aljo has a dominant position in a grappling exchange) there's no way that you can say the guy who won rounds standing and is primarily a grappler should be +400 or +500 etc

Li Jiliang is actually still top 15 after getting smashed by Chimaev. Burns chances of a fluke win are worse than Korean Zombie's. Chimaev is gonna smash your boy Burns. Whether 1 minute or 15 minutes, it will not be competitive.


Judges all scored round 2 in favor of Sterling but 2 out of 3 scored round 1 in favor of Yan. Yan is a slow starter but having that fight under his belt should play in his favor. I don't think that fight was super competitive but Sterling seemed a bit out of sorts with lots of nervous energy and it wouldn't surprise me to see a better performance from him. Yan is the clear favorite but the price is too heavy and a Sterling win would not be nearly as shocking as Chimaev or Volk losing.

It's impossible to put Chimaev losing on that level too his best win is vs an unranked fighter

Yes he's clearly elite but Burns is top 5

Volk losing would be a legit shock as good as KZ is both are completely known commodities and Volk is better everywhere

Chimaev could be a -800 fav here or even an underdog we just won't know because it's his first time fighting a legit top 5 guy. For every Khabib who actually is close to unbeatable in his prime there is an 'unbeatable' prospect who doesn't become champ. I'll probably be small on Burns just because you're getting a top 5 guy at a ridiculous price; i'd back Burns in a rematch against Usman at that price while yes he's obv a dog there too he is live on the feet and on the mat so surely I have to take a huge price on Burns against a guy who may or may not become champ one day too.

Sterling i'm pretty convinced is about a +200 dog or so, will def be backing him the price is just way too long for him